Where will it rain on Nov 9, 2026?
34%New York City
00
Install
Lake Mead end-of-month water elevation in Dec 2026?
The odds
1,039median
1,0321,041
Median 1,039
How the odds have moved
Median: 1,035 on Oct 20, 1,039 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1033 Ft | 97% | 94¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 1.5K | |
| Above 1034 Ft | 85% | ▼ 2 | 77¢ | 89¢ | $1.12 | 822 |
| Above 1035 Ft | 85% | ▼ 1 | 84¢ | 87¢ | $1.15 | 1.8K |
| Above 1036 Ft | 80% | ▲ 1 | 75¢ | 82¢ | $1.22 | 2.8K |
| Above 1037 Ft | 80% | 78¢ | 85¢ | $1.18 | 2.8K | |
| Above 1038 Ft | 62% | ▼ 13 | 33¢ | 74¢ | $1.35 | 2.6K |
| Above 1039 Ft | 47% | ▼ 23 | 29¢ | 74¢ | $1.35 | 11.8K |
| Above 1040 Ft | 47% | ▼ 22 | 12¢ | 68¢ | $1.47 | 6.8K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Lake Mead
Search ›- What Happens To Palm Springs If Lake Mead Hits Dead PoolPalm Springs draws its tap water from wells refilled with Lake Mead water. At dead pool, its Whitewater recharge basins and Coachella Canal would feel it first. Palm Springs gets about 4.6 inches of rain in a normal year, yet the city runs…
- Nevada has lots of water in a Lake Mead "bank." What happens if water levels keep dropping?Much like a household puts money into a savings account, Southern Nevada has been setting aside part of its allocated Colorado River water in Lake Mead for the last two decades. At the end of 2025, the state had approximately 890,000…
- Rain boosts Lake Powell and Lake Mead. Here’s why drought concerns remainPAGE, AZ (AZFamily) — Recent rain has given Lake Powell and Lake Mead a welcome boost, but a water policy expert says the Colorado River system is still facing serious challenges. Lake Powell’s water level rose about 19 feet between the…
- What Happens If Lake Powell Hits Dead Pool Before Lake MeadBoth reservoirs have two thresholds that matter, and they sit a long way apart. Lake Powell's minimum power pool is 3,490 feet and dead pool is 3,370. On October 18 it stood at 3,520.55, leaving 31 feet above the point where hydropower…
- From Black Hawks to Lake Mead: An Army Veteran Vinds a New Way to LeadAfter 21 years in the Army and 6 years flying emergency medical aircraft, Michael Hester brings his leadership experience home to Lake Mead National Recreation Area. When summer monsoon storms hit Lake Mead National Recreation Area, a…
- RAW: AZ: LAKE POWELL WATER LEVELS STILL A WORRYAppleValleyNewsNow.com Recent rain has boosted water levels at Lake Powell and Lake Mead in Arizona.
- As the Colorado River shrinks, calls to drain Lake Powell growOver the decades, some environmental advocates have argued for removing the Glen Canyon Dam and restoring the canyon, but the idea was always dismissed as too expensive and, because it would wipe out power generation, wildly impractical…
- George Sibley: Don’t blame the Colorado River Upper Basin states for empty reservoirsKyle Roerink’s recent “Writers on the Range” opinion (“A dangerous game of chicken on the Colorado River”) reminds one of Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan’s 1983 caution in a Washington Post op-ed: “Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but…
- Southeast Kansas Farm Show day two in Frontenac, KSKOAM News Now RAW: AZ: LAKE POWELL WATER LEVELS STILL A WORRY AZ: LAKE POWELL AND LAKE MEAD WATER LEVELS RISE RAW: NY: LONG ISLAND HOME DAMAGED BY LIGHTNING Police pursuit in Crawford County leads to juvenile arrest Crash near Jasper on…
- Kyle Roerink: A dangerous game of chicken on the Colorado River(Francisco Kjolseth | The Salt Lake Tribune) Sasha Reed, an ecologists with the United States Geologic Survey navigates a field of debris along the Colorado River in Cataract Canyon during a research trip to study the changes brought on by…
- Water Committee receives update on Colorado River BasinA paddle boat goes past a once nearly submerged island in Lake Mead on Friday, Aug. 7, 2026, near Boulder City, Nev. The Colorado River Basin, shown as upper and lower basins. CHEYENNE – Wyoming and all other members of the Colorado River…
- Lake Powell Dead Pool Fears Ease SlightlyNov 04, 2026 at 11:58 AM EST Nov 05, 2026 at 01:34 PM EST Lake Powell has risen following heavy rains, providing a slight, if perhaps only temporary ease to concerns that dwindling water levels were threatening hydropower production at…
Related markets
All weather & climate ›Highest temperature in New York City on Nov 9, 2026?
57.5median
5665
Median 57.5Middle half 57.3 – 57.8
Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Nov 9, 2026?
86.5median
7988
Median 86.5Middle half 86.2 – 86.7
Los Angeles Daily Temperature High (Nov 9, 2026)
84.4median
7791
Median 84.4Middle half 84.1 – 84.7
Highest temperature in Seattle on Nov 9, 2026?
54.5median
5160
Median 54.5Middle half 54.3 – 54.8
Highest temperature in San Francisco on Nov 9, 2026?
72.5median
6776
Median 72.5Middle half 72.2 – 72.8
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions