What will the peak RONI value be for the NDJ 2026-27 quarter?
2.18median
0.102.40
Median 2.18Middle half 2.07 – 2.29
Install
What will the peak RONI value be during the 2026-27 El Niño season?
The odds
2.70median
1.103.40
Median 2.70Middle half 2.56 – 2.84
How the odds have moved
Median: 2.71 on Oct 20, 2.70 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below 1.5°C | 3% | ▲ 2 | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 3.7K |
| 1.5°C to 1.9°C | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 6.3K | |
| 2.0°C to 2.4°C | 10% | ▲ 5 | 8¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | 32.1K |
| 2.5°C to 2.9°C | 72% | ▼ 1 | 71¢ | 73¢ | $1.37 | 46.1K |
| At least 3.0°C | 14% | ▼ 3 | 10¢ | 21¢ | $4.76 | 60.7K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: El Niño, RONI
Search ›- El Niño-driven drought in Papua New Guinea a ‘national crisis’ as rivers dry up and local farms failAs many as 8 million people have been affected by food shortages, electricity blackouts and health clinic closures Extreme drought driven by an historic El Niño is affecting as many as 8 million people in Papua New Guinea, causing a…
- Taking the blame off El Niño“Even the taxidermied raccoons upstairs have heard of El Niño,” said Emily Becker, pacing the stage in the American Museum of Natural History’s planetarium. Becker and her longtime colleague, Kris Karnauskas, both atmospheric scientists…
- Bolivia declares state of emergency over El NinoLA PAZ: Bolivian President Rodrigo Paz declared a state of emergency Saturday to free up resources for dealing with the impact of the El Nino weather phenomenon, wreaking havoc around the world. The decree also calls for deploying more…
- MTL, super El Nino: Malaysia faces flood and drought risksNST Online What To Read Next
- Bolivia declares state of emergency over El Niño impactsLa Paz, Nov. 1 (SANA) Bolivian President Rodrigo Paz declared a state of emergency on Saturday evening to secure resources to address the impacts of the El Niño climate phenomenon, as worsening droughts and floods cause mounting damage in…
- El Niño threatens India with hotter November, below-normal rainfallNew Delhi: India is likely to experience above-normal temperatures and significantly below-average rainfall in November, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) warning of a potentially weak northeast monsoon. Both daytime and…
- George Russell: MMWD lowering Phoenix Lake levels ahead of El NiñoMarin Independent Journal The Marin Municipal Water District will lower the water level at its Phoenix Lake reservoir to lessen the likelihood of Ross Valley flooding this winter. Read the story ICE detains San Rafael man who sued city…
- India braces for warmer, drier November as strong El Nino persistsMost parts of India are likely to record above-normal maximum temperatures in November, according to the India Meteorological Department's monthly forecast reported by news agency Press Trust of India. Some areas along the Himalayan…
- El Niño, climate change and the new reality for Indian farmersIn this episode of the Agrispective Podcast, host Subramani Ra Mancombu speaks with Mangesh Wange, CEO of Swades Foundation, about the impact of El Niño-driven weather disruptions and climate change on India’s farming sector. The…
- ₹120 cr lifeline: Telangana rolls out drought plan amid El Nino fearsTelangana earmarks ₹120 crore for emergency drinking water in Singur-linked districts amid El Nino fears, ordering borewells, tankers and conservation steps.
- Brewing Super El Niño helps support monster Super Typhoons across the Western PacificTyphoon In-Fa blasted past the northernmost islands of the Northern Mariana Islands in the Western Pacific on Saturday as the equivalent of a powerful Category 4 hurricane. In-Fa had weakened from super typhoon status and was the seventh…
- Forecasters are predicting a warmer and wetter winter. Here's how El Niño will affect your region.This winter is expected to be warmer and wetter, as national weather agencies point to a "Super El Niño" altering weather patterns across the globe. El Niño years are also associated with coastal flooding on the Eastern seaboard and the…
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All weather & climate ›What will the peak RONI value for El Niño be during the NDJ 2026-27 season?
2.66median
0.102.90
Median 2.66Middle half 2.55 – 2.78
Where will it rain on Nov 9, 2026?
34%New York City
00
Highest temperature in New York City on Nov 9, 2026?
57.5median
5665
Median 57.5Middle half 57.3 – 57.8
Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Nov 9, 2026?
86.5median
7988
Median 86.5Middle half 86.2 – 86.7
Los Angeles Daily Temperature High (Nov 9, 2026)
84.4median
7791
Median 84.4Middle half 84.1 – 84.7
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions