Treasury spread 10Y-2Y by Dec 31, 2026

Kalshi Economy › Rates & bonds Closes Dec 31 · $1 today · $799 traded · $194 at stake · prices read 3 h ago

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The odds

13%Above .7%

10Y Yield now 4.864 +0.10%

0.6%1.1%

How the odds have moved

Above .7%: 81% on Oct 6, 13% now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Why it moved

Oct 23, 12 AM ETAbove .7%: 75% → 11%
- China’s January-September fiscal revenue up 5.1% y/yStevens Point · 18 days ago
- Bulgaria's Sopharma's sales jump 39% y/y in Jan-SeptSeeNews · 21 days ago
- Yongxing Special Materials Technology Q3 Net Profit Up 220.7% Y/YTradingView · 19 days ago
Oct 15, 12 AM ETAbove .7%: 24% → 43%
- Bosnia's mobile phone users fall 1% y/y in Q2SeeNews · 26 days ago
- Park's Q2 Earnings Rise Y/Y on Missile Systems GrowthTradingView · 27 days ago
- Kosovo's Pristina airport passenger numbers up 4.1% y/y in Q3SeeNews · 27 days ago
Oct 8, 12 AM ETAbove .7%: 81% → 37%
- Montenegro 9-mo customs revenue rises 5% y/ySeeNews · 34 days ago
- Swedish headline inflation 1.5% y/y in September, flash data showsTradingView · 34 days ago
- Japan's Nittetsu plans 2% y/y increase in H2 copper outputMarketScreener · 34 days ago

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Above .7%	13%	▼ 1	10¢	16¢	$6.25	2.4K
Above .8%	7%	▼ 1	4¢	9¢	$11.11	2.5K
Above .9%	7%		4¢	9¢	$11.11	1.7K
Above 1.00%	7%		2¢	11¢	$9.09	3.3K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Y- Y, Treasury

Search ›

Tesla's China-made EV sales rise 10.3% y/y in OctoberETAuto.com · 6 days agoET Auto Tesla's electric vehicle sales surged by 10.3 percent year-on-year in October, reaching 67,829 units delivered. Despite this annual growth, monthly sales fell 28.9 percent from September, indicating a downturn. The company…
AppLovin Q3 2026 earnings preview: Revenue expected to rise Y/YSeeking Alpha · 6 days agoAppLovin reports Q3 earnings November 4 after the close. Wall Street, on average, expects the advertising technology provider to post a quarterly EPS of $4.34 on revenue of $2.07B (+46.8% Y/Y). The company
Poland’s September power output up 7.23% y/y to 13.59 TWhintellinews.com · 6 days agoPoland’s total electricity generation rose by 7.23% y/y to 13.59 TWh in September, power grid operator PSE said on October 15. Coal (hard coal and ...
AMD in charts: Client revenue Y/Y growth softens in Q3TradingView · 6 days agoTradingView AMD in charts: Client revenue Y/Y growth softens in Q3 More news from Seeking Alpha
Spain September Consumption Of Motor Fuels Rises 3.1% Y/YTradingView · 7 days agoTradingView Spain September Consumption Of Motor Fuels Rises 3.1% Y/Y
Vietnam October exports up 51.4% y/y, inflation edges up to 5.09%TradingView · 7 days agoTradingView Vietnam October exports up 51.4% y/y, inflation edges up to 5.09%
Ukraine's industrial output falls 9.2% y/y in September as arms boom fails to offset steel collapseintellinews.com · 6 days agoUkraine's industrial output falls 9.2% y/y in September as arms boom fails to offset steel collapse
Apple in charts: iPhone revenue climbs 18% Y/YTradingView · 7 days agoTradingView Apple in charts: iPhone revenue climbs 18% Y/Y More news from Seeking Alpha
Raiffeisen Bank Kosovo's Jan-Sept net profit rises 11% y/ySeeNews · 7 days agoAustrian financial services group Raiffeisen Bank International said on Tuesday its Kosovo unit reported a net profit of 29 million euro ($32.4 million) in the first nine months of 2026, up from 26 million euro in the same period of last…
Kazakhstan’s ferroalloy exports to Czechia up 55.8% y/y in Jan-AugTrend.Az · 6 days agoBAKU, Azerbaijan, October 26. Kazakhstan’s ferroalloy exports to the Czech Republic rose by 55.8% year-on-year in volume terms during January-August 2026, reaching 10,937 tonnes compared with 7,019 tonnes in the same period of 2025. This…
Croatia's Q3 GDP expands 2% y/y - think-tankSeeNews · 7 days agoCroatia's economic performance in August suggests a year-on-year gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of 2.0% in the third quarter of 2026, speeding up from 1.7% expansion in the second quarter, the Institute of Economics Zagreb (EIZ)…
Montenegrin hotel operator Primorje's 9-mo net profit plunges 89% y/ySeeNews · 7 days agoMontenegrin hotel operator Primorje Hoteli said its net profit plunged to 88,500 euro ($99,100) in the first nine months of 2026 from 776,300 euro in the same period of last year as expenses increased faster than revenue. EBRD backs second…

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7.11%median

7.07%7.28%

Median 7.11%Middle half 7.09% – 7.13%

Economy › Rates & bonds

How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

21%Below 4.00%

3.9%4.55%

Economy › Rates & bonds

How low will 2-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

49%Below 3.90%

3.8%4.8%

Economy › Rates & bonds

How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

31%Below 4.60%

4.4%5.25%

Economy › Rates & bonds

How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

13%5.10%

4.95%5.4%

Economy › Rates & bonds

How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

9%5.70%

5.6%6.1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 4:59 PM ET

Traded$799 (9,865 contracts)

Today$1

This week$113

At stake$194

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the FRED T10Y2Y series (10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity), measured in percent (not seasonally adjusted), on any daily observation dated between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026 (inclusive), is above .7%, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Prices it is about

10Y Yield^TNX · settles on its price4.864+0.10%
IEFIEF · tracks it91.80−0.07%
TLTTLT · tracks it81.96+0.05%

From 4Progressives Finance. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions