Fed Decision in December?
80%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase80%▲ 3
- No change19%▼ 4
- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps increase1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
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Working families odds
The Fed's next moves, inflation, jobs, growth and recession, trade and tariffs: the market's read on the economy, beside the rates it moves.
The Fed's next meetings
Target range now 3.75–4.00%Cut Hold Hike
- Dec 9Hike 80%4.07%KalshiPolymarket
- Jan 27Hold 77%4.11%KalshiPolymarket
- Mar 17Hold 53%4.19%KalshiPolymarket
- Apr 28Hold 65%4.19%KalshiPolymarket
- Jun 9Hold 66%4.24%Kalshi
- Jul 28Hold 90%4.24%Kalshi
The chance of a cut, a hold or a hike at each meeting, Kalshi and Polymarket averaged where both list it, and the target-range midpoint those odds imply.
Trending working families markets
CPI in October (Oct 2026)
0.2%median
-0.2%1.1%
Median 0.2%Middle half 0.14% – 0.26%
Fed Decision in January?
78%No change
- No change78%▲ 1
- 25 bps increase17%▼ 1
- 25 bps decrease3%
- 50+ bps decrease1%
1 more
- 50+ bps increase1%
US recession by end of 2026?
4%chance
CPI YoY in November (Nov 2026)
3.67%median
2.9%5.1%
Median 3.67%Middle half 3.54% – 3.77%
October Inflation US - Annual
3.7%median
3.15%4.35%
Median 3.7%Middle half 3.67% – 3.73%
CPI YoY in December (Dec 2026)
3.58%median
2.9%5.1%
Median 3.58%Middle half 3.4% – 3.85%
Fed decision in Jul 2027?
92%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate92%
- Cut 25bps4%
- Hike 25bps3%
- Cut >25bps2%▲ 2
1 more
- Hike >25bps1%▲ 1
CPI in December (Dec 2026)
0.13%median
-0.2%1%
Median 0.13%Middle half 0.02% – 0.34%
CPI in November (Nov 2026)
-0.07%median
-0.2%0.6%
Median -0.07%
Recession in 2027?
21%chance▼ 1
Fed decision in Mar 2027?
54%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate54%▼ 2
- Hike 25bps39%▲ 2
- Cut 25bps5%▲ 1
- Cut >25bps1%
1 more
- Hike >25bps1%▼ 1
Fed decision in Apr 2027?
62%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate62%▼ 1
- Hike 25bps15%▲ 2
- Cut 25bps13%
- Cut >25bps5%
1 more
- Hike >25bps1%
Fed decision in Oct 2027?
93%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate93%▲ 1
- Cut 25bps5%
- Hike 25bps3%
- Cut >25bps<1%
1 more
- Hike >25bps<1%
Jobs numbers in Nov 2026?
79Kmedian
-50K150K
Median 79K
Fed decision in Dec 2027?
83%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate83%
- Cut 25bps8%
- Hike 25bps5%
- Cut >25bps3%
1 more
- Hike >25bps2%
Fed decision in Sep 2027?
80%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate80%
- Hike 25bps8%
- Cut 25bps7%
- Cut >25bps5%
1 more
- Hike >25bps3%
US real GDP growth in 2026?
2.3%median
-0.3%6.4%
Median 2.3%Middle half 2.17% – 2.43%
US real GDP growth in Q4 2026?
3.07%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 3.07%Middle half 2.25% – 3.76%
US real GDP growth in 2030?
2.43%median
-0.3%6.4%
Median 2.43%Middle half 1.33% – 3.43%
US real GDP growth in Q1 2027?
2.21%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 2.21%Middle half 1.11% – 3.22%
US real GDP growth in 2033?
2.1%median
-0.3%6.4%
Median 2.1%Middle half 1.3% – 3.82%
Fed decision in Jun 2027?
68%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate68%
- Hike 25bps29%
- Cut 25bps4%
- Cut >25bps1%
1 more
- Hike >25bps<1%
US real GDP growth in 2031?
2.46%median
-0.3%6.4%
Median 2.46%Middle half 1.33% – 3.76%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions