30-year mortgage rate this week (Nov 12, 2026)
7.11%median
7.07%7.28%
Median 7.11%Middle half 7.09% – 7.13%
Install
10Y-2Y spread at the end of 2026
The odds
32.78%median
10Y Yield now 4.864 +0.10% -40%80%
Median 32.78%Middle half 17.69% – 48.89%Above today's price 89%
How the odds have moved
Median: 35.79% on Oct 20, 32.78% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above -30bps | 98% | 95¢ | $1.03 | 326 | ||
| Above -20bps | 98% | 95¢ | $1.03 | 266 | ||
| Above -10bps | 97% | 93¢ | $1.04 | 76.00 | ||
| Above 0bps | 93% | ▼ 1 | 88¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | 224 |
| Above 10bps | 85% | ▼ 2 | 80¢ | 90¢ | $1.11 | 227 |
| Above 20bps | 72% | ▼ 3 | 67¢ | 77¢ | $1.30 | 676 |
| Above 30bps | 55% | ▼ 4 | 50¢ | 60¢ | $1.67 | 1.9K |
| Above 40bps | 37% | ▼ 5 | 32¢ | 42¢ | $2.38 | 2.3K |
| Above 50bps | 24% | ▼ 1 | 21¢ | 26¢ | $3.85 | 756 |
| Above 60bps | 13% | ▼ 1 | 9¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | 344 |
| Above 70bps | 6% | ▼ 1 | 2¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | 2.2K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Y- Y
Search ›- Berkshire Hathaway Q3 operating earnings -6% Y/Y, cash at $377.4BBerkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B) Q3 earnings show a dip in operating profit, rising revenue, and record cash levels. Read more here. - Berkshire Hathaway press release (BRK.A) (BRK.B): Q3 operating earnings of $12.7B (-5.8% Y/Y). - Net…
- Romania’s retail sales down 2.7% y/y in Q3, show sighs of recoveryMoscow bar raids feed fears of "stealth mobilisation campaign underway in Russia Missile War Monitor: Ukrainian drones strike Kirishi, home of Russia's second-largest refinery Russia's cheap RM-48U ballistic missiles threaten Kyiv's Dnipro…
- Canada's Average Hourly Wages Among Employees Up 2.2% Y/Y in October; Bloomberg Survey Saw 2.1% Y/Y Rise... Canada's Average Hourly Wages Among Employees Up 2.2% Y/Y in October; Bloomberg Survey Saw 2.1% Y/Y Rise Published on 11/06/2026 at 09:20 am EST Latest news about TSX Composite TSX posts weekly gain as metal mining shares rally…
- Financials Earnings Scorecard: 87% beat EPS estimates; Y/Y earnings growth mixedFinancial earnings recap: 15 sector leaders report strong beat rates, but profit growth trails revenue. Financial stocks took center stage this week as investors digested a wave of third-quarter earnings from major sector leaders. The…
- Utilities Earnings Scoreboard: 86% beat EPS estimates, 93% post Y/Y earnings growthUtilities earnings recap: most S&P 500 firms beat EPS estimates despite mixed revenue. Utilities companies delivered largely positive earnings results this week, with most S&P 500 utilities reporting higher earnings year over year. Revenue…
- Real Estate Earnings Scorecard: 40% firms beat revenue estimates, 60% post Y/Y growthReal estate earnings recap: most companies beat FFO estimates despite weaker revenue trends. The real estate sector saw most companies beating earnings estimates last week, but lagging on the revenue front, with only 60% of them showing an…
- Consumer staples earnings scoreboard: 75% beat EPS estimates, 87.5% post Y/Y earnings growthConsumer staples earnings roundup: see which companies beat estimates, raised guidance, and why the sector is outperforming. Consumer staple companies remained in the spotlight this week as investors digested quarterly results from Estee…
- Franklin Q4 Earnings Beat Estimates on Higher Revenues, AUM Rises Y/YFranklin Templeton, Inc. BEN reported fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 (ended Sept. 30, 2026) adjusted earnings of 94 cents per share, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 78 cents per share. The bottom line also improved from 67…
- Enbridge in charts: Q3 liquids pipeline earnings fall as gas transmission jumps Y/YMore on Enbridge Inc.
- Kratos Defense Q3 Earnings Outpace Estimates, Revenues Increase Y/YKratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. KTOS reported third-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings of 24 cents per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 21 cents by 14.3%. The bottom line also increased 71.4% from the year-ago…
- Earnings Scoreboard: 86% of reporting firms beat EPS estimates, 78% post Y/Y earnings growthEarnings season reaches peak intensity this week as 142 companies report quarterly results, anchored by major releases across mega-cap technology, pharmaceuticals, energy, aerospace, and consumer ... Earnings season reaches peak intensity…
- TKR Q3 Earnings Beat, Increase Y/Y on Pricing and Tariff RefundsThe Timken Company TKR reported third-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.65, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.47 by 12.24%. The bottom line increased 20.4% year over year, supported by favorable pricing, higher…
Related markets
All rates & bonds ›How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
21%Below 4.00%
3.9%4.55%
How low will 2-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
49%Below 3.90%
3.8%4.8%
How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
31%Below 4.60%
4.4%5.25%
How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
13%5.10%
4.95%5.4%
How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
9%5.70%
5.6%6.1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions