How high will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026?

Kalshi Economy › Rates & bonds Closes Nov 30 · $140 traded · $121 at stake · prices read 9 h ago

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The odds

41%5.38% or above

30Y Yield now 5.256 −0.08%

5.36%5.67%

How the odds have moved

5.38% or above: 66% on Nov 2, 41% now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Why it moved

Nov 3, 3 PM ET5.38% or above: 54% → 69%
- Treasury Partners' Richard Saperstein on markets, AI, trimming equitiesCNBC · 6 days ago
- Treasury yields rise as investors weigh midterm vote, jobs data and Iran tensionsCNBC · 7 days ago
- Treasury yields fall as investors crowd into bonds for safety amid election stock sell-offCNBC · 6 days ago

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
5.38% or above	41%	▼ 5	36¢	46¢	$2.17
5.39% or above	38%	▼ 5	33¢	43¢	$2.33
5.4% or above	36%	▼ 4	31¢	41¢	$2.44
5.41% or above	33%	▼ 5	28¢	38¢	$2.63	1.00
5.42% or above	32%	▼ 4	28¢	36¢	$2.78	71.00
5.43% or above	29%	▼ 4	24¢	34¢	$2.94
5.44% or above	26%	▼ 5	21¢	31¢	$3.23
5.45% or above	24%	▼ 6	19¢	29¢	$3.45	40.00
5.46% or above	22%	▼ 5	17¢	27¢	$3.70	2.00
5.47% or above	21%	▼ 4	16¢	26¢	$3.85
5.48% or above	20%	▼ 4	15¢	25¢	$4.00
5.49% or above	20%	▼ 4	15¢	25¢	$4.00	119
5.5% or above	15%	▼ 5	10¢	20¢	$5.00	1.00
5.51% or above	15%	▼ 3	9¢	19¢	$5.26
5.52% or above	15%	▼ 2	10¢	19¢	$5.26	3.00
5.53% or above	15%	▼ 2	13¢	19¢	$5.26	137
5.54% or above	11%	▼ 2	6¢	16¢	$6.25
5.55% or above	9%	▼ 3	4¢	14¢	$7.14
5.56% or above	8%	▼ 3	3¢	13¢	$7.69
5.57% or above	7%	▼ 2	2¢	11¢	$9.09	330
5.58% or above	7%	▼ 2	2¢	12¢	$8.33
5.59% or above	6%	▼ 2	1¢	11¢	$9.09
5.6% or above	6%	▼ 2	1¢	11¢	$9.09
5.61% or above	5%	▼ 1	1¢	9¢	$11.11	348
5.62% or above	5%	▼ 1	1¢	8¢	$12.50
5.63% or above	5%	▼ 1	1¢	8¢	$12.50
5.64% or above	5%	▼ 1	1¢	8¢	$12.50
5.65% or above	4%	▼ 1	1¢	7¢	$14.29	556
5.66% or above	4%	▼ 1		7¢	$14.29
5.67% or above	4%	▼ 1		7¢	$14.29

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Treasury

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Treasury yields steady as investors await more economic dataCNBC · 20 h agoBond yields were holding steady on Monday as investors awaited fresh economic data, after a strong employment print Friday. Yields on 10-year U.S. Treasurys — the main benchmark for mortgages, auto loans and credit card debt — were flat at…
Goldman says 'the pieces are in place' for a shift in Treasury yields, global 10-yearsCNBC · 22 h agoTurbulence in stock markets and a drop in energy costs have helped drive major government bond yields lower and may continue to affect them, according to Goldman Sachs. "The pieces are in place for ...
Treasury Cuts Crypto Exchange MEXC Off From US Financial SystemDecrypt · 3 days agoThe U.S. Treasury Department has moved to sever crypto exchange MEXC Global from the American financial system, accusing it of facilitating at least $16 billion in illicit transactions tied to Iran, North Korea and Russia. In an order…
Why a Hyperliquid Treasury Firm Wants to Become a US Futures BrokerDecrypt · 3 days agoHyperliquid Strategies built its business around holding HYPE. Now it wants to help Americans trade on Hyperliquid, too. The Nasdaq-listed treasury firm, which trades as PURR and is chaired by former Barclays CEO Bob Diamond, disclosed in…
Citizens Intros Treasury Intel For Commercial ClientsPYMNTS.com · 10 h agoCitizens Bank has introduced a digital platform designed for its commercial banking clients. Citizens Treasury Intelligence includes “multi-bank cash visibility, analytics, forecasting and workflow tools” designed to help customers manage…
Kenya Treasury Would Give Up Bank Rate VetoThe Rio Times · 10 h agoKENYA · BANKING AND LAW The change could ease the threat of refunds to borrowers who were charged rates the Treasury never approved, though it is unclear whether it would reach past loans. For US readers it matters to investors in Kenyan…
Buying The Index Dip And Adding Treasury DurationSeeking Alpha · 18 h agoBuy the dip? See why the semiconductor-led selloff may be oversold, how AI demand supports tech, and why Treasuries may hedge risk now. - The equity market's sharp selloff, driven by semiconductor weakness, reflects policy uncertainty from…
Treasury yields rise as CPI data tests mortgage rate outlookMortgage Professional · 17 h agoA blowout October jobs report pushed bond markets higher; fresh inflation data could extend the pressure on home loan costs US Treasury yields climbed Monday as bond markets absorbed a stronger-than-expected October jobs report and shifted…
Tradeweb partners with BNY to expand corporate treasury fund platformSeeking Alpha · 14 h agoTradeweb and BNY are expanding corporate treasury investment options via LiquidityDirect. Tradeweb Markets (TW) is collaborating with BNY's (BNY) LiquidityDirect to expand investment options through Tradeweb's portal for corporate treasury…
Strategy Buys 1,036 Bitcoin for $81M, Expanding Corporate Treasury HoldingsCrypto Economy · 15 h agoHome > Companies > Strategy Buys 1,036 Bitcoin for $81M, Expanding Corporate Treasury Holdings — Strategy (@Strategy) November 9, 2026 According to the filing, the company paid a cumulative $64.16 billion for its Bitcoin position, with an…
Jocelyn Ledward KC appointed to lead Treasury counselMirage News · 12 h agoWollongong-based online news outlet covering Australia and beyond. If you have anything newsworthy - a story, video or picture to share with us, please email us. Jocelyn Ledward KC has been appointed as First Senior Treasury Counsel to…
From Chatbots to Economic Agents: Autonomous Treasury Management on BaseDEV Community · 20 h agoChatbots produce text. Economic agents allocate capital. We ran this transition on Base (Chain ID 8453). Our autonomous treasury runner operates under address 0x92Aff59709b03b9373b8fA887D24953D60fAd919. Here is the raw mechanics of how it…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onU.S. Department of the Treasury

Trading closesNov 30, 2026 3:30 PM ET

Traded$140 (1,607 contracts)

This week$140

At stake$121

In the news86 headlines today, 460 this week

Followed here sinceNov 1, 2026

The rules

If the daily published par yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury is above 5.37% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Prices it is about

30Y Yield^TYX · settles on its price5.256−0.08%
TLTTLT · tracks it81.96+0.05%

From 4Progressives Finance. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions