Chicago Fed National Activity Index for October (October 2026)
-0.03median
-0.400.40
Median -0.03Middle half -0.16 – 0.10
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Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September (September 2026)
Settled 0.07A day before, traders had a median of 0.00
The last odds before it closed
0.02median
- ✓ Above -0.4097%
- ✓ Above -0.3095%▼ 3
- ✓ Above -0.2095%▲ 5
- ✓ Above -0.1095%▲ 21
- ✓ Above 0.0054%▲ 5
- Above 0.1034%▲ 5
- Above 0.2019%▲ 5
How the odds have moved
Median: 0.02 on Oct 19, 0.02 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Last odds | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ Above -0.40 | 97% | 100 | ||||
| ✓ Above -0.30 | 95% | 65.00 | ||||
| ✓ Above -0.20 | 95% | 40.00 | ||||
| ✓ Above -0.10 | 95% | 500 | ||||
| ✓ Above 0.00 | 54% | 624 | ||||
| ✗ Above 0.10 | 34% | 343 | ||||
| ✗ Above 0.20 | 19% | 143 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
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All inflation ›CPI in October (Oct 2026)
0.2%median
-0.2%1.1%
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0.17%median
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Median 0.17%Middle half 0.11% – 0.24%
CPI YoY in November (Nov 2026)
3.66%median
2.9%5.1%
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October Inflation US - Annual
3.7%median
3.15%4.35%
Median 3.7%Middle half 3.67% – 3.73%
Core CPI YoY in November (Nov 2026)
2.74%median
1.9%3.6%
Median 2.74%Middle half 2.6% – 2.85%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions