Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Contracts
Jon Ossoff
24%
▼ 1
19¢
28¢
$3.57
1.00
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
20%
▼ 1
15¢
24¢
$4.17
200
Gavin Newsom
12%
▼ 1
7¢
16¢
$6.25
Kamala Harris
5%
0¢
9¢
$10.64
Pete Buttigieg
5%
0¢
9¢
$10.75
Josh Shapiro
5%
9¢
$11.11
Andy Beshear
4%
9¢
$11.36
Mark Kelly
4%
8¢
$12.20
James Talarico
4%
8¢
$12.50
Abdul El-Sayed
4%
8¢
$13.16
Raphael Warnock
4%
7¢
$13.70
Wes Moore
4%
7¢
$13.89
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Vermont Democratic, Jon Ossoff, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Gavin Newsom’s sees dramatic shift in presidential odds after midterm electionCalifornia Post · 2 days agoCalifornia Gov. Gavin Newsom‘s hopes of making it to the White House may be taking a hit after the midterm elections, with his odds of winning the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination plunging to an all-time low on prediction markets…
Gov Gavin Newsom’s death row commutations spark backlashFox News · 3 days agoFox News Gov Gavin Newsom’s death row commutations spark backlash Orange County DA Todd Spitzer criticizes California Gov. Gavin Newsom for issuing the largest mass clemency orders in U.S. history on ‘Fox News @ Night.’
Why Republicans should fear Georgia Democrat Jon OssoffNew York Post · 3 days agoRepublicans have a lot of things to worry about after their catastrophic 2026 midterm, and one of them might be Jon Ossoff, the newly reelected Democratic senator from Georgia. The presidential buzz had begun even before Ossoff won…
Gavin Newsom moves to commute death sentences of more than 500 inmatesFox News · 3 days agoFox News Gavin Newsom moves to commute death sentences of more than 500 inmates Former DOJ prosecutor Jim Trusty discusses Gov. Gavin Newsom's decision to commute California death row sentences and the investigations into Rep. Ilhan Omar…
Gov. Gavin Newsom to commute death row sentences in CaliforniaCBS News · 4 days agoCBS News Los Angeles is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KCAL-TV and channel 9, CBS News Los Angeles offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Gov. Gavin…
California Gov. Gavin Newsom commutes all death sentencesNBC News · 4 days agoBREAKING: Gov. Gavin Newsom commutes all death sentences in California Gov. Gavin Newsom commuted all California death sentences on Thursday, declaring that “state-sanctioned killing is incompatible with” values in America’s most populous…
California Gov. Gavin Newsom Commutes Hundreds of Death Row SentencesRolling Stone · 4 days agoJust days after Democrats took control of Congress, California Gov. Gavin Newsom has commuted the sentences of 548 prisoners on the state’s death row to life without parole. “State-sanctioned killing is incompatible with California’s…
Abdul El-Sayed’s Win Could Launch Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Into the 2028 RaceThe Washington Sun · 4 days agoNovember 5, 2026 05:13 a.m. DETROIT — Democrat Abdul El-Sayed won Michigan’s Senate race with an unapologetic, progressive approach to politics — the type many Democrats were skeptical could win in a battleground state. He shares that…
Gavin Newsom wipes out California's death row in historic mass commutationFox News · 4 days agoDecades after his daughter Polly Klaas was murdered, Marc Klaas speaks out against California Gov. Gavin Newsom's potential plan to commute California’s remaining death sentences, calling the move a betrayal of crime victims and voters…
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions