Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
3%chance
Install
Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2028?
The odds
10%chance
How the odds have moved
Yes: 13% on Oct 20, 10% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 9¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 19.1K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: earthquake, California
Search ›- Preliminary 2.4 magnitude earthquake jolts Southern CaliforniaA small earthquake rattled the San Fernando Valley Saturday morning, shaking residents across several communities. A small earthquake rattled the San Fernando Valley Saturday morning, shaking residents across several communities. The…
- Preliminary 5.0 magnitude earthquake jolts Northern CaliforniaA 5.0 magnitude earthquake shook the coast of Northern California Wednesday night, rattling coastal communities across Humboldt County. The offshore tremor struck at 8:56 p.m. roughly 69 miles west of Petrolia at a depth of approximately 6…
- Strong earthquake shakes Japan, shattering store windows and injuring at least 22A strong earthquake shook central Japan early Sunday, shattering store windows, causing people to flee buildings and leaving at least 22 people injured, according to local media. Japan’s Meteorological Agency put the quake’s magnitude at…
- Strong earthquake shakes central Japan, shattering store windows and injuring at least 22Breaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. A strong earthquake…
- Southern California's "Fall Weather" may have to waitCBS News Bay Area Morning Edition Weekend 7am CBS News Chicago Saturday at 9am CBS Colorado Mornings Weekend CBS News Los Angeles Weekend 7am CBS News Miami This Morning 10am CBS News New York Saturday 10am KDKA News This Morning Saturday…
- 2 licensed skydivers die after midair collision in CaliforniaUpdated on: November 7, 2026 / 10:31 AM CST / CBS/AP Two skydivers who were taking part in an organized skydiving event in California were killed after colliding midair and plummeting to the ground. The accident occurred Friday and…
- Skydivers Die After Colliding About 150 Feet Above CaliforniaNov 07, 2026 at 07:43 AM EST Two skydivers died after they collided with each other midair over southern California, the company organising their jump said. Lake Elsinore-based Skydive Elsinore said the experienced skydivers had a “normal…
- 2 licensed skydivers die after midair collison in CaliforniaNovember 7, 2026 / 10:52 AM EST / CBS/AP Two skydivers who were taking part in an organized skydiving event in California were killed after colliding midair and plummeting to the ground. The accident occurred Friday and involved two…
- Two skydivers die after colliding over Southern CaliforniaTwo skydivers were killed when they collided during a jump over the city of Lake Elsinore in Southern California on Friday, officials said. The two, described as licensed and experienced, were at the end of their jump when they collided…
- Preliminary 4.7 magnitude earthquake shakes Southern CaliforniaA 4.7 magnitude earthquake shook Baja California on Election Day Tuesday with some Californians also feeling the effects. A 4.7 magnitude earthquake shook Baja California on Election Day Tuesday with some Californians also feeling the…
- Friday evening Northern California weather forecast - November 6, 2026CBS News Friday evening Northern California weather forecast - November 6, 2026 CPUC considering proposed decision on SB 884 implementation Sacramento steakhouse Echo & Rig abruptly closes Preserving and celebrating traditions during…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions