How high will the price of fertilizer get this year? (2026)

Kalshi Economy › Inflation Closes Dec 31 · $6 today · $2.8K traded · $1.1K at stake · prices read 29 min ago

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The odds

4%Above $1000

$900$1,700

How the odds have moved

Above $1000: 4% on Oct 20, 4% now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Above $1000	4%	▼ 3	1¢	7¢	$14.29	34.4K
Above $1100	4%	▼ 4	1¢	7¢	$14.29	12.1K
Above $1200	4%	▼ 4	1¢	6¢	$16.67	18.7K
Above $1300	4%	▼ 4	1¢	6¢	$16.67	3.9K
Above $1400	4%	▼ 3	4¢	7¢	$14.29	1.4K
Above $1500	4%	▼ 3	4¢	7¢	$14.29	1.7K
Above $1600	3%	▼ 1	1¢	5¢	$20.00	566

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news

No recent headlines name this market's subject.

Related markets

All inflation ›

Economy › Inflation

CPI in October (Oct 2026)

0.2%median

-0.2%1.1%

Median 0.2%Middle half 0.14% – 0.26%

Economy › Inflation

Core CPI in October (Oct 2026)

0.17%median

-0.1%1.1%

Median 0.17%Middle half 0.11% – 0.24%

Economy › Inflation

CPI YoY in November (Nov 2026)

3.66%median

2.9%5.1%

Median 3.66%Middle half 3.54% – 3.77%

Economy › Inflation

October Inflation US - Annual

3.7%median

3.15%4.35%

Median 3.7%Middle half 3.67% – 3.73%

Economy › Inflation

Core CPI YoY in November (Nov 2026)

2.74%median

1.9%3.6%

Median 2.74%Middle half 2.6% – 2.85%

Economy › Inflation

CPI YoY in December (Dec 2026)

3.55%median

2.9%5.1%

Median 3.55%Middle half 3.4% – 3.85%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onUSDA

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$2.8K (72,732 contracts)

Today$6

At stake$1.1K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the average price of Urea (46-0-0) fertilizer in dollars per ton according to the United States Department of Agriculture’s Illinois Production Cost Reports is above $1000 after Issuance and before January 01, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions