VA-06 House winner? (2028)

Kalshi Elections › House Closes Nov 7, 2029 · $2.3K traded · $2.1K at stake · prices read 2 h ago

The odds

88%Republican party

Republican party88%▲ 1
Democratic party12%▼ 1

How the odds have moved

Republican party: 96% on Nov 5, 88% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Republican party	88%	▲ 1	86¢	91¢	$1.10	1.8K
Democratic party	12%	▼ 1	10¢	13¢	$7.69	6.0K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: VA- House

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VA House District 20 Special Election Results: Vasquez Luna vs. Fritzen [Live Updates]Woodbridge · 6 days agoPRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY, VA —Polls have officially closed across Virginia, and election officials are tabulating ballots cast in Tuesday's general election. Results from races statewide are expected to be reported throughout the evening…
Democrat Rob Sand projected to be Iowa’s next governor, flipping the seat@WVVA · 6 days agoWVVA Democrat Rob Sand projected to be Iowa’s next governor, flipping the seat Midterm election results - three things to know U.S. Senator Chuck Schumer's press gaggle after voting ROAD ALERT: Closure impacting Fincastle Turnpike in…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onUnited States Congress, Associated Press, Decision Desk HQ

Trading closesNov 7, 2029 10:00 AM ET

Traded$2.3K (7,793 contracts)

This week$2.3K

At stake$2.1K

Followed here sinceNov 5, 2026

The rules

If the House member sworn in for the 6th District of Virginia for the term beginning in 2029 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

The race

The candidates, the incumbent, every market on this race and its coverage: the race on 4Progressives Politics ›

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions