ISM Manufacturing PMI in November (Nov 2026)

Kalshi Economy › Inflation Closes Dec 1 · $107 traded · $107 at stake · prices read 30 min ago

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The odds

55.2median

5160

Median 55.2Middle half 54.2 – 56.2

How the odds have moved

Median: 55.2 on Nov 8, 55.2 now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
At least 52	96%		93¢	98¢	$1.02
At least 53	93%	▲ 1	89¢	97¢	$1.03	1.00
At least 54	81%		76¢	86¢	$1.16	77.00
At least 55	56%		51¢	61¢	$1.64	77.00
At least 56	29%		24¢	34¢	$2.94	2.00
At least 57	12%		7¢	17¢	$5.88	2.00
At least 58	4%	▼ 2	2¢	6¢	$16.67	2.00
At least 59	3%	▼ 1	1¢	5¢	$20.00	2.00

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: ISM Manufacturing PMI

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Manufacturing PMI® at 55.5%; October 2026 ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report@PRNewswire · 7 days agoNov 02, 2026, 10:00 ET TEMPE, Ariz., Nov. 2, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in October for the 10th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI®…
U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI at a Three-Month High in October; Production & New Orders Accelerating; Employment ModeratingHaver Analytics · 7 days agoHaver Analytics U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI at a Three-Month High in October; Production & New Orders Accelerating; Employment Moderating - ISM Mfg. PMI up to 55.5 in Oct.; 10th straight month of expansion. - Production (59.0) highest since…
US ISM manufacturing PMI for October 55.5 versus 54.5 estimateinvestingLive · 7 days agoDetails of the report. Manufacturing PMI: 55.5 vs 54.5 expected. Prior 54.5. Prices paid: 75.2 vs 77.5 expected. Prior 77.9. Employment: 52.4 vs 52.0 expected. Prior 52.7. US manufacturing growth accelerated in October, with the Institute…
Nasdaq 100 Forecast: Chip Stocks Rebound After US Midterm Sell-OffFXEmpire · 3 days agoThe Nasdaq 100 rebounded on Friday after hitting the strong key support level but closed the week in negative territory with 4.92% loss. The rebound on Friday developed as buyers returned to semiconductor stocks. I think that the rebound…
US ISM Manufacturing PMI improces to 55.5 in October vs. 54.6 expectedFXStreet · 7 days agoBusiness activity in the United States (US) manufacturing sector expanded at an accelerating pace in October, with the Institute for Supply Management's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) improving to 55.5 in October from 54.5…
2 Funds to Boost Your Portfolio as Manufacturing Activity AcceleratesTradingView · 4 days agoThe manufacturing industry has started to regain momentum after facing several challenging months. Despite persistent inflationary pressures and geopolitical uncertainties, the sector has continued to show signs of improvement this year…
Japanese Yen gives back gains as US Dollar recovers from election shockFXStreet · 5 days agoThe Japanese Yen (JPY ) has given away most of the previous gains on Thursday, as the US Dollar (USD) bounced up from highs with the dust of the midterm elections settling and the strong US macroeconomic data coming to the fore. The…
Logistics Alert: Capacity SHRINKS for 11 Straight MonthsFreightWaves · 6 days agoThe latest ISM Manufacturing PMI and LMI reports confirm what many in logistics already feel: demand is strong, but capacity is heavily constrained. Learn why transportation capacity is in contraction for the 11th straight month, pushing…
ADP Employment Report expected to show slower job growth in OctoberFXStreet · 6 days agoThe Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Research Institute is due to release October’s private-sector employment report on Wednesday. The market consensus anticipates a moderate slowdown in job creation, with the ADP Employment Change expected…
LOGIC Macro Regime (@logicmacroregime)Substack · 7 days agoUS 🇺🇸 factories accelerated. Cost pressures eased, but stayed high. October’s ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.5 from 54.5. Production reached its strongest reading since November 2021, while the Prices Index slipped to 75.2 from 77.9…
ISM: Manufacturing sector expanded in OctoberSteel Market Update · 6 days agoWritten by Brett Linton US manufacturing activity expanded for the 10th consecutive month in October, according to supply executives in the Institute for Supply Management (ISM)’s latest report. The October ISM Manufacturing PMI…
Rupee Gains 9 Paise to 94.75 vs US Dollar on FII InflowsRediff · 6 days agoRupee Rises 13 Paise to 94.71 vs US Dollar on Fund Inflows Rediff MoneyWiz Key PointsThe Indian Rupee settled with a 9 paise gain at 94.75 against the US dollar.Inflow of foreign funds and massive buying in domestic equity markets…

Related markets

All inflation ›

Economy › Inflation

CPI in October (Oct 2026)

0.2%median

-0.2%1.1%

Median 0.2%Middle half 0.14% – 0.26%

Economy › Inflation

Core CPI in October (Oct 2026)

0.17%median

-0.1%1.1%

Median 0.17%Middle half 0.11% – 0.24%

Economy › Inflation

CPI YoY in November (Nov 2026)

3.66%median

2.9%5.1%

Median 3.66%Middle half 3.54% – 3.77%

Economy › Inflation

October Inflation US - Annual

3.7%median

3.15%4.35%

Median 3.7%Middle half 3.67% – 3.73%

Economy › Inflation

Core CPI YoY in November (Nov 2026)

2.74%median

1.9%3.6%

Median 2.74%Middle half 2.6% – 2.85%

Economy › Inflation

CPI YoY in December (Dec 2026)

3.55%median

2.9%5.1%

Median 3.55%Middle half 3.4% – 3.85%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onISM

Trading closesDec 1, 2026 9:59 AM ET

Traded$107 (163 contracts)

This week$107

At stake$107

Followed here sinceNov 2, 2026

The rules

If the headline PMI value in the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business for Nov 2026, as published by ISM (one decimal place), is at least 52, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions