Alabama's 1st District margin of victory
49%Carl, 24+ pts
2160
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Alabama's 6th District margin of victory
The odds
48%Palmer, 18+ pts
1548
How the odds have moved
Palmer, 18+ pts: 85% on Oct 24, 48% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Why it moved
- Nov 4, 8 PM ETPalmer, 18+ pts: 79% → 48%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palmer, 18+ pts | 48% | $2.10 | 35.00 | |||
| Palmer, 21+ pts | 48% | 87¢ | $1.15 | 64.00 | ||
| Palmer, 24+ pts | 48% | $2.10 | 222 | |||
| Palmer, 27+ pts | 45% | $2.22 | 800 | |||
| Palmer, 30+ pts | 45% | $2.22 | 420 | |||
| Palmer, 33+ pts | 45% | $2.22 | 27.00 | |||
| Palmer, 36+ pts | 24% | 51¢ | $1.96 | 831 | ||
| Palmer, 39+ pts | 24% | 65¢ | $1.54 | 1.2K | ||
| Palmer, 42+ pts | 11% | 25¢ | $4.00 | 1.4K | ||
| Palmer, 45+ pts | 6% | 25¢ | $4.00 | 210 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Alabama
Search ›- Melania Trump secures $7.2M for foster care scholarships at LSU ahead of Alabama showdownFirst lady Melania Trump announced scholarships in partnership with her Be Best and "Fostering the Future" initiatives Saturday at Louisiana State University in Baton Rouge. BATON ROUGE, La. — First lady Melania Trump announced a $7.2…
- Melania Trump appears on LSU Jumbotron as crowd erupts into 'USA' chants during Alabama gameFirst lady Melania Trump appears on the Jumbotron at LSU's Tiger Stadium as fans cheer and chant "USA" during a celebration of her $7.2 million "Fostering the Future" scholarship initiative. (Jasmine Baehr/Fox News Digital) Melania Trump…
- Melania Trump garners cheers from LSU-Alabama fans as she brings $7.2M in scholarships for foster kidsBATON ROUGE, La. — Melania Trump garnered loud applause at the Louisiana State-Alabama game on Saturday as she touted a $7.2 million scholarship endowment for foster children. The first lady appeared on the Jumbotron, waving from her box…
- First openly gay sheriff in Alabama is Navy SEAL who vows to cut ties with FlockIn the blue tide overtaking the country this week, Alabama voters elected the first openly gay sheriff as well as the state’s first openly transgender legislator. Democrat Brett Jones, in Madison County, defeated a two-term Republican…
- Alabama Attorney General-elect Katherine Robertson discusses prioritiesBIRMINGHAM, Ala. (WIAT) -- Alabama Attorney General-elect Katherine Robertson joined Alabama's 42 to discuss what Alabamians should expect from her. Kashim Chowdhury had secretly held multiple public sector jobs on full-time salaries. By…
- Alabama business claims major victories in 2026 general electionThe Business Council of Alabama (BCA) and its political arm, WorkPAC (formerly ProgressPAC), are celebrating a successful 2026 election cycle, with 122 of the 127 candidates supported by the organization, or 96%, securing victories in…
- Alabama Farmers Federation endorses Barry Moore for U.S. CongressThe Alabama Farmers Federation announced its support for Congressman Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) in the upcoming Alabama 1st Congressional District general election on November 5, 2024. Moore, according to the group’s leadership, has been a…
- Alabama legislative elections show Democratic gains, limited competitionBIRMINGHAM, Ala. – Democrats gained ground in Alabama legislative races Tuesday, narrowing Republican leads in many districts and flipping four Republican-held seats, according to unofficial election returns. But the results also highlight…
- Alabama farmers celebrate election wins, prepare to work with leadersAlabama Farmers Federation members celebrated FarmPAC victories Tuesday night while vowing to stay engaged with elected officials to strengthen agriculture, forestry and rural Alabama. “Although national races reflected a shift toward more…
- Sen. Keith Kelly: Protecting Medicare Advantage is about protecting Alabama seniorsIn Alabama, we believe in keeping our word. When someone works hard, pays their taxes, raises a family, and contributes to their community for decades, they ought to be able to count on the commitments made to them. That principle is…
- Central Alabama marks Veterans Day with events throughout the regionBIRMINGHAM, Ala. — Birmingham’s 79th National Veterans Day Parade will headline several events honoring veterans across the region, including a $10,000 donation to support veterans’ recovery, a school assembly and free admission at the…
- Alabama Republican Sen. Richard Shelby Won’t Seek Reelection in 2022Sen. Richard Shelby (R-Ala.) has announced he won’t seek re-election in 2022, according to a statement released on Monday by the 86-year-old lawmaker who has previously said he will retire at the end of the current Congress. “Although I…
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All elections ›Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory
6.45median
-132
Median 6.45Middle half 5.52 – 7.38
Alabama's 5th District margin of victory
7%Strong, 10+ pts
737
Alabama's 7th District margin of victory
32.6median
948
Median 32.6Middle half 30.3 – 36
Arkansas's 1st District margin of victory
37.4median
2451
Median 37.4Middle half 33.9 – 45.9
Arkansas's 2nd District margin of victory
1.96median
-130
Median 1.96Middle half 1.36 – 2.55
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
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