How many new housing units will NYC permit in 2026?
26,550median
20,00044,000
Median 26,550Middle half 23,341 – 29,075
Install
NYPD uniformed headcount at the end of 2026?
The odds
34,979median
34,00036,000
Median 34,979Middle half 34,632 – 35,353
How the odds have moved
Median: 34,971 on Oct 19, 34,979 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 34,250 | 93% | ▲ 1 | 89¢ | 96¢ | $1.04 | 205 |
| Above 34,500 | 85% | ▲ 1 | 81¢ | 89¢ | $1.12 | |
| Above 34,750 | 66% | ▲ 1 | 62¢ | 70¢ | $1.43 | |
| Above 35,000 | 49% | ▲ 1 | 45¢ | 52¢ | $1.92 | 223 |
| Above 35,250 | 32% | ▲ 1 | 28¢ | 36¢ | $2.78 | |
| Above 35,500 | 15% | 11¢ | 19¢ | $5.26 | ||
| Above 35,750 | 8% | 4¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: NYPD
Search ›- NYPD details shootout with armed suspect in the BronxCBS News - The 5:33 | Legacy of the LIRR Massacre - On The Dot with David Schechter: Wildfires & Climate Change NYPD details shootout with armed suspect in the Bronx Police shoot man who fired at them following altercation in the Bronx…
- NYPD officers return fire at gunman in the Bronx, police sayCBS News - The 5:33 | Legacy of the LIRR Massacre - On The Dot with David Schechter: Wildfires & Climate Change NYPD officers return fire at gunman in the Bronx, police say First Alert Weather: Sun and clouds, high of 69 on Tuesday NYPD…
- Retired NYPD cop allegedly threatened to behead Fla. pol over mosque support: ‘Off with his head’A retired NYPD cop living in Florida allegedly threatened to behead a local politician in a deranged social media rant, landing him behind bars and facing a possible decade-long prison sentence. Rodolo Mienert, 68, was allegedly linked to…
- Retired NYPD officer arrested after 'off with his head' post over Florida mosque expansionDuring an Oct. 27 Pinellas County Commission meeting, Rodolfo Mienert argued against a mosque expansion. Days later, he was arrested after allegedly calling for the beheading of a commissioner. (Pinellas County Board of County…
- NYPD says school officials stonewalled probe into ‘bullied’ slain student — after Mamdani crowed about helping familyThe NYPD said city education officials were stonewalling its probe into the fatal shooting of a potentially bullied Bronx schoolboy — after boss Mayor Zohran Mamdani publicly crowed about helping the teen’s kin. But the Department of…
- NYPD provides clearer timeline of victim's movements prior to Brooklyn waterfront path stabbingNovember 2, 2026 / 8:19 PM EST / CBS New York There are new details in the investigation into the stabbing of a 28-year-old woman running along the Shore Parkway greenway on Friday night. Police are offering a $10,000 reward for anyone…
- NYPD officers shoot man who opened fire at them in the Bronx, police sources sayNovember 2, 2026 / 4:54 PM EST / CBS New York New York City police officers shot a man who opened fire at them in the Bronx on Monday afternoon, police sources said. No officers were hurt. It happened just before 3:30 p.m. on Bainbridge…
- NYPD cops shoot career criminal, 49, who got into gunfight with officers near Bronx daycareNYPD cops shot a career criminal after he refused to drop his gun, pointed it at officers and then got into a gunfight near a Bronx daycare on Monday afternoon. Victor Soto, 49, was shot by officers after he menaced customers inside Sammy…
- NYPD begs public to come forward with any info on stabbing of woman in BrooklynCBS News - The 5:33 | Legacy of the LIRR Massacre - On The Dot with David Schechter: Wildfires & Climate Change NYPD begs public to come forward with any info on stabbing of woman in Brooklyn First Alert Weather: Sun and clouds, high of 69…
- Mamdani tries to save face with Darializa Avila Chevalier, DSA comrades after ditching plan to scrap NYPD unitMayor Zohran Mamdani is scrambling to save face with Darializa Avila Chevalier and other increasingly frustrated city socialists after he put a campaign promise to scrap an elite NYPD unit on the “backburner,” The Post has learned…
- Do Mamdani’s late-night basketball games at an NYPD gym run afoul of city ethics laws?Former New York City government attorneys are raising concerns about the mayor’s use of the NYPD facility. 10/28/2026 6:06 PM EDT NEW YORK — Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s habit of hosting friends for late-night basketball at the NYPD’s Police…
- NYPD searching for suspect who stabbed Brooklyn jogger in neck, leaving her critically injuredNovember 2, 2026 / 1:02 PM EST / CBS New York Police are still looking for the suspect they say stabbed a woman jogging Friday night along a popular Brooklyn bike path. Katie Suarez, 28, is in critical condition at the hospital after she…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions