States & cities odds

Every States & cities market on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com: the odds, the money behind them, the biggest moves and the news.

831 open markets · $4.1M traded today

Trending states & cities markets

Will NYC ban horse-drawn carriages in 2026?

98%chance▲ 1

Which jurisdictions will drop Flock before Feb 2027?

86%New Bedford, MA

New Bedford, MA86%▲ 1
Richmond, CA64%▲ 1
Boulder, CO59%▲ 1
Atlanta, GA39%▲ 1

1 more

Binghamton, NY38%▼ 1

Will California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?

55%chance

How many billionaires will New York City lose this year? (Before 2026)

121.2median

90123

Median 121.2

When will Pennsylvania raise its minimum wage? (Before 2029)

Mar 26, 2027even chance by

Before Mar 1, 202731%
Before Apr 1, 202755%▲ 2
Before Jul 1, 202770%▲ 2
Before Jan 1, 202883%▲ 1

1 more

Before Jan 1, 202990%▲ 1

Will Mamdani open a city-owned grocery store before 2028?

74%chance

Which states will join the National Popular Vote Compact? (Before Nov 7, 2028)

57%Wisconsin

Wisconsin57%▲ 1
Arizona56%▲ 8
Michigan48%▲ 1
Nevada36%▲ 1

1 more

Pennsylvania26%▲ 1

When will Texas enact a state income tax? (Before 2030)

22%Before 2030

Before 203022%
Before 202913%
Before 20288%

How many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026?

4.79median

39

Median 4.79

Will Alabama cut its state grocery tax again? (Before Jul 1, 2027)

79%chance

Will Georgia expand Medicaid? (Before Dec 31, 2028)

51%chance▲ 1

Will Arkansas's crypto mining ownership ban survive appeal? (Before Feb 1, 2027)

38%chance

Will Maryland award the Key Bridge main span contract by summer 2027?

56%chance

Tim Walz out as Governor of Minnesota? (Before 2027)

2%Before 2027

Before 20272%

Who will announce a California departure in 2026?

6%Chamath Palihapitiya

Chamath Palihapitiya6%
Palmer Luckey5%
Larry Page5%▼ 14
Mark Zuckerberg5%

3 more

Peter Thiel4%
Marc Andreessen4%
Jensen Huang4%

Will Mamdani raise corporate taxes? (Before 2030)

43%Before 2029

Before 202943%
Before 203040%
Before 202823%
Before 20275%

Will Colorado's AI rules take effect before February 2027?

81%chance

Which city will host the 2028 Democratic national convention?

48%Denver

Denver48%▲ 1
Boston26%▲ 1
Philadelphia24%▲ 1
Atlanta3%

1 more

Chicago2%

NYC population change (July 2025 – July 2027)?

0.05%median

-3.99%3.99%

Median 0.05%Middle half -0.63% – 0.64%

Will Zohran Mamdani become President of the United States before Jan 22, 2045?

14%chance

Will Wisconsin expand Medicaid? (Before Dec 31, 2028)

78%chance▲ 2

Will Maine enact a law restricting large data centers? (Before Jan 1, 2028)

82%chance

Which states will enact data center moratoriums before 2028?

71%New Mexico

New Mexico71%▲ 1
Maine66%▲ 1
New Hampshire59%▲ 1
Michigan50%▲ 1

43 more

Will any state enact a data center moratorium law? (Before Jan 1, 2028)

May 1, 2027even chance by

Before Jan 1, 202726%▲ 1
Before Jul 1, 202763%▲ 2
Before Jan 1, 202894%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

States & cities news

New York governor election live updates for the 2026 race between Kathy Hochul and Bruce BlakemanCBS News · 6 days ago
Spencer Pratt claims chilling death threats forced him into $1,200-a-night luxury hotelCalifornia Post · 6 days ago
Technical issues, flooding affects Election Day voting across Broward CountyCBS News · 6 days ago
What Election Day Commentators Are Saying: Trump Rants, Hasan Piker Wonders if MAGA ‘Cult’ Is Over and More (Updating)Variety · 6 days ago
Michigan voter: 'People are just ready for change’CNN · 6 days ago
Karen Bass takes Election Day swipe at Nithya Raman with embarrassing blooper reelCalifornia Post · 6 days ago
AI-generated 'slopaganda' in political ads puts internet platforms on alertCNBC · 6 days ago
After days of heavy rain and flooding, South Florida could see a break in storms on Election DayCBS News · 6 days ago

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions