CPI in October (Oct 2026)
0.2%median
-0.2%1.1%
Median 0.2%Middle half 0.14% – 0.26%
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Social Security COLA for 2028
The odds
2.54%median
1%5%
Median 2.54%Middle half 1.8% – 3.56%
How the odds have moved
Median: 2.57% on Oct 20, 2.54% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1.5% | 81% | 77¢ | 85¢ | $1.18 | 2.9K | |
| Above 2.0% | 71% | 66¢ | 76¢ | $1.32 | 386 | |
| Above 2.5% | 52% | 47¢ | 56¢ | $1.79 | 856 | |
| Above 3.0% | 34% | 30¢ | 38¢ | $2.63 | 2.2K | |
| Above 3.5% | 26% | 21¢ | 31¢ | $3.23 | 224 | |
| Above 4.0% | 17% | 12¢ | 22¢ | $4.55 | 1.1K | |
| Above 4.5% | 13% | 8¢ | 18¢ | $5.56 | 2.1K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Social Security COLA
Search ›- Why Your 2027 Social Security COLA Won’t Go as Far as You Think - And What to Do InsteadSocial Security benefits are getting a big raise, but don't start counting the money just yet. Many older Americans today are living on just Social Security. And if you're in that situation, you may be relieved to know that benefits are…
- Your Social Security COLA Notice Is Coming — 6 Things to Check Before Filing It AwayMillions of retirees will soon receive an important notice from the Social Security Administration explaining how their benefits will change in 2027. With the 2027 Social Security COLA set at 3.6%, many beneficiaries are expecting a…
- Social Security COLA, tax break could narrow spending gap for older consumersThe spending growth of older consumers has trailed other age groups for the past year despite sizable wealth gains at the top. But a 2027 cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security recipients and temporary tax break could modestly…
- 2027 Social Security COLA Is Official - Here's How Much 6 Types of Beneficiaries Will GetThe latest increase will look different across households. According to Social Security's October 14 announcement, nearly 72 million beneficiaries will receive the increase, while Supplemental Security Income (SSI) recipients will see…
- Social Security COLA 2027 increases payments, who qualifies and when higher checks beginCOLA 2027 will adjust benefits starting in January, although the final percentage remains pending. Cost of living adjustments protect the purchasing power of retirees, individuals with disabilities and various family survivors. The Social…
- Happy With Your 3.6% Social Security COLA? Here’s Why You Shouldn’t BeFor many seniors, there's no single income stream that's as valuable as Social Security. And that's what makes the program's annual cost-of-living adjustments, or COLAs, so important. Back in the day, Congress had to vote to give Social…
- Social Security COLA 2027 – Retirees Get a 3.6% Raise, but Will It Beat Inflation and Workers’ Wage Growth?Home / USA News / Social Security COLA 2027 – Retirees Get a 3.6% Raise, but Will It Beat Inflation and Workers’ Wage Growth? Inflation, healthcare expenses, housing costs, and household spending will all influence how much beneficiaries…
- Social Security COLA for 2027In early October of every year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its much-anticipated report on changes (usually increases) to the Consumer Price Index over the past 12 months. Why is this little esoteric government report —…
- Boosting Benefits and COLAs for Seniors Act: The Impact on Federal RetireesFinancial Planning Resources for Federal & Postal Employees November 3, 2026 My Federal Retirement Social Security and federal retirement annuities are adjusted under different laws, but all use the CPI-W as the starting point. The…
- Social Security’s 2027 COLA Is the Highest in Years. Here’s Why You Shouldn’t Celebrate It Just YetThat generous raise may not hold up well after all. In recent years, seniors on Social Security have seen some pretty disappointing cost-of-living adjustments (COLA) to their monthly benefits. Last year's Social Security increase was only…
- Could Social Security Recipients Get a $3,550 Stimulus Payment? Here’s What You Need To KnowSocial Security benefits have been losing buying power over time. There are plenty of retirees today who are living on just Social Security. And seniors who don't have any income outside of those monthly benefits often find themselves…
- Social Security’s COLA helps but Congress must do moreFor hundreds of thousands of Washingtonians, the annual Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) has a real impact on their monthly budgets. It helps pay for groceries, utilities, prescriptions and other necessities. But when…
Related markets
All inflation ›Core CPI in October (Oct 2026)
0.18%median
-0.1%1.1%
Median 0.18%Middle half 0.12% – 0.24%
CPI YoY in November (Nov 2026)
3.66%median
2.9%5.1%
Median 3.66%Middle half 3.54% – 3.78%
October Inflation US - Annual
3.7%median
3.15%4.35%
Median 3.7%Middle half 3.67% – 3.73%
Core CPI YoY in November (Nov 2026)
2.74%median
1.9%3.6%
Median 2.74%Middle half 2.6% – 2.85%
CPI YoY in December (Dec 2026)
3.57%median
2.9%5.1%
Median 3.57%Middle half 3.4% – 3.81%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions