US trade deficit for 2031

Kalshi Economy › Trade & tariffs Closes Feb 2, 2032 · $2 traded · $2 at stake · prices read 10 h ago

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The odds

$1,177median

$400$1,300

Median $1,177

How the odds have moved

Median: $1,110 on Oct 19, $1,177 now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Above $500 billion	97%	95¢	99¢	$1.01
Above $600 billion	96%	94¢	98¢	$1.02	2.00
Above $700 billion	95%	91¢	98¢	$1.02
Above $800 billion	90%	85¢	95¢	$1.05
Above $900 billion	82%	77¢	87¢	$1.15
Above $1.0 trillion	72%	67¢	77¢	$1.30
Above $1.1 trillion	60%	55¢	65¢	$1.54
Above $1.2 trillion	47%	42¢	52¢	$1.92

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news

No recent headlines name this market's subject.

Related markets

All trade & tariffs ›

Economy › Trade & tariffs

US trade deficit for 2030

$1,108median

$400$1,300

Median $1,108

Economy › Trade & tariffs

US trade deficit for 2032

50%Above $1.2 trillion

$400$1,300

Economy › Trade & tariffs

US trade deficit for 2029

$1,080median

$400$1,300

Median $1,080

Economy › Trade & tariffs

US trade deficit for 2028

$1,017median

$400$1,300

Median $1,017Middle half $873.33 – $1,171

Economy › Trade & tariffs

US trade deficit for 2027

$986.36median

$400$1,300

Median $986.36Middle half $864.71 – $1,115

Economy › Trade & tariffs

US trade deficit for 2026?

181.2median

35.1200

Median 181.2Middle half 171.8 – 190.6

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onU.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau

Trading closesFeb 2, 2032 8:29 AM ET

Traded$2 (2 contracts)

At stake$2

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2031 is strictly above $500 billion dollars, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions