US unemployment rate at year-end 2034
4.81%median
2.5%10.5%
Median 4.81%Middle half 4.13% – 6.6%
Install
US unemployment rate at year-end 2035
The odds
4.88%median
2.5%10.5%
Median 4.88%Middle half 4.13% – 6.8%
How the odds have moved
Median: 6.25% on Oct 19, 4.88% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3.0% | 98% | 95¢ | $1.03 | |||
| Above 3.5% | 96% | 93¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | ||
| Above 4.0% | 82% | 77¢ | 87¢ | $1.15 | ||
| Above 4.5% | 56% | 51¢ | 61¢ | $1.64 | ||
| Above 5.0% | 48% | 43¢ | 53¢ | $1.89 | ||
| Above 5.5% | 41% | 36¢ | 46¢ | $2.17 | ||
| Above 6.0% | 34% | 29¢ | 39¢ | $2.56 | ||
| Above 6.5% | 28% | 23¢ | 33¢ | $3.03 | ||
| Above 7.0% | 23% | 18¢ | 28¢ | $3.57 | ||
| Above 7.5% | 18% | 13¢ | 23¢ | $4.35 | ||
| Above 8.0% | 15% | 10¢ | 20¢ | $5.00 | ||
| Above 8.5% | 12% | 7¢ | 17¢ | $5.88 | ||
| Above 9.0% | 9% | 4¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | ||
| Above 9.5% | 7% | 2¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | ||
| Above 10.0% | 6% | 1¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: jobs report, unemployment, payrolls
Search ›- The surprising October jobs report will mean more questions for the FedCNBCâs Steve Liesman joins "Squawk Box" to discuss last week's surprising jobs report and what it might mean for the Fed. The surprising October jobs report will mean more questions for the Fed
- 3 unexpected reasons why the October jobs report was so strongA little-noticed category in Friday's blockbuster jobs report is challenging the consensus view about job losses caused by artificial intelligence. At least for now, the data suggests the U.S. is gaining jobs as a result of the AI boom…
- Trump picks E.J. Antoni as new Bureau of Labor Statistics head after firing old commissioner amid weak jobs reportUpdated on: August 12, 2025 / 3:52 AM EDT / CBS News Washington — President Trump announced E.J. Antoni as his nominee to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Monday, after he fired the former commissioner earlier this month, blaming her…
- Latest jobs report shows increase in jobs as unemployment fallsFox Business Latest jobs report shows increase in jobs as unemployment falls 'The Big Money Show' panel breaks down the October jobs report showing 165,000 jobs were added as the unemployment rate falls to 4.1%. 'The Big Money Show' panel…
- October jobs report exceeds expectationsFox News October jobs report exceeds expectations FOX Business' Edward Lawrence reports on October jobs report and the market reaction to Democrats' midterm wins. Wall Street reacts as the October jobs report reveals 165,000 jobs were…
- Experts react to the October jobs reportCNBC Experts react to the October jobs report
- Crossmark Global's Bob Doll on jobs report: The economy is in good shapeCNBC Crossmark Global's Bob Doll on jobs report: The economy is in good shape
- San Francisco Fed president on jobs report: This is good news for American workersCNBC San Francisco Fed president on jobs report: This is good news for American workers
- October jobs report beats expectations, Christina Skinner analyzes AI productivity and market trendsFox Business October jobs report beats expectations, Christina Skinner analyzes AI productivity and market trends Former Trump Treasury official and Wharton School professor Christina Skinner discusses the October jobs report, AI's impact…
- October jobs report suggests economy is healthy, says former Minneapolis Fed president Gary SternCNBC October jobs report suggests economy is healthy, says former Minneapolis Fed president Gary Stern
- Huntington Bank: Midterm Election Results & Jobs ReportEDITOR’S NOTE: On a regular basis, Huntington officials publish a “The Three Things We Learned This Week” blog post on its website. In this week's video on markets and the economy, Huntington Bank Director of Equity Research Randy Hare…
- October jobs report shows strong positive labor market trends, Josh Schafer saysOctober jobs report data indicates strong labor market gains as Josh Schafer analyzes rising wages and steady unemployment. He points to job openings reaching seven point five million as a key indicator of economic strength. These trends…
Related markets
All jobs ›US unemployment rate at year-end 2036
5%median
2.5%10.5%
Median 5%Middle half 4.16% – 6.9%
US unemployment rate at year-end 2033
4.69%median
2.5%10.5%
Median 4.69%Middle half 4.12% – 6.5%
US unemployment rate at year-end 2032
5.51%median
2.5%10.5%
Median 5.51%Middle half 4.11% – 6.5%
US unemployment rate at year-end 2031
4.48%median
2.5%10.5%
Median 4.48%Middle half 4.09% – 6.1%
US unemployment rate at year-end 2030
4.44%median
2.5%10.5%
Median 4.44%Middle half 4.09% – 5.83%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions