CPI in October (Oct 2026)
0.21%median
-0.2%1.1%
Median 0.21%Middle half 0.15% – 0.26%
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How high will inflation get in 2026?
The odds
10%Above 4.5%
4%12%
How the odds have moved
Above 4.5%: 14% on Oct 20, 10% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Polymarket.
Why it moved
- Nov 4, 11 PM ETAbove 4.5%: 19% → 13%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ Above 3% | >99% | ▲ 1 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $28K | |
| ✓ Above 3.5% | >99% | 100¢ | 100¢ | $177K | ||
| ✓ Above 4% | >99% | ▲ 2 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $292K | |
| Above 4.5% | 10% | ▼ 1 | 9¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | $271K |
| Above 5% | 6% | ▲ 1 | 5¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | $35K |
| Above 6% | 2% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 1¢ | $76.92 | $75.5K |
| Above 8% | 2% | 2¢ | 2¢ | $41.67 | $42.7K | |
| Above 10% | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $41.67 | $61.3K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: inflation, CPI, consumer prices
Search ›- China's factory-price inflation hit a 4-year high as consumer prices cooledProducer prices rose 5.7% in October from a year earlier, while consumer inflation slowed to 0.7% from 0.9% in September China News Service / Getty Images China's National Bureau of Statistics said on Monday that producer prices rose 5.7%…
- China's October producer inflation quickens further, consumer prices edge downPublished on 11/08/2026 at 08:37 pm EST - Modified on 11/08/2026 at 08:40 pm EST BEIJING, Nov 9 (Reuters) - China's producer prices rose further in October while consumer inflation cooled, reflecting persistent cost pressures from higher…
- U.S. consumer prices seen rising 3.8% year-on-year in October - TruflationInvesting.com - U.S. consumer prices are estimated to have risen by 3.8% in the twelve months to October and 0.3% month-on-month, amid ongoing upward pressure from elevated energy costs caused by the Iran war, according to Truflation…
- China's factory-gate inflation gains momentum in October, consumer price pressures stay mutedPublished on 11/08/2026 at 09:04 pm EST BEIJING, Nov 9 (Reuters) - China's producer inflation accelerated to its fastest pace in nearly 4-1/2 years while consumer inflation cooled in October, data showed on Monday, reflecting persistent…
- October Consumer Price Index to Be Released on November 10; Futures Market Remains MixedFirst, let's take a look at this week's major schedule on Wall Street. This week, New York stock markets are expected to focus on the release of the Consumer Price Index , which will gauge the Federal Reserve's monetary policy for…
- Colombia Consumer Price Index (YoY) climbed from previous 6.29% to 6.3% in OctoberComposed of a group of economic journalists and FX experts, the FXStreet content team produces and oversees all content published on FXStreet. It provides a purely journalistic approach to the Forex market. Find independent, trusted…
- China Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets expectations (0%) in OctoberThe AUD/USD pair trades with mild losses around 0.6860 during the early Asian session on Monday. Stronger-than-expected US employment data provide some support to the US Dollar against the Australian Dollar. Traders brace for China’s…
- Colombia Consumer Price Index (MoM) declined to 0.2% in October from previous 0.37%Composed of a group of economic journalists and FX experts, the FXStreet content team produces and oversees all content published on FXStreet. It provides a purely journalistic approach to the Forex market. Find independent, trusted…
- November 2026 Economic Releases and Crypto Events to Watch: US CPI, Fed Minutes, PCE Inflation and Token UnlocksNovember 2026 features major economic releases, corporate earnings and cryptocurrency events that could influence Bitcoin, Ethereum and broader financial markets. US inflation data, Federal Reserve communications and token unlocks will…
- Netherlands, The Consumer Price Index n.s.a (YoY) increased to 3.7% in October from previous 3.4%AUD/USD struggles to capitalize on the previous day’s recovery and stays defensive on the 0.6900 level following the narrowing of trade surplus in China. Increased December Fed rate hike bets allows the US Dollar to pause its decline and…
- China Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 0.7% below forecasts (0.8%) in OctoberThe AUD/USD pair trades with mild losses around 0.6860 during the early Asian session on Monday. Stronger-than-expected US employment data provide some support to the US Dollar against the Australian Dollar. Traders brace for China’s…
- Inflation is expected to remain stubborn in CPI's October readingThe October Consumer Price Index is expected to show that the Federal Reserve still has work to do in bringing down inflation, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics issues its newest inflation data on ... The October Consumer Price Index is…
Related markets
All inflation ›Core CPI in October (Oct 2026)
0.18%median
-0.1%1.1%
Median 0.18%Middle half 0.13% – 0.24%
October Inflation US - Annual
3.7%median
3.15%4.35%
Median 3.7%Middle half 3.67% – 3.73%
CPI YoY in November (Nov 2026)
3.66%median
2.9%5.1%
Median 3.66%Middle half 3.55% – 3.77%
Core CPI YoY in November (Nov 2026)
2.74%median
1.9%3.6%
Median 2.74%Middle half 2.6% – 2.85%
CPI YoY in December (Dec 2026)
3.61%median
2.9%5.1%
Median 3.61%Middle half 3.4% – 3.87%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions