Fed Decision in Mar 2027

Crypto.com Economy › The Fed Closes Mar 17, 2027 · prices read 7 min ago

The odds

58%Hike <=25bps

Hike <=25bps58%
0bps (Unchanged)34%
Hike >25bps3%
Cut <=25bps3%
Cut >25bps2%

How the odds have moved

Not enough history yet.

Each outcome's chance over time on Crypto.com. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Bid	Ask	Pays
Hike <=25bps	58%	56¢	67¢	$1.49
0bps (Unchanged)	34%	32¢	41¢	$2.44
Hike >25bps	3%		6¢	$16.67
Cut <=25bps	3%	1¢	5¢	$20.00
Cut >25bps	2%		5¢	$20.00

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on Kalshi

Fed decision in Mar 2027?Cut 50+ bpKalshi 1%Crypto.com 2%1 pts apart

Fed decision in Mar 2027?

57%Hike 25bps

Hike 25bps57%▲ 1
Fed maintains rate35%
Cut 25bps3%▲ 1
Hike >25bps3%▲ 2

1 more

Cut >25bps1%

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The news: Federal Reserve, Fed, FOMC

Search ›

Federal Reserve reduces rate-setting meetings in 2027CNBC · 20 h agowatch nowShareHalftime ReportFederal Reserve reduces rate-setting meetings in 2027 CNBC's Steve Liesman reports on a change to the Federal Reserve's rate-setting meeting schedule in 2027.01:2416 minutes ago Steve Liesman watch nowwatch…
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago PresidentYahoo Finance · 22 h agoYahoo Finance Video The Fed's Goolsbee discusses monetary policy for a new economy. Terms and Privacy Policy Privacy Dashboard More Info
Federal Reserve tentatively finalizes fewer rate-setting meetings in 2027Scotsman Guide · 17 h agoSkip to content Join PRO Federal Reserve tentatively finalizes fewer rate-setting meetings in 2027 October’s meeting to be devoted to ‘broad monetary policy strategy issues’ Luke Baynes November 12, 2026 PRO FREE READ Economy, Interest…
Federal Reserve Board announces pricing, effective January 1, 2027, for payment services the Federal Reserve Banks provide to banks and credit unions, and changes to streamline and adjust their check servicesfederalreserve.gov · 20 h agoHome News & Events Press Releases Press Release November 12, 2026 Federal Reserve Board announces pricing, effective January 1, 2027, for payment services the Federal Reserve Banks provide to banks and credit unions, and changes to…
Federal Reserve to Forgo Rate Decision at October 2027 MeetingMarketScreener · 20 h agoPublished on 11/12/2026 at 01:31 pm EST - Modified on 11/12/2026 at 01:32 pm EST The Federal Reserve doesn't plan to make a decision on interest rates when its rate-setting committee convenes in October of next year, according to a…
Federal Reserve’s Barr warns of agentic AI challenges for banksCrypto Briefing · 22 h agoU.S. Government / Wikimedia Commons (Public domain) The Fed governor says banks will struggle to make sure autonomous AI agents actually do what customers ask by John Chen Thu 12 Nov 2026 · 10:56 EST 3 min read In Regulation Share Follow…
Federal Reserve: Stronger case for higher US Dollar rates – RBC EconomicsFXStreet · 6 h agoTRENDING:Oil priceXAU/USDEUR/USDGBP/USDSilverNewsletterSponsored byNEWS|11/13/2026 07:56:40 GMTFederal Reserve: Stronger case for higher US Dollar rates – RBC Economics FXStreet Insights TeamFXStreetRBC Economics argues the case for higher…
Rising Inflation Poses Challenges for Federal Reserve and ConsumersSSBCrack News · 35 h agoBusiness Rising Inflation Poses Challenges for Federal Reserve and Consumers By News Desk Last updated: November 11, 2026 4 Min Read Share Recent reports indicate that inflation in the United States continues to rise, posing challenges for…
Federal Reserve cuts key rate but signals higher bar for future reductionsBostonGlobe.com · 7 h agoWASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve reduced its key interest rate by a quarter-point for the third time in a row Wednesday but signaled that it may leave rates unchanged in the coming months, a move that could attract ire from President…
Federal Reserve Board issues enforcement action with former employee of United Community Bankfederalreserve.gov · 22 h agoHome News & Events Press Releases Press Release November 12, 2026 Federal Reserve Board issues enforcement action with former employee of United Community Bank For release at 11:00 a.m. EST Share The Federal Reserve Board on Thursday…
Federal Reserve announces revised tentative schedule of Federal Open Market Committee meetings in 2027federalreserve.gov · 20 h agoHome News & Events Press Releases Press Release November 12, 2026 Federal Reserve announces revised tentative schedule of Federal Open Market Committee meetings in 2027 For release at 12:45 p.m. EST Share The Federal Reserve on Thursday…
Federal ReservePost Register · 2 days agoAP Federal Reserve Julia Demaree Nikhinson - AP Nov 10, 2026 22 hrs ago 0 Federal Reserve Board Chairman Kevin Warsh speaks during a news conference at the Federal Reserve, Wednesday, Oct. 28, 2026, in Washington. Julia Demaree Nikhinson…

Related markets

All the fed ›

Economy › The Fed

Fed Decision in Apr 2027

58%0bps (Unchanged)

0bps (Unchanged)58%
Hike <=25bps25%
Cut <=25bps8%

Economy › The Fed

Fed Decision in Jan 2027

54%Hike <=25bps

Hike <=25bps54%
0bps (Unchanged)40%
Cut <=25bps3%

2 more

Hike >25bps2%
Cut >25bps2%

Economy › The Fed

Fed Decision in December?

91%25 bps increase

25 bps increase91%▲ 3
50+ bps increase6%
No change3%▼ 1

2 more

25 bps decrease1%
50+ bps decrease<1%

Economy › The Fed

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

97%chance▲ 1

Economy › The Fed

Fed funds rate after Dec 2026 meeting?

4.13%median

2.5%5.5%

Median 4.13%Middle half 4.06% – 4.2%

Economy › The Fed

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

98%0 (0 bps)

0 (0 bps)98%
1 (25 bps)1%
2 (50 bps)1%

10 more

3 (75 bps)<1%
4 (100 bps)<1%
12+ (300+ bps)<1%
5 (125 bps)<1%
6 (150 bps)<1%
7 (175 bps)<1%
8 (200 bps)<1%
9 (225 bps)<1%
10 (250 bps)<1%
11 (275 bps)<1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueCrypto.com

Settles oncrypto.com

Trading closesMar 17, 2027 2:00 PM ET

Traded$0 (0 contracts)

Followed here sinceNov 12, 2026

The rules

Fed Decision in Mar 2027

The full rules are on the market's page at Crypto.com.

Prices it is about

5Y Yield^FVX · moves with it4.945+2.44%
S&P 500^GSPC · moves with it7,592.40−0.35%
3M T-Bill^IRX · moves with it4.115−0.31%
^TNX^TNX · moves with it
IEFIEF · moves with it
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury BondSHY · moves with it81.14−0.21%
SPYSPY · moves with it757.12−0.35%
TLTTLT · moves with it79.72−1.48%

From 4Progressives Finance. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions