The Fed odds

Every The Fed market on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com: the odds, the money behind them, the biggest moves and the news.

613 open markets · $1.7M traded today

The Fed's next meetings

Target range now 3.75–4.00%Cut Hold Hike

Dec 919%80%Hike 80%4.07%Kalshi Polymarket
Jan 2777%19%Hold 77%4.11%Kalshi Polymarket
Mar 1753%39%Hold 53%4.19%Kalshi Polymarket
Apr 2817%65%19%Hold 65%4.19%Kalshi Polymarket
Jun 966%29%Hold 66%4.24%Kalshi
Jul 2890%Hold 90%4.24%Kalshi

The chance of a cut, a hold or a hike at each meeting, Kalshi and Polymarket averaged where both list it, and the target-range midpoint those odds imply.

Trending the fed markets

Fed Decision in December?

80%25 bps increase

25 bps increase80%▲ 3
No change19%▼ 4
25 bps decrease1%
50+ bps increase1%

1 more

50+ bps decrease<1%

^TNX+0.10%^IRX+0.87%

Fed Decision in January?

78%No change

No change78%▲ 1
25 bps increase17%▼ 1
25 bps decrease3%
50+ bps decrease1%

1 more

50+ bps increase1%

TLT+0.05%SPY+2.37%

Fed decision in Jul 2027?

92%Fed maintains rate

Fed maintains rate92%
Cut 25bps4%
Hike 25bps3%
Cut >25bps2%▲ 2

1 more

Hike >25bps1%▲ 1

^GSPC+2.35%^FVX+0.24%

Fed decision in Mar 2027?

54%Fed maintains rate

Fed maintains rate54%▼ 2
Hike 25bps39%▲ 2
Cut 25bps5%▲ 1
Cut >25bps1%

1 more

Hike >25bps1%▼ 1

TLT+0.05%SPY+2.37%

Fed decision in Apr 2027?

62%Fed maintains rate

Fed maintains rate62%▼ 1
Hike 25bps15%▲ 2
Cut 25bps13%
Cut >25bps5%

1 more

Hike >25bps1%

SHY-0.05%IEF-0.07%

Fed decision in Oct 2027?

93%Fed maintains rate

Fed maintains rate93%▲ 1
Cut 25bps5%
Hike 25bps3%
Cut >25bps<1%

1 more

Hike >25bps<1%

TLT+0.05%SPY+2.37%

Fed decision in Dec 2027?

83%Fed maintains rate

Fed maintains rate83%
Cut 25bps8%
Hike 25bps5%
Cut >25bps3%

1 more

Hike >25bps2%

^FVX+0.24%TLT+0.05%

Fed decision in Sep 2027?

80%Fed maintains rate

Fed maintains rate80%
Hike 25bps8%
Cut 25bps7%
Cut >25bps5%

1 more

Hike >25bps3%

^FVX+0.24%^GSPC+2.35%

Fed decision in Jun 2027?

68%Fed maintains rate

Fed maintains rate68%
Hike 25bps29%
Cut 25bps4%
Cut >25bps1%

1 more

Hike >25bps<1%

^IRX+0.87%^GSPC+2.35%

Fed decision in Jan 2028?

61%Fed maintains rate

Fed maintains rate61%
Hike 25bps19%
Cut 25bps12%
Hike >25bps5%

1 more

Cut >25bps3%

TLT+0.05%SPY+2.37%

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

98%0 (0 bps)

0 (0 bps)98%
2 (50 bps)1%
1 (25 bps)1%
3 (75 bps)<1%

9 more

4 (100 bps)<1%
12+ (300+ bps)<1%
5 (125 bps)<1%
6 (150 bps)<1%
7 (175 bps)<1%
8 (200 bps)<1%
9 (225 bps)<1%
10 (250 bps)<1%
11 (275 bps)<1%

^FVX+0.24%^GSPC+2.35%

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

83%chance▲ 7

SHY-0.05%IEF-0.07%

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

4.22%median

0.88%4.63%

Median 4.22%Middle half 4.14% – 4.3%

Fed rate cut by...?

48%July 2027 Meeting

July 2027 Meeting48%
April 2027 Meeting48%
June 2027 Meeting32%▲ 1
March 2027 Meeting12%▼ 1

3 more

January 2027 Meeting7%
December 2026 Meeting1%
October 2026 Meeting<1%

SPY+2.37%SHY-0.05%

Number of rate cuts in 2026?

0.03median

-0.5020.5

Median 0.03Middle half -0.24 – 0.29

TLT+0.05%SPY+2.37%

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

79%2 (50 bps)

2 (50 bps)79%▲ 2
1 (25 bps)20%▼ 3
3 (75 bps)1%
4 (100 bps)<1%

1 more

5+ (125+ bps)<1%

TLT+0.05%SPY+2.37%

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

81%Hike–Pause–Hike

Hike–Pause–Hike81%▲ 6
Hike–Pause–Pause17%▼ 3
Other1%
Hike–Hike–Hike<1%▼ 3

1 more

Hike–Hike–Pause<1%▼ 2

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

4.35%high with an even chance

Traders see an even chance of trading as high as 4.35%.

Reaches 4.25%81%
Reaches 4.5%2%
Reaches 4.75%2%

Falls to 3.25%2%
Falls to 3%2%
Falls to 2.75%2%

Already reached: ↓ 3.5%

Fed funds rate after Dec 2026 meeting?

4.1%median

2.5%5.5%

Median 4.1%Middle half 4.02% – 4.18%

^FVX+0.24%^GSPC+2.35%

Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)

76%Pause-Hike-Pause

Pause-Hike-Pause76%▲ 7
Pause-Pause-Pause10%▲ 1
Pause-Pause-Hike8%▼ 6
Pause-Hike-Hike6%▼ 1

5 more

Other1%▼ 1
Hike-Pause-Pause<1%
Hike-Pause-Hike<1%▼ 1
Hike-Hike-Hike<1%▼ 1
Hike-Hike-Pause<1%▼ 1

Next Fed rate hike?

97%Before 2029

Before 202997%
Before July 202895%
Before 202891%▲ 2
Before July 202788%▲ 2

1 more

Before 202781%▲ 1

TLT+0.05%SPY+2.37%

Fed funds rate after Apr 2027 meeting?

4.46%median

-0.25%6.5%

Median 4.46%Middle half 4.35% – 5.73%

TLT+0.05%SPY+2.37%

Number of emergency rate cuts in 2026?

0.02median

-0.504.50

Median 0.02Middle half -0.24 – 0.28

TLT+0.05%SPY+2.37%

Fed funds rate at end of 2027

4.16%median

0.75%6.25%

Median 4.16%Middle half 3.99% – 4.75%

IEF-0.07%^TNX+0.10%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

The Fed news

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Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions