Fed Decision (Dec 9, 2026)
72%Hike 25 bp
- Hike 25 bp72%
- Hold18%
- Hike 50+ bp6%
2 more
- Cut 25 bp4%
- Cut 50+ bp<1%
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Fed Decision (Oct 28, 2026)
Settled HoldA day before, traders gave it 90%.
The last odds before it closed
86%Hold
- ✓ Hold86%
- Hike 25 bp5%
- Cut 25 bp4%
- Hike 50+ bp4%
- Cut 50+ bp1%
How the odds have moved
Hold: 83% on Oct 20, 86% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on ForecastEx. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Last odds | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ Hold | 86% | 252.2K | ||||
| ✗ Hike 25 bp | 5% | 51.0K | ||||
| ✗ Cut 25 bp | 4% | 6.5K | ||||
| ✗ Hike 50+ bp | 4% | 1.6K | ||||
| ✗ Cut 50+ bp | 1% | 63.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Federal Reserve, Fed, FOMC
Search ›- President Donald Trump Just Proclaimed That "Inflation Is Way Down," but Federal Reserve Economists Have a Different TakeNot only are consumer prices rising, but two of President Trump’s policies are partly to blame. From a purely statistical standpoint, Wall Street has relished having Donald Trump in the White House. The average annual return of the…
- FinCEN, Fed withdraw $250 crypto Travel Rule proposal after five-year privacy fightFinCEN and the Federal Reserve withdrew the 2020 crypto Travel Rule proposal, keeping the $3,000 cross-border reporting threshold. FinCEN and the Federal Reserve formally withdrew their 2020 proposal to lower the cross-border crypto…
- Democrats' midterm sweep gives gold a boost, but the Federal Reserve still holds the cards(Kitco News) - The Democratic Party's sweeping victory in the U.S. midterm elections has created some positive momentum in the gold market, but recent price action shows that political developments remain a secondary concern as the Federal…
- Powell and Phillips star as Bradford put seven past MarineNick Powell and Adam Phillips both score a brace as League One Bradford City beat National League North side Marine 7-0 in the first round of the FA Cup. WATCH MORE: FA Cup first round highlights Powell and Phillips star as Bradford put…
- If the Fed Raises Interest Rates in December, I'm Making This 1 Investing MoveThe survey says a rate hike is likely next month. The Federal Open Market Committee decided not to raise interest rates when it last met on Oct. 28, but a rate hike in December is expected. In the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC)…
- The Week Ahead: CPI, CoreWeave Earnings and Fed Speeches in FocusWall Street enters the week of November 9 to 13, 2026, after a rough stretch for technology stocks. Shares fell on worries about AI spending, tighter financial conditions and the US midterm elections. Technology shares took the heaviest…
- 165,000 US jobs added as Fed easing narrative faces headwindsThe United States economy added 165,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in October, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics release on November 6. The data complicates expectations for rapid monetary…
- Fed policymakers consider rate hike after strong jobs reportWorld Fed policymakers consider rate hike after strong jobs report Published : Nov. 8, 2026 - 10:24:06 A stronger-than-expected US jobs report bolstered the case for further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, which had lost some momentum…
- Markets Are Pricing in a Fed Rate Hike in December. Here's What Investors Should Do, According to History.Another Fed rate hike looks likely. If history is any guide, investors will want to take four steps. Kevin Warsh has already presided over one Federal Reserve rate hike during his first few months as Fed chair. And now another rate…
- New Federal Reserve Research Finds Cutting Merchant Swipe Fees Even Hurts Consumers Who Don’t Earn Rewardsby Gary Leff on November 6, 2026 You can earn no miles, no points and no cash back from your credit card and still lose if the government cuts credit card merchant swipe fees. Research from two Philadelphia Federal Reserve economists…
- US Adds 165,000 Jobs in October: Why Bitcoin Traders Are Watching the FedTL;DR: The US economy added 165,000 payroll jobs in October while unemployment stood at 4.1%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ November 6 release. The data complicate hopes of quick monetary easing, but the report by itself…
- Goldman Cuts Gold Forecasts; Stephen Innes Says Fed Policy Cools Private DemandThe bank lowered its end-2026 target to $4,150 an ounce from $4,650 and its end-2027 target to $4,800 from $5,400. Goldman Sachs lowered its gold price targets for the end of 2026 and 2027, while retaining a positive longer-term view…
Related markets
All the fed ›Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
83%chance▲ 7
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
98%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)98%
- 2 (50 bps)1%
- 1 (25 bps)1%
10 more
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
Fed rate cut by...?
48%July 2027 Meeting
- July 2027 Meeting48%
- April 2027 Meeting48%
- June 2027 Meeting32%▲ 1
4 more
- March 2027 Meeting12%▼ 1
- January 2027 Meeting7%
- December 2026 Meeting1%
- October 2026 Meeting<1%
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
79%2 (50 bps)
- 2 (50 bps)79%▲ 2
- 1 (25 bps)20%▼ 3
- 3 (75 bps)1%
2 more
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 5+ (125+ bps)<1%
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
81%Hike–Pause–Hike
- Hike–Pause–Hike81%▲ 6
- Hike–Pause–Pause17%▼ 3
- Other1%
2 more
- Hike–Hike–Hike<1%▼ 3
- Hike–Hike–Pause<1%▼ 2
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions