US Unemployment Rate (Dec 2026)
4.09%median
0.7%7.2%
Median 4.09%Middle half 3.78% – 4.44%
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US Unemployment Rate (Nov 2026)
The odds
17%Above 3%
2.8%5%
How the odds have moved
Above 3%: 17% on Oct 20, 17% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on ForecastEx.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3% | 17% | $6.04 | ||||
| Above 3.2% | 17% | $6.04 | ||||
| Above 3.4% | 17% | $6.04 | ||||
| Above 3.6% | 17% | $6.04 | ||||
| Above 3.8% | 17% | $6.04 | ||||
| Above 4% | 17% | $6.04 | 1.1K | |||
| Above 4.2% | 17% | $6.04 | 1.1K | |||
| Above 4.4% | 6% | $16.67 | 49.00 | |||
| Above 4.6% | 4% | $25.00 | 4.00 | |||
| Above 4.8% | <1% |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: jobs report, unemployment, payrolls
Search ›- Latest jobs report shows increase in jobs as unemployment fallsFox Business Latest jobs report shows increase in jobs as unemployment falls 'The Big Money Show' panel breaks down the October jobs report showing 165,000 jobs were added as the unemployment rate falls to 4.1%. 'The Big Money Show' panel…
- U.S. economy added 165,000 jobs in October, way more than expected; unemployment rate at 4.1%The U.S. economy added jobs at a much stronger than expected pace in October, while the unemployment rate moved lower as the labor market showed surprising strength. Nonfarm payrolls increased by a seasonally adjusted 165,000 for the…
- Trump picks E.J. Antoni as new Bureau of Labor Statistics head after firing old commissioner amid weak jobs reportUpdated on: August 12, 2025 / 3:52 AM EDT / CBS News Washington — President Trump announced E.J. Antoni as his nominee to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Monday, after he fired the former commissioner earlier this month, blaming her…
- October jobs report exceeds expectationsFox News October jobs report exceeds expectations FOX Business' Edward Lawrence reports on October jobs report and the market reaction to Democrats' midterm wins. Wall Street reacts as the October jobs report reveals 165,000 jobs were…
- Nonfarm payrolls surge in October, sending the unemployment rate lowerOctober U.S. nonfarm payrolls: +165K vs. +62K consensus and +60K prior (revised from +29K), according to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday. U.S. nonfarm payrolls jumped by 165K in October, more than double the +62K…
- Experts react to the October jobs reportCNBC Experts react to the October jobs report
- Crossmark Global's Bob Doll on jobs report: The economy is in good shapeCNBC Crossmark Global's Bob Doll on jobs report: The economy is in good shape
- San Francisco Fed president on jobs report: This is good news for American workersCNBC San Francisco Fed president on jobs report: This is good news for American workers
- The US economy added 165,000 jobs in October and the unemployment rate fellJob growth surpassed expectations in October, new data showed Friday, with the US economy adding 165,000 jobs. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2%, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Job growth in the previous two…
- October jobs report beats expectations, Christina Skinner analyzes AI productivity and market trendsFox Business October jobs report beats expectations, Christina Skinner analyzes AI productivity and market trends Former Trump Treasury official and Wharton School professor Christina Skinner discusses the October jobs report, AI's impact…
- Canada’s Unemployment Rate Reaches 6.7% as More People Seek WorkEmployment slipped by 4,700, a change reported as 0.0% at one decimal place; private-sector losses were partly offset by public-sector gains. Canada’s unemployment rate rose to 6.7% in October as the number of people seeking work increased…
- October jobs report suggests economy is healthy, says former Minneapolis Fed president Gary SternCNBC October jobs report suggests economy is healthy, says former Minneapolis Fed president Gary Stern
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions