NC-03 House winner?
85%Raymond Smith Jr.
- Raymond Smith Jr.85%▲ 1
- Greg Murphy15%
Install
Alaska House winner? (2026)
The odds
79%Nick Begich III
- Nick Begich III79%▼ 13
- Bill Hill18%▲ 8
- Eric Hafner<1%
How the odds have moved
Nick Begich III: 87% on Oct 20, 79% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Nov 9, 8 PM ETNick Begich III: 92% → 79%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
- Nov 4, 11 PM ETNick Begich III: 73% → 83%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Begich III | 79% | ▼ 13 | 78¢ | 79¢ | $1.27 | 383.7K |
| Bill Hill | 18% | ▲ 8 | 17¢ | 18¢ | $5.56 | 151.1K |
| Eric Hafner | <1% | 0¢ | 90.6K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Alaska House, Nick Begich III, Bill Hill
Search ›- Republican incumbent Rep. Nick Begich III has big lead for state’s lone U.S. House seatPublished 4:30 am Wednesday, November 4, 2026 By James Brooks, Corinne Smith and Yereth Rosen Alaska Beacon Republican incumbent Rep. Nick Begich III took a significant lead in early vote-counting for Alaska’s lone U.S. House seat, and…
- Alaska Republican incumbent Rep. Nick Begich III has big lead for state’s lone US House seatSpeaking to supporters Tuesday night, Begich thanked them for their votes and said their decision to re-elect him was about the future, not just that night. “This is about people today, but it’s about people tomorrow in Alaska. About…
- Bill Hill takes early lead in Alaska’s U.S. House raceAlaska independent Bill Hill holds a slight lead over Republican incumbent Nick Begich III in Alaska’s U.S. House race as early results come in. With about 11% of precincts reporting so far Tuesday night, Hill, a fisherman and retired…
- Independent Bill Hill narrowly leads GOP Rep. Begich in initial U.S. House race resultsIndependent Bill Hill is narrowly leading in the race for Alaska’s lone U.S. House seat against Republican incumbent Rep. Nick Begich, following preliminary vote tallies Tuesday night. The final result in the race likely won’t be known…
- Interior Alaska House candidates react to early election resultsAlaska's News Source Interior Alaska House candidates react to early election results Kincaid Park has Alaska’s first “SaveStation” designed to reverse cardiac arrest ‘Let’s make something beautiful’: How a flood of political mail sparks a…
- Alaska's Nick Begich III: Hardest Working Member of CongressThere has been an uncharacteristically large amount of attention paid to Alaska this election cycle, and with the allegations being hurled at the Senate campaign of Mary Peltola, that's perfectly justified. Her campaign has, after all…
- Sullivan, Begich, JKT take early leads in midterm ballotingBy noon on Tuesday, more than 500 voters had already cast their ballots for the general election at Bayside Fire Department. An election worker said the polling site normally sees about 400 voters for a municipal election. With 279 of 401…
- Voting is underway in Petersburg for Alaska’s general electionPosted by Taylor Heckart | Nov 3, 2026 Today is Alaska’s general election. At stake are the races for U.S. House, U.S. Senate, state house, state senate, and governor. You can vote in Petersburg until 8 p.m. today at the Parks and Rec…
- Republicans on track to lose seats in Alaska House amid strong showings for Democrats, independentsAs vote counts streamed in on election night Tuesday, early results indicated that Republicans are on track to lose ground in the Alaska Legislature. Initial results show Republicans falling behind Democrats and independents in several…
- Unalaska backs JKT, Begich; Peltola narrowly leads in preliminary resultsMore than 500 Unalaskans voted in person on Nov. 3’s Election Day, and preliminary results show a majority of them chose Democrat Mary Peltola in the closely watched U.S. Senate race. She received 50.6% of the 514 local votes cast in the…
- Sarah Palin advances -- over Santa Claus -- in crowded primary for Alaska House seatThe ex-governor and vice presidential pick heads to August's general election. Sarah Palin got one step closer this weekend to a return to national politics when she successfully advanced through the crowded statewide primary for the…
- UPDATE: Initial Peltola lead vanishes, Begich takes solid lead over Hill in early Alaska returnsMary Peltola is in a tight battle to add to major gains by Democrats in both chambers of Congress as she is essentially tied with Republican U.S. Sen. Dan S. Sullivan after a second round of early returns was published by the Alaska…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions