Will Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations during Trump's term? (Before Jan 20, 2029)
20%chance▲ 3
Install
Which countries will normalize relations with Israel before 2027?
The odds
7%Belize
- Belize7%
- Comoros6%
- Djibouti5%
- Mauritania5%
- Maldives4%
- Indonesia3%
- Oman3%
- Syria2%
- Saudi Arabia2%
- Lebanon1%
- Iran1%
How the odds have moved
Belize: 7% on Oct 20, 7% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ Colombia | 96% | $1.04 | 31.7K | |||
| Belize | 7% | 3¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | 2.2K | |
| Comoros | 6% | 1¢ | 10¢ | $10.10 | 202 | |
| Djibouti | 5% | 3¢ | 8¢ | $12.99 | 3.4K | |
| Mauritania | 5% | 1¢ | 8¢ | $12.35 | 664 | |
| Maldives | 4% | 1¢ | 7¢ | $13.51 | 263 | |
| Indonesia | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $22.22 | 17.9K | |
| Oman | 3% | 1¢ | 4¢ | $25.64 | 19.0K | |
| Syria | 2% | 1¢ | 4¢ | $26.32 | 44.0K | |
| Saudi Arabia | 2% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $38.46 | 228.5K | |
| Lebanon | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $55.56 | 71.2K | |
| Iran | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 1.0K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Israel, Gaza, Netanyahu
Search ›- Israeli officials say elections will stand after Netanyahu claimed Arabs stole voteNetanyahu has cast doubt on the validity of the election in which his coalition lost its majority. Police stand watch as supporters of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu counter-protest against a rally calling for the formation of a…
- Israeli strikes in Gaza kill eight including child, hospitals sayMourners attend the funeral of five Palestinians, who were killed in an Israeli strike. Israeli strikes in Gaza have killed at least eight people, including a child, according to hospitals, despite a year-old ceasefire. In Gaza City to the…
- Leader of Israel’s largest Arab political alliance: There’s a chance to oust Netanyahu | CNNCNN's Christiane Amanpour spoke with Yousef Jabareen, the leader of Israel’s largest Arab political alliance. Speaking to reporters the day before midterm elections, Vice President JD Vance said that the US has “certainly made some…
- Israel Palestinians GazaWV News Displaced Palestinian children play at a tent camp in the Bureij refugee camp, central Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026. There was a problem reporting this. Keep it Clean. Please avoid obscene, vulgar, lewd, racist or…
- BBC Audio | Weekend | Thousands rally in Israel calling for Jewish-Arab coalition to oust NetanyahuIsraeli activists rallied in Tel Aviv last night, calling on Gadi Eisenkot, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s main political rival, to work with Arab parties to form a government. Results from the ... Thousands rally in Israel calling…
- APTOPIX Israel Palestinians GazaThe Batesville Daily Guard Displaced Palestinian children play at a tent camp in the Bureij refugee camp, central Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026. There was a problem reporting this. Keep it Clean. Please avoid obscene, vulgar, lewd…
- Thousands rally in Israel calling for Jewish-Arab coalition to oust NetanyahuIsraeli activists rallied in Tel Aviv last night, calling on Gadi Eisenkot, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s main political rival, to work with Arab parties to form a government. Results from the ... Use BBC.com or the new BBC App to…
- Israeli Navy launches drill near Gaza borderThe Israel Defense Forces on Monday night announced an Israeli Navy exercise in the Zikim Beach area, located near the Gaza border. The exercise will begin on Tuesday morning and is set to conclude at midday on Wednesday. Heavy movement of…
- Israeli Regime Kills Five Palestinians in GazaAt least two Palestinians were killed in separate Israeli strikes on southern Khan Younis, while another was killed in a drone attack on the central al-Musaddar area, medical sources said. In Gaza City, an Israeli strike targeting a…
- Israeli attacks kill five in Gaza StripSudan power grid nears collapse amid drone strikes blamed on RSF Sudan files UN Security Council complaint over 'Ethiopia drones' Thai protest leader calls for 14-day limit on visas for Israelis Back to war? What another US-Iran conflict…
- Israeli strikes kill four people in GazaUPDATE 3-Israeli strikes kill four people in Gaza, medics say UNRWA staffers in Gaza protest amid cuts, dismissals Iran says in 'intensive' negotiations with US to avert war After the airstrikes: What's next for Syria-Jordan relations?…
- Israeli attacks kill five Palestinians across Gaza StripGAZA CITY, Palestine (MNTV) — Israeli airstrikes and gunfire killed five Palestinians and wounded several others across the Gaza Strip, including people sheltering in displacement tents and civilians targeted near temporary camps…
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Traffic through the Panama Canal? (11/9 - 11/15)
193.4median
160230
Median 193.4Middle half 188.7 – 199.4
Traffic through the Panama Canal? (11/2 - 11/8)
191.7median
160230
Median 191.7Middle half 187.3 – 195.6
Traffic through the Suez Canal? (11/2 - 11/8)
299.8median
250340
Median 299.8Middle half 288.1 – 309.8
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (11/2 - 11/8)
193.3median
140230
Median 193.3Middle half 185.8 – 202.8
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions