Traffic through the Panama Canal? (11/9 - 11/15)
193.4median
160230
Median 193.4Middle half 188.7 – 199.4
Install
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
The odds
Nov 16, 2027even chance by
- Before Dec 1, 20264%▲ 1
- Before Jan 1, 20278%▲ 2
- Before Feb 1, 202713%▲ 2
- Before Mar 1, 202714%▼ 3
- Before Apr 1, 202723%▼ 2
- Before May 1, 202725%▼ 2
- Before Jun 1, 202735%▲ 2
- Before Jul 1, 202739%
- Before Aug 1, 202740%▼ 1
- Before Sep 1, 202742%▼ 1
- Before Oct 1, 202746%
- Before Nov 1, 202749%
4 more
- Before Dec 1, 202752%▲ 3
- Before Jan 1, 202856%▲ 2
- Before Jul 1, 202866%▲ 5
- Before Jan 1, 202970%
How the odds have moved
Before Nov 1, 2027: 41% on Oct 20, 49% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Aug 15, 2026 | 1% | $100.00 | 1.1M | |||
| Before Sep 1, 2026 | 1% | $100.00 | 4.1M | |||
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 1% | $100.00 | 3.3M | |||
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 1% | ▲ 1 | $100.00 | 2.9M | ||
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 4% | ▲ 1 | 3¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 2.2M |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 8% | ▲ 2 | 8¢ | 9¢ | $11.63 | 3.9M |
| Before Feb 1, 2027 | 13% | ▲ 2 | 11¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 28.4K |
| Before Mar 1, 2027 | 14% | ▼ 3 | 12¢ | 17¢ | $5.88 | 4.3K |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 23% | ▼ 2 | 19¢ | 26¢ | $3.85 | 879.5K |
| Before May 1, 2027 | 25% | ▼ 2 | 23¢ | 27¢ | $3.70 | 7.5K |
| Before Jun 1, 2027 | 35% | ▲ 2 | 33¢ | 37¢ | $2.70 | 30.7K |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 39% | 38¢ | 39¢ | $2.56 | 1.7M | |
| Before Aug 1, 2027 | 40% | ▼ 1 | 39¢ | 40¢ | $2.50 | 2.8K |
| Before Sep 1, 2027 | 42% | ▼ 1 | 40¢ | 43¢ | $2.33 | 1.8K |
| Before Oct 1, 2027 | 46% | 44¢ | 47¢ | $2.13 | 2.7K | |
| Before Nov 1, 2027 | 49% | 48¢ | 49¢ | $2.04 | 81.5K | |
| Before Dec 1, 2027 | 52% | ▲ 3 | 50¢ | 53¢ | $1.89 | 24.2K |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 56% | ▲ 2 | 55¢ | 56¢ | $1.79 | 92.3K |
| Before Jul 1, 2028 | 66% | ▲ 5 | 64¢ | 68¢ | $1.47 | 55.9K |
| Before Jan 1, 2029 | 70% | 69¢ | 70¢ | $1.43 | 65.6K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Iran, Strait of Hormuz, Transit
Search ›- Strait of Hormuz could reopen as part of Qatari plan for Iran nuclear inspectionsTrump still considering new assault on Iran nuclear sites – though threats less credible after Vance remarks Qatar, the lead mediator in the US-Iran conflict, is seeking to persuade Tehran to allow UN nuclear weapons inspectors to visit…
- South Korea says it will expand naval operations closer to strait of HormuzSeoul to seek parliamentary approval to extend anti-piracy Cheonghae unit’s area to about 650km from the vital strait after criticism from Donald Trump on Iran war support South Korea plans to expand the operations of its anti-piracy unit…
- Strait of Hormuz risks still elevated despite U.S. midterm results: Former Australian Trade MinisterCNBC Strait of Hormuz risks still elevated despite U.S. midterm results: Former Australian Trade Minister
- Trump Says Strait of Hormuz Is Reopening as US Strikes IranUS President Donald Trump says Washington remains in talks with Tehran and that the Strait of Hormuz is reopening, even as he confirms fresh limited US strikes against Iranian air-defence systems. Speaking to reporters on Friday, Trump…
- Iran Says Two Tankers Hit Mines In Strait Of HormuzThe Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Navy announced that two oil tankers attempting to pass through unauthorized routes in the Strait of Hormuz struck mines and were stopped in the strategic waterway, according to the IRGC-linked…
- At Least 25 seafarers killed in Strait of Hormuz amid US-Iran conflictTrend News Agency At Least 25 seafarers killed in Strait of Hormuz amid US-Iran conflict BAKU, Azerbaijan, November 7. At least 25 seafarers have been killed in the Strait of Hormuz as a result of the conflict between the United States and…
- Four tankers destroyed by naval mines in Strait of Hormuz, Iran's IRGC saysIran's president Masoud Pezeshkian said "no-one will benefit from this war" if fighting with the US and Israel restarts Four oil tankers were destroyed after hitting naval sea mines, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said on…
- Iran allows ship carrying fertilizer for SL to pass Strait of HormuzBatting frailties give Sri Lanka food for thought Three crucial knockout matches today World record 53 red cards shown in Brazilian youth game Vadodara and Mumbai to host WPL 2027 Mendis and Udara steady ship with warm-up fifties A vessel…
- Iran's seven conditions essential to reopening Strait of Hormuz: army spokesmanTEHRAN– Iranian Army Spokesman Brigadier General Mohammad Akraminia said the United States must accept Iran’s seven conditions for the Strait of Hormuz to reopen, stressing that neither renewed aggression nor further military adventurism…
- Tanker reports explosion near Oman’s Khasab while transiting Strait of Hormuz, UKMTO saysA tanker experienced an explosion near Oman’s Khasab in the Strait of Hormuz but remains operational. All crew members are safe, according to UKMTO. Tanker reports explosion near Oman’s Khasab while transiting Strait of Hormuz, UKMTO says…
- US strikes Iranian island in Strait of HormuzJennifer Griffin reports on U.S. military strikes on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz after Iran targeted an American aircraft. Mike Pompeo also joins to analyze the conflict during 'The Faulkner Focus.' US strikes Iranian island in…
- How Iran is using the Strait of Hormuz to extort the WestBy Amine Ayoub, The Middle East Forum The diplomatic push in Doha is not a breakthrough in regional peacemaking; it is an exercise in extortion. As Qatar and Pakistan lead talks between Washington and Tehran, which are backed politically…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions