Predictions › Politics odds Every World leaders market on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com: the odds, the money behind them, the biggest moves and the news.
% US Dec
831 open markets · $4.1M traded today Trending world leaders markets
Before Dec 1, 2026 4% ▲ 1 Before Jan 1, 2027 8% ▲ 2 Before Feb 1, 2027 13% ▲ 2 Before Mar 1, 2027 14% ▼ 3 12 more Before Apr 1, 2027 23% ▲ 3 Before May 1, 2027 25% ▼ 2 Before Jun 1, 2027 35% ▲ 2 Before Jul 1, 2027 39% Before Aug 1, 2027 40% ▼ 1 Before Sep 1, 2027 42% ▼ 1 Before Oct 1, 2027 45% ▼ 1 Before Nov 1, 2027 49% Before Dec 1, 2027 52% ▲ 3 Before Jan 1, 2028 56% ▲ 2 Before Jul 1, 2028 66% ▲ 5 Before Jan 1, 2029 70%
Before January 20, 2029 14% ▲ 2 Before 2027 2%
140 230
Median 193.3 Middle half 185.8 – 202.8
250 340
Median 299.8 Middle half 288.1 – 309.8
160 230
Median 191.7 Middle half 187.3 – 195.6
160 230
Median 193.4 Middle half 188.7 – 199.4
Before January 21, 2029 12% ▼ 2 Before 2027 1%
Peru 100% Ukraine 10% ▲ 3 Portugal 7% Mexico 5% ▼ 1 6 more Jordan 5% Brazil 5% Philippines 5% Israel 4% South Sudan 4% USA 4%
Before Jan 1, 2027 5% Before Jan 1, 2028 32% ▼ 1 Before Jan 20, 2029 56%
Before Jan 1, 2027 39% ▲ 20 Before Jul 1, 2027 62% ▲ 35 Before Jan 1, 2028 62% ▲ 18
Before Dec 1, 2026 96% Before Jan 1, 2027 96%
Belize 7% Comoros 6% Djibouti 5% Mauritania 5% 7 more Maldives 4% Indonesia 3% Oman 3% Syria 2% Saudi Arabia 2% Lebanon 1% Iran 1%
175 240
Median 192.7 Middle half 183.7 – 205
250 340
Median 292.4 Middle half 282 – 304.9
Before Jan 20, 2029 17% ▲ 1 Before 2027 3%
Before Jan 1, 2027 4% Before Jan 1, 2028 16% Before Jan 1, 2029 30% Before Jan 1, 2030 31%
Switzerland 19% Qatar 17% Mexico 13% Russia 13% ▲ 1 5 more Poland 12% Venezuela 11% Ukraine 9% ▼ 1 Cuba 7% ▲ 1 Oman 5%
Israel 7% Germany 6% ▲ 3 Japan 3% Taiwan 3% 18 more Saudi Arabia 3% ▼ 1 North Korea 2% Qatar 2% Hungary 2% India 2% Russia 2% Cuba 2% Canada 2% Poland 2% Denmark 2% Italy 2% Vatican City 2% Mexico 2% Pakistan 2% Norway 2% Palestine 1% Venezuela 1% Ukraine 1%
Delcy Rodríguez 96% María Corina Machado 3% ▲ 1 Vladimir Padrino López 2% Jorge Rodríguez 2% ▲ 1 4 more Nicolás Maduro 2% Diosdado Cabello 1% Gustavo González López 1% Edmundo González Urrutia 1%
Before Jan 2027 1% Before Jan 2028 7% ▼ 5 Before Jan 21, 2029 11% ▼ 3
Before 2030 21% Before 2029 19% ▼ 1 Before 2028 8% Before 2027 2% Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.
For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.
Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use . How to use Predictions