The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Contracts
At least 2000
98%
▲ 1
97¢
98¢
$1.02
33.4K
At least 2500
93%
89¢
96¢
$1.04
2.4K
At least 3000
89%
▲ 1
86¢
91¢
$1.10
3.1K
At least 3500
83%
79¢
87¢
$1.15
962
At least 4000
76%
▲ 1
72¢
80¢
$1.25
1.6K
At least 4500
66%
▼ 2
63¢
69¢
$1.45
1.6K
At least 5000
54%
▼ 1
51¢
57¢
$1.75
44.9K
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
Measles cases race past 5,000 nationwide: CDCWashington Examiner · 3 days agoWashington Examiner is a news organization based in Washington, D.C., covering Congress, the White House, national security, the courts and elections, with breaking news, investigative reporting and conservative analysis. It publishes a…
The CDC has recorded more than 5,000 measles cases this yearThe Washington Post · 2 days agoThe Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has now recorded 5,182 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026 — the highest number of cases since 1991. Measles — which was declared eliminated in the United States in 2000 — is caused by a virus…
Minnesota, Wisconsin see worst measles outbreak in decades, and more headlinesCBS News · 4 days agoCBS News Minnesota is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as WCCO-TV and channel 4, CBS News Minnesota offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Minnesota…
Minnesota health officials preparing for rapid spread of measlesCBS News · 4 days agoCBS News Minnesota is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as WCCO-TV and channel 4, CBS News Minnesota offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Minnesota health…
Wisconsin reports measles death of a baby, first death in over 35 yearsArs Technica · 3 days agoNext week, experts will determine if the US has lost its measles elimination status. An infant in Wisconsin has died of measles, the first measles death in the state since 1990, officials reported Thursday. The death comes amid an outbreak…
U.S. on verge of losing measles elimination status as number of cases growsNBC News · 3 days agoThe United States is on the verge of losing its measles elimination status as cases top 5,000 nationwide for the first time in more than three decades. Pennsylvania, New York and Wisconsin have all reported measles-related deaths this…
As U.S. faces loss of measles-free status, health leaders rethink vaccine strategiesNBC News · 3 days agoAt a meeting this week, CDC staffers and public health groups agreed vaccines must be a major part of containing measles. How will the agency respond under Robert F. Kennedy Jr.? BREAKING: Cornell faculty senate issues no confidence vote…
Wisconsin reports first measles death in over 30 yearsWashington Examiner · 4 days agoWashington Examiner An infant in Wisconsin has died from measles, marking the state’s first death from the disease since 1990, state health officials announced Thursday. The coroner listed the immediate cause of death as measles, the state…
Infant dies in measles outbreak in southwest WisconsinCBS News · 4 days agoNovember 5, 2026 / 1:38 PM CST / CBS Chicago An infant recently died of measles in an outbreak in southwestern Wisconsin, that state's Department of Health Services announced Thursday. This was the measles death reported in Wisconsin since…
Minnesota measles count soars, with 80% of cases reported in Todd CountyCBS News · 4 days agoUpdated on: November 5, 2026 / 8:43 PM CST / CBS Minnesota Cases of measles have skyrocketed in Minnesota this past week. The Minnesota Department of Health on Thursday reported 59 new measles cases, bringing the total case count to 139 so…
Wisconsin reports infant measles death, first in more than three decadesThe Washington Post · 4 days agoThe Washington Post The state now joins Pennsylvania and New York in reporting measles deaths in 2026. An infant has died of measles amid a growing outbreak in southwestern Wisconsin, state health officials announced Thursday, the state’s…
Wisconsin infant is US’ third measles-related death this weekCNN · 4 days agoAn infant in Wisconsin has died in connection with an large, ongoing measles outbreak, the state health department said Thursday. The death marks the state’s first measles-related death in more than 35 years and the third reported in the…
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions