How many Senate seats will Democrats win in the Midterms?

Kalshi Politics › Congress Closes Jan 3, 2027 · $15K today · $115K traded · $57.4K at stake · prices read 31 min ago

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The odds

95%At least 22
2023

How the odds have moved

At least 21: 12% on Oct 20, 98% now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Why it moved

  1. Nov 4, 11 PM ETAt least 21: 86% → 96%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
✓ At least 10 99% ▲ 1 $1.01 153
✓ At least 11 99% ▲ 1 $1.01 3.4K
✓ At least 12 99% ▲ 1 $1.01 9.2K
✓ At least 13 99% ▲ 3 $1.01 1.4K
✓ At least 14 99% ▲ 6 $1.01 5.6K
✓ At least 15 99% ▲ 8 $1.01 11.7K
✓ At least 16 99% ▲ 18 $1.01 1.9K
✓ At least 17 99% ▲ 24 $1.01 11.8K
✓ At least 18 96% ▲ 27 $1.04 11.7K
✓ At least 19 99% ▲ 43 $1.01 20.2K
✓ At least 20 95% ▲ 56 $1.05 11.9K
At least 21 98% ▼ 1 96¢ $1.02 11.7K
At least 22 95% ▲ 1 94¢ 96¢ $1.04 17.7K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: U.S. Senate, Senate, Midterms

Search ›
  • Louisiana U.S. Senate resultsAP News · 5 days agoLive results for the 2026 Louisiana U.S. Senate general election. Track election results with real-time vote counts, county-level maps and race calls from AP. Louisiana U.S. Senate results AP's guide to this race When the nation waits for…
  • Alaska U.S. Senate resultsAP News · 5 days agoAlaska U.S. Senate Election Live Results 2026 AP News Alaska U.S. Senate results AP's guide to this race When the nation waits for results, who do you trust? For 178 years, AP has been the steady voice America turns to on election night…
  • Georgia U.S. Senate resultsAP News · 5 days agoGeorgia U.S. Senate Election Live Results 2026 AP News Georgia U.S. Senate results AP's guide to this race When the nation waits for results, who do you trust? For 178 years, AP has been the steady voice America turns to on election night…
  • Arkansas U.S. Senate resultsAP News · 6 days agoLive results for the 2026 Arkansas U.S. Senate general election. Track election results with real-time vote counts, county-level maps and race calls from AP. Arkansas U.S. Senate results AP's guide to this race When the nation waits for…
  • Maine U.S. Senate resultsAP News · 6 days agoLive results for the 2026 Maine U.S. Senate general election. Track election results with real-time vote counts, county-level maps and race calls from AP. Maine U.S. Senate results AP's guide to this race When the nation waits for results…
  • Michigan U.S. Senate resultsAP News · 6 days agoLive results for the 2026 Michigan U.S. Senate general election. Track election results with real-time vote counts, county-level maps and race calls from AP. Michigan U.S. Senate results AP's guide to this race When the nation waits for…
  • Alabama U.S. Senate resultsAP News · 6 days agoLive results for the 2026 Alabama U.S. Senate general election. Track election results with real-time vote counts, county-level maps and race calls from AP. Alabama U.S. Senate results AP's guide to this race When the nation waits for…
  • U.S. Senate resultsAP News · 6 days agoThe first hurdle Democrats must clear on their path to Senate control is holding the seats they already have. Of the 13 Democratic-held seats up for election, Georgia, Michigan and New Hampshire are among the most competitive–all three…
  • Kansas U.S. Senate resultsAP News · 6 days agoLive results for the 2026 Kansas U.S. Senate general election. Track election results with real-time vote counts, county-level maps and race calls from AP. Kansas U.S. Senate results AP's guide to this race When the nation waits for…
  • New Mexico U.S. Senate resultsAP News · 6 days agoNew Mexico U.S. Senate Election Live Results 2026 AP News New Mexico U.S. Senate results AP's guide to this race When the nation waits for results, who do you trust? For 178 years, AP has been the steady voice America turns to on election…
  • Ohio U.S. Senate resultsAP News · 6 days agoLive results for the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate general election. Track election results with real-time vote counts, county-level maps and race calls from AP. Ohio U.S. Senate results AP's guide to this race When the nation waits for results…
  • Tennessee U.S. Senate Election Live Results 2026AP News · 5 days agoAP News Tennessee U.S. Senate results AP's guide to this race When the nation waits for results, who do you trust? For 178 years, AP has been the steady voice America turns to on election night. Our reporters, election analysts and…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions