Will a cabinet member be impeached? (Before Jan 20, 2029)

Kalshi Politics › Congress Closes Jan 20, 2029 · $7.7K today · $136K traded · $52.5K at stake · prices read 19 min ago

Embed

The odds

79%Before Jan 1, 2027
  • Before Jan 1, 202779%▲ 8
  • Before Apr 1, 202793%▲ 13
  • Before Jul 1, 202794%▲ 11
  • Before Oct 1, 202794%▲ 5
  • Before Jan 1, 202894%▲ 6
  • Before Jan 20, 202994%▲ 2

How the odds have moved

Before Apr 1, 2027: 21% on Oct 20, 93% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Nov 8, 11 PM ETBefore Apr 1, 2027: 60% → 80%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

  2. Nov 6, 11 PM ETBefore Apr 1, 2027: 63% → 70%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Before Jan 1, 2027 79% ▲ 8 77¢ 80¢ $1.25 99.4K
Before Apr 1, 2027 93% ▲ 13 91¢ 94¢ $1.06 7.6K
Before Jul 1, 2027 94% ▲ 11 92¢ 96¢ $1.04 3.6K
Before Oct 1, 2027 94% ▲ 5 92¢ 96¢ $1.04 580
Before Jan 1, 2028 94% ▲ 6 93¢ 95¢ $1.05 42.4K
Before Jan 20, 2029 94% ▲ 2 93¢ 95¢ $1.05 7.8K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: impeachment

Search ›
  • Impeachment is back on the menuPOLITICO · 17 days agoThe unofficial guide to official Washington, every morning and weekday afternoons. 10/21/2026 01:40 PM EDT Impeachment dominated much of Donald Trump’s first presidency. Voters think it should come back for a sequel. Half of Americans…
  • Adam Schiff says Democrats should put 'overriding emphasis' on costs, not impeachmentNBC News · 15 days agoIn an exclusive interview with Meet the Press, Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) says Democratic oversight should focus on bringing down costs and corruption, that could potentially lead to impeachment. Kornacki: Where Democrats see openings for…
  • Madagascar coup leader sworn in as president after Andry Rajoelina impeached amid "Gen Z" protestsCBS News · 17 days agoOctober 17, 2025 / 8:52 AM EDT / CBS News Johannesburg — Large crowds gathered Friday in Madagascar's capital city to watch the leader of the African island nation's recent military coup be sworn in as its new president. Col. Michael…
  • House Democrats eye Hegseth impeachment if they win midtermsCrypto Briefing · 15 days agoEstefano Gomez is an editor at Crypto Briefing specializing in blockchain analysis, DeFi, and the intersection of crypto and digital art. He previously served as Editor in Chief at Interesante for over three years, where he covered…
  • Schiff warns Democrats: costs first, impeachment laterenmnews.com · 15 days agoAdam Schiff says Democrats need to keep their eyes on household costs, not on the fight over impeachment. In a political moment still shaped by inflation, rent, groceries and the price of everyday life, Schiff argued that voters are likely…
  • Hegseth Impeachment Bloodlust & Hakeem’s Two-StepYahoo News · 16 days agoBut Tran has abandoned any Trump niceties. "We have to end the corruption," Tran said, sounding almost exasperated. He listed Trump's grifty sins: a jet from Qatar. Meme coin millions. The mysterious Russian who helped fund Donald Trump…
  • House Dems Target Hegseth For Impeachment If They Win MidtermsZeroHedge · 15 days agoAuthored by AG News Staff via American Greatness, House Democrats are already plotting to impeach Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth if they regain control of Congress in November, making the Trump administration official a top target of their…
  • Schiff: Dem Oversight Could Led to Trump’s ImpeachmentBreitbart · 15 days agoSunday on NBC's "Meet the Press," Sen. Adam Schiff (D-CA) said if Democrats win back control of Congress, an impeachment of President Donald Trump is possible. The post Schiff: Dem Oversight Could Led to Trump’s Impeachment appeared first…
  • I.N.D.I.A bloc plans mock Parliament, CEC impeachmentThe Sunday Guardian · 16 days agoWith the Congress led INDIA bloc set to hold a massive public meeting titled ‘Vote Bachao, Desh Bachao’ on November 1 over alleged vote chori and its demand for the removal of Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar and scrapping of the…
  • Impeach Trump Y/N?Slate Magazine · 17 days agoAdvertisement Listen & Subscribe Choose your preferred player: Apple Podcasts Spotify TuneIn Pocket Casts RSS Feed For questions about subscriptions or your Slate Plus feed, check our FAQ. Please enable javascript to get your Slate Plus…
  • Trump Impeachment ‘Theater’ Loses Steam with LeftPolitical Wire · 17 days agoJust dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 192 “Progressive House members and candidates are taking a stark turn away from what they describe as ‘performative’ efforts to impeach President Trump,” Axios reports. “This is a drastic shift in tone…
  • Ex-Trump aide predicts how he will get Republicans to back his impeachmentAlternet.org · 15 days agoPresident Donald Trump on Capitol Hill, the U.S. Capitol, in Washington, D.C., June 24, 2026. REUTERS/Annabelle Gordon President Donald Trump could continue to "push the envelope" so much that even Republicans become sick of him enough to…

Related markets

All congress ›

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions