How many nominations will Trump send to the Senate this week? (11/8-11/14)
26.3median
-850
Median 26.3Middle half 23.1 – 29.5
Install
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
The odds
14.89%median
-100%100%
Median 14.89%Middle half 14.33% – 15.45%
How the odds have moved
Median: 8.79% on Oct 20, 14.89% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republicans win | <1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | 2.8M | ||
| Democrats, 0 to 2% | <1% | 0¢ | 706.8K | |||
| Democrats, 2 to 4% | <1% | 0¢ | 524.4K | |||
| Democrats, 4 to 6% | <1% | 0¢ | 373.6K | |||
| Democrats, 6 to 8% | <1% | 0¢ | 526.1K | |||
| Democrats, 8 to 10% | <1% | 0¢ | 531.1K | |||
| Democrats, 10 to 12% | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | 647.4K | ||
| Democrats, 12 to 14% | 9% | ▼ 8 | 9¢ | 10¢ | $10.31 | 844.2K |
| Democrats, 14 to 16% | 89% | ▲ 9 | 89¢ | 90¢ | $1.11 | 709.4K |
| Democrats, 16% and above | 1% | 1¢ | 1¢ | 587.7K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Midterms, House, Generic
Search ›- Kansas U.S. House Midterm Election 2026: Live ResultsThe expected vote is the total number of votes that are expected in a given race once all votes are counted. This number is an estimate and is based on several different factors, including information ... After a historic wave of…
- New Jersey House District 1 Midterm Election 2026: Live ResultsThe New Jersey House District 1 race has shifted 21.74 points toward Democrats compared with the 2024 presidential election. See the county-by-county breakdown below. Shift to Democrats Shift to ... After a historic wave of Democratic…
- White House sees shakeup after Democratic midterm victoriesCBS News Atlanta is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as WUPA and channel 69, CBS News Atlanta offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. White House sees…
- New Jersey House District 8 Midterm Election 2026: Live ResultsThe New Jersey House District 8 race has shifted 59.53 points toward Democrats compared with the 2024 presidential election. See the county-by-county breakdown below. Shift to Democrats Shift to ... After a historic wave of Democratic…
- New Jersey House District 9 Midterm Election 2026: Live ResultsThe New Jersey House District 9 race has shifted 36.1 points toward Democrats compared with the 2024 presidential election. See the county-by-county breakdown below. Shift to Democrats Shift to ... After a historic wave of Democratic…
- Georgia U.S. House Midterm Election 2026: Live ResultsThe expected vote is the total number of votes that are expected in a given race once all votes are counted. This number is an estimate and is based on several different factors, including information ... After a historic wave of…
- Four midterms takeaways for 2028 White House raceBallots are still being counted in the US midterm elections but the political landscape is already pivoting to the 2028 White House race. Buoyed by major gains in Congress, Democrats will have momentum as they prepare for the contest to…
- Midterms spark calls for White House shakeupsSenior Republican lawmakers and strategists have reportedly pressed the Trump administration to fire the Pentagon chief and swiftly end the Iran war. Midterms spark calls for White House shakeups The White House faced calls for policy and…
- Florida House District 15 Midterm Election 2026: Live ResultsDemocratic victories in red and battleground states, fueled in large part by opposition to Trump’s policies, propelled the party to win control of both the House and the Senate. After a historic wave of Democratic victories last night…
- New fallout from White House staffing shake-up after midtermsThere were new reactions Saturday after President Trump elevated his longtime adviser Stephen Miller as his new White House Chief of Staff, marking the president’s first major staffing shake-up since Republicans lost control of the House…
- These House and Senate midterm races don't have winners yetNovember 6, 2026 / 9:18 AM EST / CBS News The makeup of Congress shifted dramatically in the 2026 midterm elections, as Democrats decisively won control of the Senate and picked up dozens of House seats — in what's on track to be one of…
- House GOP erupts at Stephen Miller as Trump elevates him after midterm massacre: 'Megalomaniac'Fox News senior White House correspondent Peter Doocy reports on President Donald Trump's announcement that Stephen Miller will replace Susie Wiles as White House chief of staff on ‘America Reports.’ Several Republican lawmakers are fuming…
Related markets
All congress ›Will the House vote on impeaching Pete Hegseth? (Before 2027)
90%Before Nov 14, 2026
- Before Nov 14, 202690%▲ 13
- Before Nov 21, 202691%▲ 2
- Before Jan 1, 202793%▼ 1
How many Senate seats will Democrats win in the Midterms?
95%At least 22
2023
Will a cabinet member be impeached? (Before Jan 20, 2029)
81%Before Jan 1, 2027
- Before Jan 1, 202781%▲ 8
- Before Apr 1, 202792%▲ 13
- Before Jul 1, 202794%▲ 10
3 more
- Before Oct 1, 202794%▲ 5
- Before Jan 1, 202894%▲ 7
- Before Jan 20, 202994%▲ 1
Government shutdown on Dec 12, 2026?
35%chance▼ 2
How many House Republicans will vote to impeach Pete Hegseth? (Before Jan 3, 2027)
6.31median
-128
Median 6.31Middle half 1.62 – 9.87
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions