Fed Funds (EFFR) at end of Q4 2026

Kalshi Economy › The Fed Closes Jan 4, 2027 · $5.3K traded · $2.5K at stake · prices read 2 h ago

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The odds

4.1%median

3.25%4.75%

Median 4.1%Middle half 4.02% – 4.18%

How the odds have moved

Median: 4.15% on Oct 6, 4.1% now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Above 3.50%	100%		99¢			1.5K
Above 3.75%	99%		13¢		$1.01	2.3K
Above 4.00%	82%	▼ 17	79¢	85¢	$1.18	1.2K
Above 4.25%	3%		1¢	3¢	$33.33	5.1K
Above 4.50%	3%		2¢	17¢	$5.88	16.1K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Federal Reserve, Fed, FOMC

Search ›

Will a Federal Reserve Interest Rate Hike Trigger a Recession? Here's What History Says.The Motley Fool · 13 h agoTrading activity implies a 70% probability that the federal funds rate will be higher before year-end. After its meeting that ended Oct. 28, the Federal Reserve decided to leave its federal funds rate unchanged. This comes after it raised…
Federal Reserve: December rate hike view reinforced – CommerzbankFXStreet · 22 h ago"The report reinforces our view that the Federal Reserve will raise rates again in December because of inflation risks." "Of the 18 Fed officials who submitted projections for the appropriate path of interest rates in September, 16…
Federal Reserve Board announces approval of two applications by Mutual Federal Bancorp, MHC, and MFB Bancorp, Inc.federalreserve.gov · 9 h agoThe Federal Reserve Board on Monday announced its approval of two applications by Mutual Federal Bancorp, MHC, and MFB Bancorp, Inc., both of Chicago, Illinois An official website of the United States Government Official websites use .gov…
Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates Steady at 3.50%-3.75%@YWN · 34 h agoBREAKING: The Federal Reserve on Wednesday kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%, seeking to signal stability as the U.S. financial picture diverges sharply between a record-setting stock market and a weakening currency. Federal…
Labor force rebounds, raising new questions for the Fed: Here's what you need to knowCNBC · 18 h agoCNBC's Steve Liesman joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of the labor market, the Federal Reserve, and more. Got a confidential news tip? We want to hear from you. Sign up for free newsletters and ... Labor force rebounds, raising new…
Trump talked with Fed chief, but there’s no record of it on Warsh’s calendarThe Washington Post · 21 h agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Kevin Warsh’s…
President Donald Trump Just Proclaimed That "Inflation Is Way Down," but Federal Reserve Economists Have a Different TakeThe Motley Fool · 3 days agoNot only are consumer prices rising, but two of President Trump’s policies are partly to blame. From a purely statistical standpoint, Wall Street has relished having Donald Trump in the White House. The average annual return of the…
Fed to cut rate-vote meetings under Warsh FOMC planValueWalk · 42 h agoTwo of eight annual FOMC meetings would stop carrying rate votes under Chairman Kevin Warsh's plan, a change Bloomberg reported would begin in 2027 and complete by 2028. The Federal Reserve’s eight policy meetings a year are the metronome…
Democrats' midterm sweep gives gold a boost, but the Federal Reserve still holds the cardsKitco News · 3 days ago(Kitco News) - The Democratic Party's sweeping victory in the U.S. midterm elections has created some positive momentum in the gold market, but recent price action shows that political developments remain a secondary concern as the Federal…
New Federal Reserve Research Finds Cutting Merchant Swipe Fees Even Hurts Consumers Who Don’t Earn RewardsView from the Wing · 3 days agoby Gary Leff on November 6, 2026 You can earn no miles, no points and no cash back from your credit card and still lose if the government cuts credit card merchant swipe fees. Research from two Philadelphia Federal Reserve economists…
FILE PHOTO: New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams speaks in New YorkThe Daily News · 4 days agoThe Daily News | Texas' Oldest Newspaper - Bikes, bands and big crowds bound for Galveston - Texas Land Commissioner Dawn Buckingham loses to Democratic challenger - Police charge two La Marque residents after child reports sexual abuse…
Branches of The Federal Reserve SystemDepartment of Economics · 4 days agoThe Board of Governors is the main governing body of the Federal Reserve System. The board comprises seven members. They are generally nominated by the President and are confirmed by the Senate, for a tenure of fourteen years. One term…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onFederal Reserve Bank of New York

Trading closesJan 4, 2027 8:59 AM ET

Traded$5.3K (26,131 contracts)

At stake$2.5K

In the news108 headlines today, 1,070 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for December 31, 2026 is above 3.50%, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Prices it is about

5Y Yield^FVX · moves with it4.659+0.24%
S&P 500^GSPC · moves with it7,549.94+2.35%
3M T-Bill^IRX · moves with it4.035+0.87%
10Y Yield^TNX · moves with it4.864+0.10%
IEFIEF · moves with it91.80−0.07%
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury BondSHY · moves with it81.59−0.05%
SPYSPY · moves with it752.69+2.37%
TLTTLT · moves with it81.96+0.05%

From 4Progressives Finance. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions