Fed Decision in December?
80%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase80%▲ 3
- No change19%▼ 4
- 25 bps decrease1%
2 more
- 50+ bps increase1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Install
US crude oil inventories for the week ending November 6, 2026
The odds
413.3median
402416
Median 413.3Middle half 407.5 – 414.4
How the odds have moved
Median: 413.8 on Nov 7, 413.3 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 403 million barrels | 94% | ▼ 1 | 93¢ | 94¢ | $1.06 | 20.00 |
| Above 404 million barrels | 90% | 87¢ | 92¢ | $1.09 | 26.00 | |
| Above 405 million barrels | 86% | ▲ 1 | 82¢ | 90¢ | $1.11 | |
| Above 406 million barrels | 84% | 81¢ | 87¢ | $1.15 | ||
| Above 407 million barrels | 81% | ▲ 3 | 79¢ | 83¢ | $1.20 | 4.00 |
| Above 408 million barrels | 70% | 66¢ | 74¢ | $1.35 | ||
| Above 409 million barrels | 63% | ▲ 1 | 60¢ | 65¢ | $1.54 | 670 |
| Above 410 million barrels | 58% | ▼ 1 | 51¢ | 55¢ | $1.82 | 508 |
| Above 411 million barrels | 58% | ▲ 9 | 48¢ | 55¢ | $1.82 | 173 |
| Above 412 million barrels | 58% | 30¢ | 42¢ | $2.38 | 7.00 | |
| Above 413 million barrels | 58% | 28¢ | 42¢ | $2.38 | 220 | |
| Above 414 million barrels | 28% | ▲ 2 | 23¢ | 32¢ | $3.13 | 31.00 |
| Above 415 million barrels | 21% | ▲ 1 | 18¢ | 23¢ | $4.35 | 10.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: oil prices, crude oil, OPEC
Search ›- Long-Run Outlook for World Crude Oil PricesTrump administration officials have asserted that international prices for crude oil will decline sharply when export flows through the Strait of Hormuz and other waterways return to the volumes prevailing before military action against…
- Oil Price Today (November 10): Crude oil falls below $92 as Trump says Iran war is effectively over. What lies ahead?Crude oil price: Brent crude futures fell 81 cents, or 0.88%, to drop below $92 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures slipped 79 cents, or 0.91%, to $86 a barrel. Brent settled down 5.85% in the previous session after…
- Stock markets end higher amid easing crude oil prices, buying in banksPublished - November 09, 2026 04:55 pm IST - Mumbai Market benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty ended higher on Monday (November 9, 2026) amid a correction in crude oil prices and buying in blue-chip bank and financial stocks. The 30-share…
- Crude oil prices crash nearly 2% after Trump rules out fresh attack on IranGlobal crude oil prices dropped sharply after United States President Donald Trump ruled out a fresh attack on Iran. In an interview with CNN, Trump cast doubt on the possibility of renewed fighting with Iran. According to the US…
- Crude Oil Prices Slide As Trump Signals Restraint On Iran Despite Fresh Shipping AttacksCrude oil prices declined as markets weighed fresh attacks on commercial shipping against US President Donald Trump's signals of restraint towards Iran, easing concerns over an immediate escalation in the West Asia conflict. The softer…
- Oil prices fall on renewed hopes for an end to Iran warOil prices fell on renewed signs of diplomacy to end the Iran war, though dissent from Washington dampened outright optimism. US President Donald Trump, who will meet with Qatar’s prime minister today, downplayed the prospect of a return…
- Crude oil price today: Brent slips below $99, WTI near $91 as Trump signals ‘highly unlikely’ US strikes on IranOil prices extended their decline on Monday, November 9, following their sharpest weekly fall since April 2020, as market participants evaluated prospects for a diplomatic resolution to the US-Iran conflict despite continued regional…
- Dow futures rally 500 points as oil prices drop; traders brace for more data and earningsData is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes. Global Business and Financial News, Stock Quotes, and Market Data and Analysis. Data also provided by ... Dow futures rally 500 points as oil prices drop; traders brace for…
- China’s crude oil imports drop 15% in first 10 months of 2026Estefano Gomez is an editor at Crypto Briefing specializing in blockchain analysis, DeFi, and the intersection of crypto and digital art. He previously served as Editor in Chief at Interesante for over three years, where he covered…
- Stock to buy: Elara Capital recommends this oil share amid volatility in crude oil prices | Check target, upsideStock to buy: Brokerage firm Elara Capital has recommended oil-producing stock Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited (ONGC) to buy, citing opportunities amid volatility in crude oil prices as the US-Iran conflict continues. The brokerage…
- Stock Market Today Highlights, Nov 9: Stock markets end higher amid easing crude oil prices, buying in banksSensex Today, Nifty 50 | Stock Market Highlights: The 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 107.25 points, or 0.13%, to settle at 81,106.65. The 50-share NSE Nifty rose 58.25 points, or 0.23%, to close at 25,044.65. In the 30 Sensex firms, State…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions