Wisconsin manufacturing employment average in 2026
456,512median
445,000465,000
Median 456,512Middle half 454,940 – 458,238
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November 2026 Employment Combo · U3 & NFP
The odds
19%U3: 4.2%, NFP growth: Below 100k
- U3: 4.2%, NFP growth: Below 100k19%▼ 1
- U3: 4.1%, NFP growth: Below 100k16%▼ 1
- U3: 4.0% or below, NFP growth: Below 100k13%▼ 2
- U3: 4.2%, NFP growth: 100-199k11%▼ 1
- U3: 4.1%, NFP growth: 100-199k9%▼ 1
- U3: 4.0% or below, NFP growth: 100-199k8%▼ 1
- U3: 4.3% or above, NFP growth: Below 100k4%▼ 1
- U3: 4.3% or above, NFP growth: 100-199k4%▼ 1
- U3: 4.0% or below, NFP growth: 200k or above3%▼ 1
- U3: 4.1%, NFP growth: 200k or above3%▼ 1
- U3: 4.2%, NFP growth: 200k or above3%▼ 1
- U3: 4.3% or above, NFP growth: 200k or above2%
How the odds have moved
U3: 4.2%, NFP growth: Below 100k: 19% on Nov 7, 19% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U3: 4.2%, NFP growth: Below 100k | 19% | ▼ 1 | 15¢ | 24¢ | $4.17 | |
| U3: 4.1%, NFP growth: Below 100k | 16% | ▼ 1 | 12¢ | 21¢ | $4.76 | |
| U3: 4.0% or below, NFP growth: Below 100k | 13% | ▼ 2 | 10¢ | 17¢ | $5.88 | |
| U3: 4.2%, NFP growth: 100-199k | 11% | ▼ 1 | 7¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | |
| U3: 4.1%, NFP growth: 100-199k | 9% | ▼ 1 | 5¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | |
| U3: 4.0% or below, NFP growth: 100-199k | 8% | ▼ 1 | 4¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | |
| U3: 4.3% or above, NFP growth: Below 100k | 4% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | |
| U3: 4.3% or above, NFP growth: 100-199k | 4% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | |
| U3: 4.0% or below, NFP growth: 200k or above | 3% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | |
| U3: 4.1%, NFP growth: 200k or above | 3% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | |
| U3: 4.2%, NFP growth: 200k or above | 3% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | |
| U3: 4.3% or above, NFP growth: 200k or above | 2% | 5¢ | $20.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: U3 & NFP, Employment Combo
Search ›No recent headlines name this market's subject.
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions