How many government employees will Trump cut? (2026)

Kalshi Economy › The Fed Closes Mar 4, 2027 · $1.6K traded · $480 at stake · prices read 30 min ago

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The odds

11%More than 100,000

50,000400,000

How the odds have moved

More than 100,000: 11% on Oct 20, 11% now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
More than 100,000	11%	8¢	14¢	$7.14	7.4K
More than 150,000	8%	5¢	10¢	$10.00	7.6K
More than 200,000	6%	2¢	9¢	$11.11	878
More than 250,000	5%	1¢	8¢	$12.50	2.3K
More than 300,000	4%	1¢	6¢	$16.67	625
More than 350,000	3%	2¢	3¢	$33.33	1.4K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Trump

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Trump goes full Trump with his new chief of staff pickCNN · 3 days agoOn Tuesday, Republicans lost Texas in a blue wave driven in part by the defection of Latino voters over President Donald Trump’s heavy-handed mass deportation strategy. On Friday, the architect of that strategy, Stephen Miller, one of…
Trump DOJ appointee who led ‘grand conspiracy’ probe of Trump foes resignsNBC News · 3 days agoWASHINGTON — The Donald Trump appointee who headed the office running a so-called “grand conspiracy” investigation looking into federal law enforcement officials who were involved in prior investigations of Trump has resigned. Attorney…
Amazon's Jeff Bezos wants to blast Trump into spaceCBS News · 3 days agoDecember 8, 2015 / 1:28 PM EST / MoneyWatch Amazon.com (AMZN) founder Jeff Bezos is reaching stratospheric popularity with only his fourth tweet ever. That's because the billionaire entrepreneur suggested sending Republican candidate…
What midterm election 'blue wave' rebuke of Trump means for renewable energyCNBC · 2 days agoAs recently as 2022, many leaders in corporate America and the investment community were singing the praises of ESG — environmental, social, governance — as the foundation of stakeholder capitalism. It didn't take long for that tune to…
Trump Admin’s Student Loan Limits Push Borrowers to Private LendersNewsweek · 3 days agoNov 06, 2026 at 04:15 PM EST New federal student loan limits enacted under President Donald Trump are reshaping how Americans pay for graduate school, and some borrowers are increasingly turning to private lenders because federal aid no…
Trump Shares Posts Questioning Midterm Election ResultsNewsweek · 2 days agoNov 07, 2026 at 01:28 PM EST President Donald Trump shared social media posts Saturday questioning the scale of Democrats’ midterm election gains, days after saying he was “absolutely willing” to accept the results of an election that cost…
Trump replaces Susie Wiles with Stephen MillerCBS News · 2 days agoCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. White House…
Why Trump Should Still Talk to North KoreaNewsweek · 2 days agoNov 07, 2026 at 02:01 PM EST Nov 07, 2026 at 02:04 PM EST Deputy Editor, National Security and Foreign Policy As President Donald Trump's party reels from a substantial blow in the midterm elections, the U.S. leader may turn to an unlikely…
Iowa voters saw through Trump’s steel promiseThe Washington Post · 2 days agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. The government should…
Trump blasts the Senate: 'Nothing is getting through'Fox News · 2 days agoPresident Donald Trump slams the Senate, saying nothing is getting through and that it is one of the 'biggest' problems. Trump says voters saw these Senate flaws. Trump blasts the Senate: 'Nothing is getting through' President Donald Trump…
Trump calls for Justice Department to investigate DemocratsThe Washington Post · 2 days agoPresident Donald Trump on Saturday urged the Justice Department to investigate Democrats who have pledged to scrutinize his administration, writing on social media that their actions were “extortion” and “Weaponization and Lawfare at…
Trump calls out Senate Republicans after midterm lossesFox News · 2 days agoRon Johnson, R-Wisc., joins 'Saturday in America' to discuss President Donald Trump's comments to Senate Republicans and a new bid for Senate minority leader. Trump calls out Senate Republicans after midterm losses Ron Johnson, R-Wisc…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onFRED, Bureau of Labor Statistics

Trading closesMar 4, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$1.6K (20,231 contracts)

At stake$480

In the news2,436 headlines today, 5,000 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If there are more than 100000 federal employees no longer working relative to the December 2025 employee count before January 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions