Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?

Kalshi Politics › Supreme Court & courts Closes Dec 31 · $1.4K today · $204K traded · $74.4K at stake · prices read 17 min ago

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The odds

23%Ilhan Omar
  • Ilhan Omar23%▼ 2
  • John Brennan12%▲ 1
  • Miles Taylor9%▲ 1
  • Dan J. Sullivan8%
  • Peter Strzok7%
  • Fani Willis7%
  • Leon Black7%
  • James Clapper6%▼ 2
  • Letitia James6%▼ 1
  • Hunter Biden6%
  • Andrew Weissmann6%
  • Reid Hoffman6%
31 more
  • Cassidy Hutchinson6%▲ 1
  • Keith Ellison5%
  • Anthony Fauci5%
  • Kimberly Guilfoyle5%▼ 2
  • Adam Schiff5%
  • Lisa Monaco5%
  • Joe Kent4%
  • Jack Smith4%
  • Chris Krebs4%
  • Gustavo Petro4%
  • Tim Walz4%▲ 1
  • Elissa Slotkin4%
  • Christopher Wray4%▼ 1
  • Jacob Frey4%
  • Gavin Newsom4%
  • Jennifer Siebel Newsom4%▲ 1
  • Liz Cheney3%▼ 1
  • Mark Milley3%
  • Bill Clinton3%
  • Alvin Bragg3%
  • E. Jean Carroll3%
  • Chris Christie2%
  • Hillary Clinton2%
  • Lisa Cook2%
  • Tucker Carlson2%
  • Mark Kelly2%
  • Pam Bondi2%
  • Barack Obama2%
  • George Soros2%
  • Jerome Powell1%
  • Joe Biden1%

How the odds have moved

Ilhan Omar: 39% on Oct 20, 23% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Nov 3, 11 PM ETIlhan Omar: 42% → 31%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

  2. Oct 28, 11 PM ETIlhan Omar: 41% → 47%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Ilhan Omar 23% ▼ 2 22¢ 23¢ $4.35 516.7K
John Brennan 12% ▲ 1 11¢ 12¢ $8.33 81.5K
Miles Taylor 9% ▲ 1 8¢ 10¢ $10.00 2.1K
Dan J. Sullivan 8% 7¢ 8¢ $12.50 22.1K
Peter Strzok 7% 7¢ 8¢ $12.82 12.6K
Fani Willis 7% 6¢ 8¢ $12.66 14.4K
Leon Black 7% 6¢ 7¢ $14.29 353
James Clapper 6% ▼ 2 6¢ 6¢ $16.39 22.4K
Letitia James 6% ▼ 1 6¢ 6¢ $16.95 72.6K
Hunter Biden 6% 6¢ 6¢ $17.24 25.4K
Andrew Weissmann 6% 5¢ 6¢ $16.67 5.8K
Reid Hoffman 6% 5¢ 6¢ $16.67 7.0K
Cassidy Hutchinson 6% ▲ 1 5¢ 6¢ $16.67 22.9K
Keith Ellison 5% 5¢ 5¢ $18.52 23.2K
Anthony Fauci 5% 5¢ 5¢ $18.87 558.6K
Kimberly Guilfoyle 5% ▼ 2 4¢ 6¢ $16.67 24.3K
Adam Schiff 5% 5¢ 5¢ $20.41 55.0K
Lisa Monaco 5% 4¢ 5¢ $20.00 1.9K
Joe Kent 4% 4¢ 5¢ $22.22 6.7K
Jack Smith 4% 4¢ 5¢ $21.28 81.3K
Chris Krebs 4% 3¢ 6¢ $17.54 10.8K
Gustavo Petro 4% 4¢ 4¢ $24.39 15.7K
Tim Walz 4% ▲ 1 3¢ 5¢ $20.83 288.7K
Elissa Slotkin 4% 4¢ 4¢ $25.00 10.6K
Christopher Wray 4% ▼ 1 3¢ 4¢ $23.81 7.8K
Jacob Frey 4% 4¢ 4¢ $27.78 17.3K
Gavin Newsom 4% 3¢ 4¢ $25.00 29.5K
Jennifer Siebel Newsom 4% ▲ 1 3¢ 4¢ $25.00 15.4K
Liz Cheney 3% ▼ 1 3¢ 3¢ $30.30 13.4K
Mark Milley 3% 3¢ 3¢ $30.30 9.6K
Bill Clinton 3% 3¢ 4¢ $28.57 73.1K
Alvin Bragg 3% 3¢ 3¢ $35.71 30.3K
E. Jean Carroll 3% 2¢ 3¢ $33.33 24.5K
Chris Christie 2% 2¢ 2¢ $41.67 8.2K
Hillary Clinton 2% 2¢ 3¢ $38.46 71.7K
Lisa Cook 2% 2¢ 2¢ $47.62 34.8K
Tucker Carlson 2% 2¢ 2¢ $50.00 15.7K
Mark Kelly 2% 2¢ 2¢ $55.56 21.8K
Pam Bondi 2% 1¢ 2¢ $52.63 28.4K
Barack Obama 2% 1¢ 2¢ $52.63 157.2K
George Soros 2% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 30.9K
Jerome Powell 1% 1¢ 1¢ $83.33 30.0K
Joe Biden 1% 1¢ 1¢ $90.91 33.4K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Ilhan Omar, John Brennan, Miles Taylor

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No recent headlines name this market's subject.

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All supreme court & courts ›
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What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear in 2026?

7%Moylan v. Guam Society of Obstetrician and Gynecologists
  • Moylan v. Guam Society of Obstetrician and Gynecologists7%▼ 1
  • Republican National Committee v. Eakin6%▼ 2
  • Duncan v. Bonta6%
5 more
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  • Norfolk Southern Railway v. Mallory4%▼ 1
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  • Khalid Shaikh Mohammad v. United States2%
KalshiCloses Jan 1, 2027 · $4.2K today

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions