Fed Decision in December?
80%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase80%▲ 3
- No change19%▼ 4
- 25 bps decrease1%
2 more
- 50+ bps increase1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
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Which Federal Reserve precedents will be broken? (Before Jan 1, 2027)
The odds
7%Dot Plot Omitted
- Dot Plot Omitted7%
- Reserve President Rejected6%▼ 1
- Reserve President Removed5%
- Trimmed Mean Emphasized5%
- Presser Skipped4%
How the odds have moved
Dot Plot Omitted: 12% on Oct 20, 7% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 28, 9 PM ETDot Plot Omitted: 12% → 5%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dot Plot Omitted | 7% | 5¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 18.5K | |
| Reserve President Rejected | 6% | ▼ 1 | 2¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | 7.2K |
| Reserve President Removed | 5% | 2¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 184 | |
| Trimmed Mean Emphasized | 5% | 2¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | 3.7K | |
| Presser Skipped | 4% | 2¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 18.3K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Federal Reserve, Dot Plot Omitted, Reserve President Rejected
Search ›No recent headlines name this market's subject.
Related markets
All the fed ›Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
83%chance▲ 7
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
98%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)98%
- 2 (50 bps)1%
- 1 (25 bps)1%
10 more
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
Fed rate cut by...?
48%July 2027 Meeting
- July 2027 Meeting48%▼ 1
- April 2027 Meeting48%
- June 2027 Meeting32%▲ 1
4 more
- March 2027 Meeting12%▼ 1
- January 2027 Meeting7%
- December 2026 Meeting1%
- October 2026 Meeting<1%
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
79%2 (50 bps)
- 2 (50 bps)79%▲ 2
- 1 (25 bps)19%▼ 4
- 3 (75 bps)1%
2 more
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 5+ (125+ bps)<1%
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
81%Hike–Pause–Hike
- Hike–Pause–Hike81%▲ 6
- Hike–Pause–Pause17%▼ 4
- Other1%
2 more
- Hike–Hike–Hike<1%▼ 3
- Hike–Hike–Pause<1%▼ 2
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions