Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (10/19 - 10/25)

Kalshi World › Middle East Closed Oct 27 · $360 today · $8.9K traded · $4.8K at stake

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Settled October 23A day before, traders gave it 18%: an upset.

The last odds before it closed

34%October 21
  • ✓ October 2314%▼ 2
  • October 2134%▼ 13
  • October 1915%▼ 1
  • October 2212%▲ 2
  • October 253%▲ 1
  • October 241%▼ 3
  • October 201%▼ 7

How the odds have moved

October 21: 14% on Oct 19, 34% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Oct 27, 8 AM ETOctober 21: 56% → 34%
  2. Oct 21, 7 PM ETOctober 21: 14% → 20%

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Last odds Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
✗ October 21 34% 10.3K
✗ October 19 15% 14.4K
✓ October 23 14% 11.3K
✗ October 22 12% 10.5K
✗ October 25 3% 7.0K
✗ October 24 1% 5.8K
✗ October 20 1% 17.5K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Iran, Peak Strait of Hormuz

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  • U.N.: Enriched Uranium Traces In IranCBS News · 2 h agoMay 12, 2006 / 4:04 PM EDT / CBS/AP U.N. inspectors have found traces of highly enriched uranium on equipment from an Iranian research center linked to the military, diplomats said Friday — a revelation likely to strengthen U.S. arguments…
  • Trump: New Iran attacks "quite unlikely"Axios · 4 h agoPresident Trump said Monday that a renewed military campaign against Iran is "quite unlikely" and "doesn't seem to be necessary."Why it matters: Trump stopped short of saying the war was over, but his comments on Truth Social and at an…
  • France accuses Iran of cyber 'sabotage' in fridge attacksNPR · 4 h agoA woman walks past empty refrigerators at an Intermarché supermarket in Névez, western France, on Oct. 12, following a cyberattack affecting the French supermarket chains Intermarché and Cooperative U that caused their refrigerators to…
  • France accuses Iran of supermarket fridge hackingBBC News · 9 h agoFrance has accused Iran of being behind cyber-attacks that affected supermarket fridges and freezers. Speaking at a news conference, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot said the attack was carried out by the Islamic Revolutionary…
  • Oil drops as Trump signals restraint with IranFox Business · 6 h ago'The Big Money Show' debates President Donald Trump's strategy regarding the conflict in Iran as he signals restraint and the impact of the war and gas prices on the midterm elections. Oil drops as Trump signals restraint with Iran 'The…
  • US ‘Task Force Iron Gate’ tightens grip on IranFox News · 5 h agoFox News chief foreign correspondent Trey Yingst reports on the U.S. launch of ‘Task Force Iron Gate,’ aimed at disrupting the movement of advanced Iranian weapons systems, on ‘America Reports.’ ... US ‘Task Force Iron Gate’ tightens grip…
  • Tanker ENGULFED IN FLAMES after Iranian attacksFox News · 10 h agoDramatic video captures a tanker set abalze near Oman, sending a massive plume of black smoke into the sky. The IRGC claims it struck three tankers Sunday, accusing them of traveling through 'unauthorized routes' in the Strait of Hormuz…
  • Hakeem Jeffries says Iran is 'stronger now' under Pete HegsethFox News · 4 h ago©2026 Fox News Network, LLC. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. All market data delayed 20 minutes. Hakeem Jeffries says Iran is 'stronger now' under Pete Hegseth House Minority…
  • Hegseth impeachment effort begins in House, focused on Iran warThe Washington Post · 6 h agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Republican Rep. Thomas…
  • Trump signals Iran breakthrough as Tehran issues 48-hour ultimatumFox Business · 9 h agoNational security strategy takes center stage as President Donald Trump scales back his warnings regarding renewed military strikes on Iran. Stuart Varney and Will Thibeau discuss the geopolitical implications of Pete Hegseth calling for…
  • France accuses Iran’s Revolutionary Guards of hacking supermarket refrigeratorsNBC News · 7 h agoFrench Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot on ⁠Monday accused Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corp of being ⁠behind ​a ⁠recent cyberattack on ⁠French supermarket fridges, ​saying there ⁠would ‌be consequences for the Islamic Republic. Meanwhile…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions