The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Traded
✓ July 18
>99%
100¢
100¢
$246K
✓ July 20
>99%
100¢
100¢
$351K
✓ July 22
>99%
100¢
100¢
$953K
✓ July 23
>99%
100¢
100¢
$279K
✓ July 24
>99%
100¢
100¢
$773K
✓ July 25
>99%
100¢
100¢
$2.7M
✓ July 26
>99%
100¢
100¢
$1.1M
✓ July 27
>99%
100¢
100¢
$539K
✓ July 28
>99%
100¢
100¢
$393K
✓ July 29
>99%
100¢
100¢
$648K
✓ July 30
>99%
100¢
100¢
$553K
✓ July 31
>99%
100¢
100¢
$3.4M
✓ August 1
>99%
100¢
100¢
$1.4M
✓ August 2
>99%
100¢
100¢
$3M
✓ August 3
>99%
100¢
100¢
$1.1M
✓ August 4
>99%
100¢
100¢
$862K
✓ August 9
>99%
100¢
100¢
$2.4M
✓ August 15
>99%
100¢
100¢
$2.5M
✓ August 31
>99%
100¢
100¢
$3.3M
✓ September 15
>99%
▲ 1
100¢
100¢
$163K
✓ September 30
>99%
▲ 1
100¢
100¢
$3.3M
✓ October 9
>99%
▲ 1
100¢
100¢
$60.1K
✓ October 15
>99%
▲ 2
100¢
100¢
$955K
✓ October 18
>99%
▲ 2
100¢
100¢
$805K
✓ October 21
>99%
▲ 1
100¢
100¢
$1.5M
✓ October 24
>99%
100¢
100¢
$294K
✓ October 27
>99%
100¢
100¢
$511K
October 29
94%
100¢
100¢
$5.3K
October 30
94%
100¢
100¢
$51.9K
October 31
94%
▲ 1
100¢
100¢
$4.4M
November 1
94%
100¢
100¢
$241K
November 2
94%
100¢
100¢
$504K
November 3
94%
100¢
100¢
$614K
November 4
94%
100¢
100¢
$674K
November 5
94%
100¢
100¢
$741K
November 6
94%
100¢
100¢
$88K
November 7
94%
100¢
100¢
$2M
November 15
94%
▲ 4
94¢
95¢
$1.05
$2.1M
November 22
94%
▲ 8
90¢
91¢
$1.10
$4K
November 30
94%
▲ 9
83¢
84¢
$1.19
$1.2M
December 15
94%
▲ 10
73¢
74¢
$1.35
$5K
December 31
94%
▲ 10
66¢
67¢
$1.49
$2.3M
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
Iran executes 3 men accused of links to US and Israel, protesting against regimeNew York Post · 42 h agoIran executed three men on Sunday after they were convicted of carrying out operations for Israel and the US and taking part in armed unrest during anti-government protests in January, state media reported. The executions are the latest…
Israel makes new threat against IranRT International · 34 h agoIsrael is not done with Iran, Defense Minister Israel Katz has warned. He accused Tehran of reviving its nuclear weapons ambitions and vowed to pursue offensive military action to counter any threats. The threat follows new US strikes…
WATCH: Anti-Israel demonstrators target Jewish-owned restaurantsFox News · 15 h agoTensions flare in Philadelphia as anti-Israel demonstrators target Jewish-owned restaurants, drawing hundreds of counter protesters into the streets. WATCH: Anti-Israel demonstrators target Jewish-owned restaurants Tensions flare in…
Eisenkot gets nod to form Israeli governmentsemafor.com · 28 h agoIsrael’s president tapped Gadi Eisenkot to try to form the country’s next government, kicking off a tortuous negotiating process that could oust long-serving Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Israelâs president tapped Gadi Eisenkot to…
Londoners condemn US-Israeli threats against IranTehran Times · 34 h agoTEHRAN – Anti-war activists, civil society campaigners and Iranian expatriates staged a demonstration outside the US Embassy in London on Saturday, condemning Washington's military threats against Iran and demanding an end to US and…
A new Congress looks to remake the U.S.-Israel relationshipThe Washington Post · 17 h agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. A consensus is…
BBC Audio | Newshour | Eisenkot asked to form Israel's new governmentBBC News · 26 h agoHe now has up to six weeks to form a government . Eisenkot asked to form Israel's new government Available for 29 days The man tasked with forming Israel's next administration, Gadi Eisenkot, has said he plans to establish a national…
Iran renewing nuclear weapons efforts, Israeli defense minister warnsWIN · 34 h agoCalling for national unity, Israel’s defense minister warned that Iran is moving to resume its efforts to build nuclear weapons. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz warned Sunday that Iran was attempting to revive its nuclear weapons…
Israel Defence Minister says 'mission not complete' on IranThe Hindu · 38 h agoPublished - November 08, 2026 06:30 pm IST - Jerusalem Israel is not finished with Iran, its Defence Minister said Sunday (November 8, 2026), as he also warned Tehran's Lebanese ally Hezbollah to hold fire in any resumption of war. Also…
Marco Rubio defends Trump's Iran actionFox News · 27 h agoSecretary of State Marco Rubio defended President Donald Trump's actions against Iran on Sunday, arguing he confronted a national security threat that previous presidents failed to address. Marco Rubio defends Trump's Iran action Secretary…
Israel's president taps Netanyahu's political rival to form a new governmentNPR · 17 h agoIsrael's president has tapped Benjamin Netanyahu's chief political rival, Gadi Eisenkot, to form a new government following an inconclusive election that left the country's leadership in limbo. Israel's president taps Netanyahu's political…
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions