Predictions odds Wars, ceasefires and diplomacy: Russia and Ukraine, Israel, Iran and the Middle East, China and Taiwan, and the world's leaders.
% US Dec
239 open markets · $14.4M traded today
October 31 17% November 2 17% November 3 17% November 4 17% ▼ 93 8 more November 5 17% November 6 17% November 7 17% November 8 17% ▼ 72 November 15 17% ▼ 51 November 22 17% ▼ 40 November 30 17% ▼ 33 December 31 17% ▼ 25
November 5 33% November 6 33% ▲ 1 November 8 33% ▼ 80 November 15 33% ▼ 57 2 more November 30 33% ▼ 39 December 31 33% ▼ 28
October 29 94% October 30 94% October 31 94% ▲ 1 November 1 94% 11 more November 2 94% November 3 94% November 4 94% November 5 94% November 6 94% November 7 94% November 15 94% ▲ 4 November 22 94% ▲ 10 November 30 94% ▲ 11 December 15 94% ▲ 13 December 31 94% ▲ 10
March 31, 2027 57% ▼ 6 June 30, 2027 57% ▼ 4 December 31 57% ▲ 2
Nicolás Maduro 94% Delcy Rodríguez 6% No Head of State <1% Edmundo González <1% 12 more María Corina Machado <1% Marco Rubio <1% Pete Hegseth <1% Diosdado Cabello Rondón <1% Dinorah Figuera <1% Donald Trump <1% Vladimir Padrino López <1% Jorge Rodríguez <1% Evan Pettus <1% Frank Donovan <1% Dan Caine <1% Richard Grenell <1%
March 31 18% ▲ 3 October 31 18% ▼ 2 November 2 18% ▼ 2 November 15 18% ▼ 1 2 more November 30 18% ▼ 5 December 31 38% ▲ 3
October 31 <1% ▼ 1 November 30 3% ▲ 1 December 31 13% ▲ 3
October 31 >99% November 30 >99% ▲ 11 December 31 >99% ▲ 7
December 31, 2026 2% June 30, 2027 9% ▼ 1
June 30, 2027 8% ▼ 1 October 31 8% ▼ 1 November 30 8% December 31 8% ▼ 1
Mojtaba Khamenei 94% ▲ 2 No Head of State 2% Alireza Arafi 2% ▼ 1 Reza Pahlavi 1% 26 more Masoud Pezeshkian 1% Hassan Rouhani <1% Muhammad Mirbaqiri <1% Sadegh Larijani <1% Hassan Khomeini <1% Maryam Rajavi <1% Abbas Araghchi <1% Ahmad Vahidi <1% Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf <1% Hassan Shariatmadari <1% Massoud Rajavi <1% Seyed Hossein Mousavian <1% Reza Pirzadeh <1% Navid Shomali <1% Mustafa Hijri <1% Ali Motahari <1% Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel <1% Mostafa Pourmohammadi <1% Sadegh Mahsouli <1% Saeed Jalili <1% Mahmoud Ahmadinejad <1% Mohammad Khatami <1% Mohsen Araki <1% Nasir Hosseini <1% Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani <1% Ali Asghar Hejazi <1%
October 31 <1% ▼ 2 November 2 1% ▼ 2 November 30 14% ▲ 1 December 31 35%
October 31 <1% December 31 3% ▼ 1
October 31 <1% ▼ 62 December 31 30% ▼ 12
October 31, 2026 <1% ▼ 5 November 30, 2026 21% ▲ 5 December 31, 2026 40% ▲ 1
November 8 17% ▲ 3 November 15 44% ▲ 2 November 22 54% ▲ 3 November 30 63% ▲ 7 1 more
January 31, 2027 25% ▼ 1 February 28, 2027 29% March 31, 2027 36% April 30, 2027 43% ▲ 1 11 more May 31, 2027 44% ▲ 2 June 30, 2027 44% ▲ 2 July 31, 2027 44% ▼ 3 August 31, 2027 44% ▼ 4 September 30, 2027 44% ▼ 2 October 31 44% October 31, 2027 44% November 30, 2027 44% November 30 44% ▲ 1 December 31 44% ▼ 1 December 31, 2027 69%
October 31 <1% November 15 1% November 30 3% ▼ 1 December 31 12% ▲ 1
October 31 <1% December 31 3% Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.
For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.
Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use . How to use Predictions