Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (11/2 - 11/8)
5.92median
211
Median 5.92Middle half 5.34 – 7.07
Install
Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/19 - 10/25)
Settled 5.00A day before, traders had a median of 6.21
The last odds before it closed
5.52median
- ✓ Above 3100%▲ 2
- ✓ Above 495%▲ 2
- Above 583%▼ 4
- Above 620%▼ 42
- Above 711%▼ 7
- Above 83%▼ 2
- Above 91%▼ 2
- Above 101%▼ 1
How the odds have moved
Median: 5.45 on Oct 20, 5.52 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Last odds | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ Above 3 | 100% | 8.6K | ||||
| ✓ Above 4 | 95% | 6.1K | ||||
| ✗ Above 5 | 83% | 7.7K | ||||
| ✗ Above 6 | 20% | 11.9K | ||||
| ✗ Above 7 | 11% | 7.7K | ||||
| ✗ Above 8 | 3% | 30.3K | ||||
| ✗ Above 9 | 1% | 16.7K | ||||
| ✗ Above 10 | 1% | 15.7K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Iran, Strait of Hormuz, Peak
Search ›- Iran conflict intensifies in Strait of Hormuz'The Sunday Panel' breaks down midterm elections, Trump's new appointment in the WH and the ongoing tensions in Iran. Iran conflict intensifies in Strait of Hormuz 'The Sunday Panel' breaks down midterm elections, Trump's new appointment…
- US and Iran Consider $8 Billion Deal to Reopen Strait of HormuzQadir Ak is the founder of Coinpedia. He has over a decade of experience writing about technology and has been covering the blockchain and cryptocurrency space since 2010. He has also interviewed a few prominent experts within the…
- Accepting Iran’s Demands Would Restore Security In Strait Of Hormuz: BaqaeiMian Nadeem Published November 09, 2026 | 03:18 PM In case of aggression by the enemy, a crushing response will be given, and a navigation aid system south of the Strait of Hormuz has been destroyed—the Revolutionary Guards. He said Iran…
- Iran says 7 tankers damaged in Strait of HormuzIran’s state television reported on Thursday that seven oil tankers were either struck by attacks or hit naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz overnight, possibly the largest single-day number of vessels damaged in the waterway since the…
- Iran says navigational systems destroyed in southern Strait of HormuzIranian state media on Monday reported that navigational aid systems in the southern Strait of Hormuz had been destroyed, adding that no unauthorised vessels had crossed the maritime route overnight. The information was attributed to an…
- IRGC Says Tanker Transit Halted in Southern Strait of HormuzNumber of Vendors seeking consent or relying on legitimate interest: 182 These means of processing can be used solely in pursuit of one or several purposes for which you are given a choice in this notice. Number of Vendors seeking consent…
- Iran says no unauthorized vessels transited Strait of Hormuz overnight after navigation aids destroyedIran reports that no unauthorized vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz overnight following the destruction of navigation aids, according to an unnamed Navy official. Iran says no unauthorized vessels transited Strait of Hormuz…
- Iran allows ship carrying fertiliser for SL to pass Strait of HormuzPakistan pace gamble could play into Sri Lanka’s hands Manamperi, Fernando clinch SLTA YETI Hard Courts titles Mahinda reach Under 19 Division I Tier A final Lahiru’s seven-wicket haul guides Christ King to title Tennis world number one…
- Oil prices today: Brent crude, WTI fall as Trump rules out fresh Iran strikes amid Strait of Hormuz concernsOil prices declined on Monday after US President Donald Trump indicated that he was unlikely to order fresh military strikes against Iran as long as talks to end the conflict continued. However, attacks on ships in and around the Strait of…
- Iran Says 'Violating' Oil Tanker Catches Fire After Hitting Naval Mines East Of Strait Of Hormuz | VideoTehran: The navy of Iran's Army announced that a "violating" oil tanker caught fire after hitting naval mines east of the Strait of Hormuz. In a statement on the army's website, the navy said on Sunday the oil tanker had turned off its…
- Strait Of Hormuz Oil Route Gets US Clearance, Iraq Seeks Export Relief After $60 Billion War LossesMumbai: Iraq has reached an understanding with the United States to export crude oil through a designated maritime route near Oman in the Strait of Hormuz, offering potential relief to its energy sector following disruptions caused by the…
- “Strait of Hormuz gives Iran strategic leverage,” says Iranian officialTehran: Secretary of the Expediency Council’s secretariat in Iran Abbas-Ali Kadkhodaei on Sunday underlined that the Strait of Hormuz gives Iran strategic leverage in global affairs. Speaking at a meeting on governance, legislative, and…
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All middle east ›Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (11/9 - 11/15)
5.87median
211
Median 5.87Middle half 5.20 – 6.93
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
17%December 31
- October 3117%
- November 217%
- November 317%
9 more
- November 417%▼ 93
- November 517%
- November 617%
- November 717%
- November 817%▼ 72
- November 1517%▼ 51
- November 2217%▼ 40
- November 3017%▼ 33
- December 3117%▼ 25
US-Iran effective ceasefire continues through...?
33%December 31
- November 533%
- November 633%▲ 1
- November 833%▼ 80
3 more
- November 1533%▼ 57
- November 3033%▼ 39
- December 3133%▼ 28
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
38%December 31
- March 3118%▲ 2
- October 3118%▼ 2
- November 218%▼ 2
3 more
- November 1518%▼ 1
- November 3018%▼ 4
- December 3138%▲ 2
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
94%October 29
- October 2994%
- October 3094%
- October 3194%▲ 1
12 more
- November 194%
- November 294%
- November 394%
- November 494%
- November 594%
- November 694%
- November 794%
- November 1594%▲ 4
- November 2294%▲ 8
- November 3094%▲ 9
- December 1594%▲ 10
- December 3194%▲ 10
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions