CA-23 House winner?

Kalshi Elections › House Closes Nov 3, 2027 · $4.9K today · $135K traded · $69.1K at stake · prices read just now

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The odds

97%Jay Obernolte
  • Jay Obernolte97%
  • Tessa Lynn Hodge3%▼ 1

How the odds have moved

Jay Obernolte: 98% on Oct 20, 97% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Jay Obernolte 97% 97¢ 98¢ $1.03 132.6K
Tessa Lynn Hodge 3% ▼ 1 3¢ 3¢ $35.71 204.7K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: CA- House, Jay Obernolte, Tessa Lynn Hodge

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  • Jay Obernolte’s congressional seat was supposed to be safe. Why is the race so close?San Bernardino Sun · 5 days agoRep. Jay Obernolte, R-Hesperia, has long been a quiet legislative workhorse, known for working across the aisle in Sacramento and then being one of Congress’ leading experts on AI. When California’s congressional districts were redrawn in…
  • Incumbents cruise – with some glaring exceptions – in LA County’s Congressional racesDaily Breeze · 5 days agoThe two outstanding races include District 23, where Republican Rep. Jay Obernolte maintained a slight lead over Democrat Tessa Lynn Hodge in a district that primarily covers the Inland Empire and Kern County but which also includes a…
  • Whitesides wins; mayor to be electedAntelope Valley Press · 5 days agoTwo Congressmen representing the Antelope Valley appear to have cruised to an easy reelection and Palmdale voters approved for a measure to elect a mayor, starting in November 2028, as part of the wide-ranging election Tuesday. The results…
  • CA House Races 2026: Real-Time ResultsAcross California · 6 days agoLOS ANGELES, CA — The polls have closed, and the results of California's 52 Congressional races will soon begin rolling in even as it's already clear that voters nationwide have handed control of the U.S. House of Representatives to…
  • November 2026 Election Early ResultsThe Desert Trumpet · 6 days agoIn the Morongo Basin, school board, city council, and water district seats were on the ballot, along with a sales tax measure in Twentynine Palms (Measure G), which appears that it will pass. Measure I, an existing county-wide half-cent…
  • Election results: LA County’s congressional racesDaily Breeze · 6 days agoVoting has ended for the Nov. 3 general election, and although it will take a while for enough ballots to be counted for the outcomes of some races to be determined, one thing we do know is that there will be at least two new faces joining…
  • CA House Races To Watch: The Blue Wave And Election InterferenceAcross California · 7 days agoLOS ANGELES, CA — Heading into Election Day Tuesday, the most heated battles in California's 52 Congressional districts are taking place in courtrooms where the Trump Administration is sandbagging ahead of the coming blue wave. The…
  • Trump backlash has turned California bluer than ever — but there’s a glimmer of hope for RepublicansCalifornia Post · 5 days agoTuesday’s blue wave hit California hard, sweeping away Republican candidates, congressional seats, and hopes of making gains. Already a heavily Democratic state, California is delivering to Republicans another ugly election. My take? This…
  • Democrats plan a wave of AI and data-center bills when they take Congress in January 2027Crypto Briefing · 4 days agoBills on electricity costs, independent AI testing and corporate liability would mark a sharp turn from the Republican-led Congress Democrats are preparing to introduce a long list of artificial intelligence bills once they take control of…
  • Fontana mayor leading in reelection bidSan Bernardino Sun · 5 days agoSan Bernardino Sun Fontana Mayor Acquanetta Warren was leading in her bid for reelection after Tuesday’s General Election, results posted Wednesday by the San Bernardino County Registrar of Voters showed. Warren led a field of seven…
  • Tech policy coalition calls for new Congress to set AI safety standardsNextgov.com · 4 days agoThe Chamber of Progress, a center-left tech industry policy coalition, is calling on the 2027 Democratic Congress to establish federal artificial intelligence safety standards. In a Nov. 4 memo to House and Senate Democratic leadership…
  • Way, Way Too Big to StealLiberal Currents · 5 days agoWhat were the most exciting moments of the blue wave? GOP circles Hegseth as Congress stirs to life. Up to the very last minute on Tuesday, news was breaking about various attempts by Donald Trump’s DOJ to interfere in the election. Glenn…

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions