Iowa ethanol production in 2026

Kalshi Economy Closes Jan 31, 2027 · $85.2K traded · $16.9K at stake · prices read 16 min ago

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The odds

4.59median

4.205.10

Median 4.59Middle half 4.53 – 4.66

How the odds have moved

Median: 4.60 on Oct 20, 4.59 now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Above 4.3 billion gallons	98%	97¢	98¢	$1.02	42.0K
Above 4.4 billion gallons	96%	95¢	96¢	$1.04	26.1K
Above 4.5 billion gallons	88%	87¢	88¢	$1.14	15.5K
Above 4.6 billion gallons	45%	43¢	46¢	$2.17	5.2K
Above 4.7 billion gallons	10%	9¢	10¢	$10.00	14.3K
Above 4.8 billion gallons	6%	5¢	6¢	$16.67	21.2K
Above 4.9 billion gallons	5%	4¢	5¢	$20.00	16.1K
Above 5.0 billion gallons	4%	3¢	4¢	$25.00	4.9K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Iowa

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Iowa 2026 election resultsCNN · 7 days agoCNN Iowa 2026 election results Live results: Iowa Senate Follow live results in the Iowa Senate race, county by county, as votes are counted on election night. Senate results by county Live results: Iowa Governor Follow live results in the…
Can Iowa Keep Momentum at Northwestern?Yahoo Sports · 7 days agoWell, that's more like it. One week after handing away the pig in Minneapolis, the Hawkeyes took out every ounce of frustration on #25 Wisconsin in a 30-0 shutout that kept the Heartland Trophy in Iowa City for a fifth straight year. The…
Election Day 2026: The view from IowaNPR · 6 days agoNPR Election Day 2026: The view from Iowa Iowa has become an unexpected state to watch this midterm election. NPR does not offer or accept money for coverage or interviews. Become an NPR sponsor
Iowa Women win opener 73-45Yahoo Sports · 7 days agoThe Iowa Women’s Basketball team defeated Towson 73-45 in their season opener on November 2, 2026. Iowa has now won their last 27 season openers after the 28 point win. Head Coach Jan Jensen has now won 51 games as the Iowa Head Coach…
Gusty winds, tornado threat from Louisiana to IowaThe Weather Channel · 7 days agoThe Weather Channel Severe storms and heavy rain for the Mississippi River Valley Our cross-country storm continues to shift to the east and now targets the Mississippi River Valley. Storms bringing gusty winds and perhaps a tornado could…
High costs and Iran war shape Iowa's electionBBC · 7 days agoBBC High costs and Iran war shape Iowa's election
Iowa Governor Midterm Election 2026: Live ResultsNBC News · 7 days agoState Auditor Rob Sand is the Democratic nominee against Republican Zach Lahn, who pulled off a major upset against Trump-backed Rep. Randy Feenstra, R-Iowa, in the GOP primary earlier this year. Sand is Iowa’s lone statewide elected…
High costs hit Iowa farmers as Democrats target the stateBBC · 6 days agoBBC High costs hit Iowa farmers as Democrats target the state Read more about the US midterm elections here.
Iowa U.S. Senate Election Live Results 2026AP News · 7 days agoAP News Iowa U.S. Senate results AP's guide to this race When the nation waits for results, who do you trust? For 178 years, AP has been the steady voice America turns to on election night. Our reporters, election analysts and graphics…
Buttigieg dogged by low black support in Iowa homestretchPOLITICO · 7 days agoHis campaign faced questions Tuesday about how it has handled complaints from people of color on his staff. Buttigieg dogged by low black support in Iowa homestretch His campaign faced questions Tuesday about how it has handled complaints…
3 Biggest Iowa State Basketball Concerns From Memphis LossYahoo Sports · 7 days agoThe Iowa State Cyclones suffered a surprising and disappointing defeat in their season opener against the Memphis Tigers at the Sanford Pentagon, losing 80-76. There is certainly no reason to panic after one game against one of the better…
Iowa Football Bowl Projections: Hawkeyes Forcing the CFP ConversationIowa Hawkeyes On SI · 7 days agoThe Iowa Hawkeyes, unsurprisingly, aren't going to go away quietly or without a fight. After a very impressive showing against Wisconsin to move to 6-2 on the year, Iowa has returned to the fringes of the College Football Playoff…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onIowa Renewable Fuels Association

Trading closesJan 31, 2027 9:59 AM ET

Traded$85.2K (145,420 contracts)

This week$137

At stake$16.9K

In the news96 headlines today, 2,303 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If IRFA reports that Iowa ethanol production for calendar year 2026 is above 4.3 billion gallons, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions