Alabama's 1st District margin of victory
49%Carl, 24+ pts
2160
Install
Arkansas's 4th District margin of victory
The odds
36.4median
2142
Median 36.4
How the odds have moved
Median: 37.5 on Oct 20, 36.4 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Westerman, 24+ pts | 97% | 1¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 182 | |
| Westerman, 27+ pts | 91% | 1¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 294 | |
| Westerman, 30+ pts | 84% | 3¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 585 | |
| Westerman, 33+ pts | 70% | $1.43 | 570 | |||
| Westerman, 36+ pts | 53% | $1.89 | 714 | |||
| Westerman, 39+ pts | 30% | $3.33 | 551 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Arkansas
Search ›- Arkansas Explained: What is the legislative ‘supermajority’?Arkansas Democrats didn't claim any statewide or federal victories in last week's midterm election, but they made gains in the state Legislature that could have major implications. The party won 10 seats in the state House and flipped…
- Rare Shih Tzu-pit bull mix puppy from Arkansas is ready for adoptionThe Bond Between says he is one of five puppies of the unusual mix that came from Arkansas. The rescue is testing him next week because he may be vision- and hearing-impaired, but he’s romping and chewing like a normal puppy. Rare Shih…
- Arkansas’ Next Civil Rights Crisis: The Hunt DecreeThirty-five years later, Arkansas Attorney General Tim Griffin wants to terminate that agreement. On November 5, 2026, barely 48 hours after a Democratic electoral wave swept across much of America, Griffin announced a federal motion to…
- Judge allows lawsuit challenging Arkansas abortion ban to move forwardA Pulaski County circuit judge on Monday denied the Arkansas attorney general's motion to dismiss a lawsuit challenging the state's abortion ban, allowing the suit to move forward against Attorney General Tim Griffin, members of the…
- Arkansas GOP Senators Poised to Sink Trump Appeals Court NomineeArkansas’ senators are said to be blocking the nomination of Lee Rudofsky to the US Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit — potentially one of President Donald Trump’s final circuit court picks before Democrats take control of the…
- Arkansas judge says lawsuit challenging state’s abortion ban can go forwardA Pulaski County judge ruled Friday that the lawsuit seeking to overturn Arkansas' near-total abortion ban can continue. Circuit Judge Cara Connors granted motions to dismiss Republican Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders and the state of Arkansas…
- Arkansas Democrats weighing options for newfound leverage in state HouseAfter Tuesday's election, Arkansas Democrats are touting something they have long sought but haven't had in a decade -- leverage. That is because Democrats flipped 10 seats in the state House of Representatives, bringing their total to 30…
- David Stults appointed to state board commission by Arkansas GovernorTwo area men have named to a state board and commission by Arkansas Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders. Mountain Home’s David Stults has been appointed to the Arkansas 911 Board. Stults, who is the Baxter County Office of Emergency Management…
- Arkansas governor proposes spending hikes for Medicaid, SNAP, school vouchers in $7B budgetArkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders unveiled her nearly $7 billion state budget for the coming fiscal year Friday, promising a fifth round of income tax cuts if the Legislature approves her proposal. New spending items include $70 million…
- Arkansas Advocate: Sanders proposes spending hikes for Medicaid, SNAP, school vouchers in $7B budgetBy TESS VRBIN | Arkansas Advocate Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders unveiled her nearly $7 billion state budget for the coming fiscal year, promising a fifth round of income tax cuts if the Legislature approves her proposal. New…
- Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders gets basic information about her state wrong during The View interviewThe Republican politician incorrectly stated that her state’s minimum wage was $15 per hour — an amount she even campaigned to raise the number to in the past. Though Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders mounted a victory for her party by…
- Arkansas's top news stories | November 7, 2026Lauren Adams delivers Arkansas's top news stories for November 7, 2026, including the second annual Parkinsonism walk held at the Little Rock Zoo. President Trump on Sunday said the U.S. "took a giant step back in history" as his White…
Related markets
All elections ›Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory
6.45median
-132
Median 6.45Middle half 5.52 – 7.38
Alabama's 5th District margin of victory
7%Strong, 10+ pts
737
Alabama's 6th District margin of victory
48%Palmer, 18+ pts
1548
Alabama's 7th District margin of victory
32.6median
948
Median 32.6Middle half 30.3 – 36
Arkansas's 1st District margin of victory
37.4median
2451
Median 37.4Middle half 33.9 – 45.9
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions