Arizona's 4th District margin of victory

Kalshi Elections Closes Nov 3, 2027 · $6.6K traded · $2.3K at stake · prices read 85 min ago

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The odds

19.2median
131
Median 19.2Middle half 16.9 – 24.3

How the odds have moved

Median: 19.2 on Oct 20, 19.2 now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Stanton, 4+ pts 91% 0¢ 97¢ $1.03 2.2K
Stanton, 7+ pts 90% 1¢ 99¢ 55.00
Stanton, 10+ pts 85% 3¢ 100¢ 173
Stanton, 13+ pts 85% 0¢ 99¢ 536
Stanton, 16+ pts 85% 8¢ 98¢ $1.02 2.2K
Stanton, 19+ pts 51% 99¢ $1.01 1.4K
Stanton, 22+ pts 37% 98¢ $1.03 1.3K
Stanton, 25+ pts 21% 2¢ 99¢ $1.01 3.8K
Stanton, 28+ pts 8% 30¢ $3.33 1.6K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Arizona

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  • Arizona Republican holds House seat, surviving re-election scareFox News · 6 h agoChief congressional correspondent Chad Pergram joins 'Fox Report’ to discuss how the newest members of Congress descended on Capitol Hill today. Pergram says new members outlined their legislative priorities such as agricultural economy…
  • Arizona Governor Election Live Results 2026AP News · 3 days agoAP News AP's guide to this race When the nation waits for results, who do you trust? For 178 years, AP has been the steady voice America turns to on election night. Our reporters, election analysts and graphics journalists simply tell you…
  • Arizona Secretary of State Election Live Results 2026AP News · 3 days agoAP News Arizona Secretary of State results When the nation waits for results, who do you trust? For 178 years, AP has been the steady voice America turns to on election night. Our reporters, election analysts and graphics journalists…
  • Who Is Sebastian Matta? Teen Wins Clerk Race in Arizona as Democrats SurgeNewsweek · 3 days agoNov 06, 2026 at 07:55 PM EST Nov 06, 2026 at 09:29 PM EST A 19-year-old college student who plays video games with friends, listens to 1950s doo-wop music and lives with his parents is preparing to lead a county office with hundreds of…
  • 🎧 Vietnam-Era Huey Saving Lives in ArizonaThe Epoch Times · 17 h ago🎧 Nasdaq Plunges Into Correction Territory 🎧 The Biggest Shifts This Midterm 🎧 Democrats Take Congress
  • Democrats score trifecta in Arizona@arkansasonline · 42 h agoPHOENIX -- Democrats in Arizona won control of both legislative chambers and retained the governor's office, giving the party its first trifecta in the state since 1966 as Democrats made major gains nationwide in Tuesday's elections and…
  • Republican Crane narrowly defeats Democrat Nez in Arizona’s CD2KJZZ · 5 h agoRepublican Eli Crane narrowly defeated Democratic challenger Jonathan Nez in Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District, a district that President Donald Trump carried by 15 points in 2024. With the race call, the future balance of power in…
  • Warm and dry week across Arizona before a cooler, unsettled weekendYahoo News · 16 h agoHigh pressure builds in this week, keeping things dry across Arizona. Look for abundant sunshine and Valley highs in the mid 80s each day through Thursday. The disgraced entertainer was sentenced on Monday following a four-week trial at…
  • Arizona voters approve Prop. 141, a ban on vehicle mileage taxesKJZZ · 5 h agoProp. 141 prohibits the state from imposing taxes or fees on Arizona drivers based on the number of miles they drive. It also bans the state from adopting rules to track or limit the number of miles driven. Arizona voters approve Prop…
  • Arizona Democrats Have a Trifecta. Gun Control Groups Have a Wish List.bearingarms.com · 11 h agoDemocrats in Arizona have taken complete control of the state government for the first time in 60 years, and gun control groups are already salivating at the prospect of turning back the clock on the right to keep and bear arms. We saw a…
  • GOP Rep. Eli Crane narrowly wins reelection to U.S House in Arizona@azfamily · 7 h agoCrane will keep his seat in Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District, surviving a challenge from Democratic challenger Jonathan Nez. GOP Rep. Eli Crane narrowly wins reelection to U.S House in Arizona Driver dies after crashing into block…
  • Arizona Democrats select leadership teams after taking control of state House, SenateKTAR.com · 9 h agoWatch: Historic shift: Priya Sundareshan on Democrats taking control of Arizona Legislature | 11 mins Arizona Democrats ushered in a new era Friday by selecting their leadership teams after winning control of both chambers of the state…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions