Alabama's 1st District margin of victory
49%Carl, 24+ pts
2160
Install
Arizona's 5th District margin of victory
The odds
2.85median
-129
Median 2.85
How the odds have moved
Median: 10.5 on Oct 19, 2.85 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamb, 2+ pts | 63% | 1¢ | 100¢ | 1.4K | ||
| Lamb, 5+ pts | 17% | 29¢ | $3.45 | 4.4K | ||
| Lamb, 8+ pts | 4% | 7¢ | $14.08 | 2.4K | ||
| Lamb, 11+ pts | 3% | 0¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | 1.6K | |
| Lamb, 14+ pts | 3% | 29¢ | $3.45 | 560 | ||
| Lamb, 17+ pts | 3% | $39.22 | 630 | |||
| Lamb, 20+ pts | 3% | 29¢ | $3.45 | 1.3K | ||
| Lamb, 23+ pts | 2% | 0¢ | 17¢ | $5.88 | 2.1K | |
| Lamb, 26+ pts | 1% | ▼ 4 | 20¢ | $5.00 | 873 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Arizona
Search ›- Arizona Republican holds House seat, surviving re-election scareChief congressional correspondent Chad Pergram joins 'Fox Report’ to discuss how the newest members of Congress descended on Capitol Hill today. Pergram says new members outlined their legislative priorities such as agricultural economy…
- Arizona Governor Election Live Results 2026AP News AP's guide to this race When the nation waits for results, who do you trust? For 178 years, AP has been the steady voice America turns to on election night. Our reporters, election analysts and graphics journalists simply tell you…
- Arizona Secretary of State Election Live Results 2026AP News Arizona Secretary of State results When the nation waits for results, who do you trust? For 178 years, AP has been the steady voice America turns to on election night. Our reporters, election analysts and graphics journalists…
- Who Is Sebastian Matta? Teen Wins Clerk Race in Arizona as Democrats SurgeNov 06, 2026 at 07:55 PM EST Nov 06, 2026 at 09:29 PM EST A 19-year-old college student who plays video games with friends, listens to 1950s doo-wop music and lives with his parents is preparing to lead a county office with hundreds of…
- 🎧 Vietnam-Era Huey Saving Lives in Arizona🎧 Nasdaq Plunges Into Correction Territory 🎧 The Biggest Shifts This Midterm 🎧 Democrats Take Congress
- Democrats score trifecta in ArizonaPHOENIX -- Democrats in Arizona won control of both legislative chambers and retained the governor's office, giving the party its first trifecta in the state since 1966 as Democrats made major gains nationwide in Tuesday's elections and…
- Republican Crane narrowly defeats Democrat Nez in Arizona’s CD2Republican Eli Crane narrowly defeated Democratic challenger Jonathan Nez in Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District, a district that President Donald Trump carried by 15 points in 2024. With the race call, the future balance of power in…
- Warm and dry week across Arizona before a cooler, unsettled weekendHigh pressure builds in this week, keeping things dry across Arizona. Look for abundant sunshine and Valley highs in the mid 80s each day through Thursday. The disgraced entertainer was sentenced on Monday following a four-week trial at…
- Arizona voters approve Prop. 141, a ban on vehicle mileage taxesProp. 141 prohibits the state from imposing taxes or fees on Arizona drivers based on the number of miles they drive. It also bans the state from adopting rules to track or limit the number of miles driven. Arizona voters approve Prop…
- Arizona Democrats Have a Trifecta. Gun Control Groups Have a Wish List.Democrats in Arizona have taken complete control of the state government for the first time in 60 years, and gun control groups are already salivating at the prospect of turning back the clock on the right to keep and bear arms. We saw a…
- GOP Rep. Eli Crane narrowly wins reelection to U.S House in ArizonaCrane will keep his seat in Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District, surviving a challenge from Democratic challenger Jonathan Nez. GOP Rep. Eli Crane narrowly wins reelection to U.S House in Arizona Driver dies after crashing into block…
- Arizona Democrats select leadership teams after taking control of state House, SenateWatch: Historic shift: Priya Sundareshan on Democrats taking control of Arizona Legislature | 11 mins Arizona Democrats ushered in a new era Friday by selecting their leadership teams after winning control of both chambers of the state…
Related markets
All elections ›Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory
6.45median
-132
Median 6.45Middle half 5.52 – 7.38
Alabama's 5th District margin of victory
7%Strong, 10+ pts
737
Alabama's 6th District margin of victory
48%Palmer, 18+ pts
1548
Alabama's 7th District margin of victory
32.6median
948
Median 32.6Middle half 30.3 – 36
Arkansas's 1st District margin of victory
37.4median
2451
Median 37.4Middle half 33.9 – 45.9
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions