Idaho's 1st District margin of victory

Kalshi Elections Closes Nov 3, 2027 · $3K traded · $2K at stake · prices read 3 h ago

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The odds

34.7median
2151
Median 34.7Middle half 32.3 – 42.5

How the odds have moved

Median: 34.3 on Oct 19, 34.7 now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Fulcher, 24+ pts 94% 82¢ 99¢ $1.01 550
Fulcher, 27+ pts 94% 93¢ 99¢ $1.01 869
Fulcher, 30+ pts 94% 95¢ 99¢ $1.01 1.4K
Fulcher, 33+ pts 69% 22¢ $1.45 221
Fulcher, 36+ pts 36% $2.78 210
Fulcher, 39+ pts 28% $3.57 29.00
Fulcher, 42+ pts 28% $3.57 23.00
Fulcher, 45+ pts 11% $9.17 469
Fulcher, 48+ pts 11% 25¢ $4.00 464

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Idaho

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  • Idaho Attorney General Election Live Results 2026AP News · 3 days agoAP News Idaho Attorney General results When the nation waits for results, who do you trust? For 178 years, AP has been the steady voice America turns to on election night. Our reporters, election analysts and graphics journalists simply…
  • Exclusive: ICE Agents Arrest MS-13 Associate in Small, Rural Idaho TownBreitbart · 10 h agoImmigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has arrested an illegal alien associate of the MS-13 gang in the small, rural town of Victor, Idaho, which has a population of just about 3,000, Breitbart News has learned. On November 5, ICE…
  • Idaho Democrats Flip District 26 House SeatsHoodline · 12 h agoStatewide certification of the results is still weeks away. The Idaho Capital Sun reported that nothing becomes official until the Idaho State Board of Canvassers certifies the vote on Nov. 24, a reminder that the numbers circulating now…
  • Idaho voters defeat abortion ballot initiative after Latter-day Saint, Catholic donationsDeseret News · 10 h agoFollowing a flood of campaign ads, Idaho voters rejected a ballot initiative that would have established a right to abortion in the state. Heavy opposition from Catholics and The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints contributed to…
  • Idaho Legislature’s budget committee meets in Moscow, Lewiston this weekYahoo News · 27 h agoMembers of the Idaho Legislature's joint budget committee are meeting in Moscow and Lewiston for three days this week as they gear up for the 2027 legislative session. Although the Idaho Legislature is not in session, the Joint…
  • The nation saw a blue wave this election. Idaho saw a ripple.Yahoo News · 27 h agoIn Idaho, a Republican stronghold, the closest Democrat in this year's election to securing a seat in Congress or statewide office was 11 points behind. The candidate, Ellie Gilbreath, was trying to stop Republican U.S. Rep. Mike Simpson's…
  • Idaho’s abortion bans remain intact after Prop 1’s defeat. Idahoans respond with relief, dismayPost Register · 9 h agoA sign opposing Proposition 1 to expand abortion access is displayed on Tuesday, Oct. 13, 2026, in Twin Falls, Idaho. The failure of Idaho’s proposed abortion rights initiative Proposition 1 in Tuesday’s general election was met with…
  • Idaho Votes For Model 1873 Winchester As State Gun — What Would Wyoming Choose?Cowboy State Daily · 37 h agoIdaho became the 12th state to approve an official state gun last week. Wyoming has yet to do so but Bob Budd says the Model 1894 Winchester rifle might be a good fit. "You can’t find an old Wyoming family that doesn’t have at least one,”…
  • Idaho U.S. House Election Live Results 2026AP News · 5 days agoAP News Idaho U.S. House results: AP's guide to this race When the nation waits for results, who do you trust? For 178 years, AP has been the steady voice America turns to on election night. Our reporters, election analysts and graphics…
  • Op-Ed: Idaho Stands StrongConservative Firing Line · 3 days agoGuest post by Dorothy Moon, Idaho GOP Chairwoman First, the good news: Idaho voters rejected Proposition 1 by a margin of 56% to 44%, which means preborn babies will still be protected in Idaho. Thank you! Despite a nationwide blue wave…
  • Idaho Secretary of State Election Live Results 2026AP News · 5 days agoAP News Idaho Secretary of State results When the nation waits for results, who do you trust? For 178 years, AP has been the steady voice America turns to on election night. Our reporters, election analysts and graphics journalists simply…
  • Politics may shape migration to Idaho — but it’s not the whole storyIdaho Press · 2 days agoDemocrats among arrivals from other states. But housing costs, job growth, Micron’s expansion and other economic factors are also shaping who comes, who leaves and how quickly the Treasure Valley continues to grow. Learn what migration…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions