Alabama's 1st District margin of victory
49%Carl, 24+ pts
2160
Install
Illinois's 13th District margin of victory
The odds
67%Budzinski, 18+ pts
636
How the odds have moved
Budzinski, 9+ pts: 92% on Oct 20, 95% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Why it moved
- Nov 4, 1 PM ETBudzinski, 9+ pts: 87% → 63%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budzinski, 9+ pts | 95% | 1¢ | 100¢ | 1.4K | ||
| Budzinski, 12+ pts | 95% | 6¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 66.00 | |
| Budzinski, 15+ pts | 82% | 99¢ | $1.01 | 50.00 | ||
| Budzinski, 18+ pts | 67% | 99¢ | $1.01 | 250 | ||
| Budzinski, 21+ pts | 67% | 99¢ | $1.01 | 59.00 | ||
| Budzinski, 24+ pts | 67% | 99¢ | $1.01 | 115 | ||
| Budzinski, 30+ pts | 67% | 2¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | 121 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Illinois
Search ›- Illinois House District 6 Midterm Election 2026: Live ResultsThe Illinois House District 6 race has shifted 20 points toward Democrats compared with the 2024 presidential election. See the county-by-county breakdown below. Shift to Democrats Shift to ... After a historic wave of Democratic victories…
- Pritzker appeals FEMA’s decision to deny Illinois disaster aidSPRINGFIELD — Gov. JB Pritzker appealed the Trump administration’s decision to deny Illinois’ request for federal disaster relief on Thursday. The Federal Emergency Management Agency denied Illinois’ request last month without explanation…
- Illinois voters pass proposals objecting to state anti-BDS lawHELP SUPPORT JEWISH JOURNAL (JTA) — Voters in eight municipalities in Illinois approved ballot measures last week registering formal objections to the state’s law barring state pension investments in companies that boycott Israel. The…
- Voters in 8 Illinois communities back repeal of anti-BDS lawVoters in eight Illinois communities back nonbinding measures opposing the state's anti-BDS law, despite objections from local Jewish organizations. Voters in 8 Illinois communities back repeal of anti-BDS law
- Capitol News Illinois | Pritzker appeals FEMA’s decision to deny Illinois disaster aidGov. J.B. Pritzker, right, and U.S. Sen.-elect Juliana Stratton, Illinois’ current lieutenant governor, listen to a speaker Wednesday at a news conference in Chicago. SPRINGFIELD — Gov. J.B. Pritzker appealed the Trump administration’s…
- Trump’s DOJ Will Participate in Oral Arguments in Illinois Semi-Auto Ban CasePlease stay tuned to www.nraila.org for future updates on NRA-ILA’s defense of your constitutional rights, and visit www.nraila.org/litigation to keep current on NRA-ILA’s litigation activities. Just hours after Election Day, anti-gun…
- Illinois House Speaker Emanuel "Chris" Welch will step down from leadership postCBS News Chicago is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as WBBM-TV and CBS2, CBS News Chicago offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Illinois House Speaker…
- Illinois GOP chair says better messaging needed to win back voters: ‘Suburban cocktail party language’Bob Grogan was only a 6-year-old kindergartner at the height of the 1974 Watergate midterm elections. But it’s the closest comparison the self-described student of history could find for the electoral defeat Republicans had up and down the…
- Budzinski Wins Illinois 13th Congressional District 2026Illinois' 13th Congressional District stretches across portions of seven counties: Champaign, Macon, Macoupin, Madison, Piatt, St. Clair, and Sangamon. The Tribune's reporting on how the district voted frames the race within that wide…
- Illinois voters pass proposals formally objecting to state anti-BDS lawVoters in eight municipalities in Illinois approved ballot measures last week, registering formal objections to the state’s law barring state pension investments in companies that boycott Israel. The ballot measures will have no effect on…
- Gov. JB Pritzker appeals FEMA's decision to deny Illinois disaster aidSPRINGFIELD â Gov. JB Pritzker appealed the Trump administrationâs decision to deny Illinoisâ request for federal disaster relief on Thursday. Severe flooding from rain in early June damaged 2800 East road in Vermilion County…
- Pritzker Wins Third Term as Illinois Democrats Sweep Senate, Five House SeatsIllinois Democrats had a commanding night at the polls, with JB Pritzker winning a third term as governor and Juliana Stratton capturing the state's open U.S. Senate seat. Down the ballot, Democrats also won all five U.S. House seats that…
Related markets
All elections ›Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory
6.45median
-132
Median 6.45Middle half 5.52 – 7.38
Alabama's 5th District margin of victory
7%Strong, 10+ pts
737
Alabama's 6th District margin of victory
48%Palmer, 18+ pts
1548
Alabama's 7th District margin of victory
32.6median
948
Median 32.6Middle half 30.3 – 36
Arkansas's 1st District margin of victory
37.4median
2451
Median 37.4Middle half 33.9 – 45.9
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions