Alabama's 1st District margin of victory
49%Carl, 24+ pts
2160
Install
Louisiana's 5th District margin of victory
The odds
31.7median
1572
Median 31.7
How the odds have moved
Median: 31.9 on Oct 20, 31.7 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republicans, 18+ pts | 94% | 94¢ | $1.07 | 910 | ||
| Republicans, 21+ pts | 88% | 0¢ | 94¢ | $1.07 | 1.4K | |
| Republicans, 24+ pts | 74% | 1¢ | 94¢ | $1.07 | 1.3K | |
| Republicans, 27+ pts | 72% | 94¢ | $1.07 | 351 | ||
| Republicans, 30+ pts | 66% | 94¢ | $1.07 | 1.8K | ||
| Republicans, 33+ pts | 38% | 94¢ | $1.07 | 1.5K | ||
| Republicans, 36+ pts | 38% | 94¢ | $1.07 | 2.5K | ||
| Republicans, 39+ pts | 38% | 94¢ | $1.07 | 3.7K | ||
| Republicans, 42+ pts | 34% | 93¢ | $1.08 | 7.1K | ||
| Republicans, 45+ pts | 34% | 1¢ | 94¢ | $1.07 | 722 | |
| Republicans, 48+ pts | 34% | 94¢ | $1.07 | 530 | ||
| Republicans, 51+ pts | 34% | 94¢ | $1.07 | 1.6K | ||
| Republicans, 54+ pts | 34% | 94¢ | $1.07 | 174 | ||
| Republicans, 63+ pts | 34% | 94¢ | $1.07 | 1.8K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Louisiana
Search ›- Stephen Miller is a 'great choice' for White House chief of staff: Louisiana governorLouisiana Gov. Jeff Landry discusses Susie Wiles stepping down as White House chief of staff and being replaced by White House deputy chief of staff for policy Stephen Miller on 'America Reports.' ... Stephen Miller is a 'great choice' for…
- Louisiana Republicans confront voter frustration after midterm losses(The Center Square) — Louisiana Republicans are questioning President Donald Trump’s handling of the conflict with Iran, immigration enforcement and the rising cost of living after a Democratic midterm wave nearly cost the GOP a U.S…
- For runoffs, Louisiana voters selected Democrats with conservative records on social issuesLouisiana Democrats have promised to capitalize on the surprisingly strong showing for their candidate, Jamie Davis, in the U.S. Senate election during the governor's race in 2027. But the party still has two Congressional races left to…
- Louisiana groups sue Public Service Commission over fast-track approval for Meta power projectsThe action comes as state regulators prepare for expedited consideration of a power buildout linked to Meta’s massive $50 billion Hyperion data center campus in Richland Parish. The petition, submitted to a state district court in Baton…
- Republican Blake Miguez advances to the general election for U.S. House in Louisiana's 6th Congressional DistrictThere was a problem reporting this. Keep it Clean. Please avoid obscene, vulgar, lewd, racist or sexually-oriented language. - Stephen Miller replaces Susie Wiles as Trump's White House chief of staff after GOP's midterm defeat - Trump…
- Democrat Chauna Banks advances to the general election for U.S. House in Louisiana's 6th Congressional DistrictWant to Share Something with Our Team? - What we know â and what we don't â as Nvidia investigates an alleged spy plot involving its CEO - Democrat Chauna Banks advances to the general election for U.S. House in Louisiana's 6th…
- New lawsuit targets Louisiana’s fast-track process for data centers as Jeff Landry defends themA group of advocacy organizations filed a lawsuit Monday seeking to undo a rule that fast-tracked approval for billions of dollars in electric infrastructure for Meta’s massive data center in north Louisiana, a move that could stymie…
- Trump push to build pipelines is playing out in Louisiana. Is wetlands damage being downplayed?Natural gas pipeline markers stand near near the entrance to the Peveto Woods Bird and Butterfly Sanctuary Wednesday, August 12, 2026, on Hwy. 82 in Cameron Parish. RBN Energy's Louisiana/Texas gas pipelines map. A Momentum natural gas…
- Melania Trump Appears to be Loudly Booed at Louisiana Football GameThe first lady's stadium appearance sparks controversy after videos capture an unexpected reaction. Posted by C0RI0LANUS at 05:31 PM | 3 COMMENTS | permalink | Comment on This Entry | America's "Worst Couple": Melanoma and Dirtbag Trumpf…
- Stephanie Grace: Troy Carter is about to become Louisiana’s indispensible member of CongressU.S. Rep. Troy A. Carter Sr., D-New Orleans, arrives in New Orleans watch party on November 3, 2026. He won reelection with 80% of the vote and will seek to chair the Congressional Black Caucus. For the last three years, Louisiana has sent…
- What happened to recall petition against Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry?A petition to recall Louisiana Republican Gov. Jeff Landry has flopped after the organizers failed to secured the required number of signatures to trigger an election. The deadline to turn in the required number of signatures - about…
- Parents Say Kindergartner Was Removed From Louisiana School Over Their Same-Sex MarriageA kindergartner was reportedly removed from a school in Louisiana because of the so-called “lifestyle choices” of her adoptive parents Emily and Jennie Parker. The Parkers were two days away from taking their 5-year-old daughter Zoey to…
Related markets
All elections ›Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory
6.45median
-132
Median 6.45Middle half 5.52 – 7.38
Alabama's 5th District margin of victory
7%Strong, 10+ pts
737
Alabama's 6th District margin of victory
48%Palmer, 18+ pts
1548
Alabama's 7th District margin of victory
32.6median
948
Median 32.6Middle half 30.3 – 36
Arkansas's 1st District margin of victory
37.4median
2451
Median 37.4Middle half 33.9 – 45.9
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions