Montana's 2nd District margin of victory

Kalshi Elections Closes Nov 3, 2027 · $1.3K traded · $484 at stake · prices read 55 min ago

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The odds

23.5median
1040
Median 23.5Middle half 19.8 – 31

How the odds have moved

Median: 25.1 on Oct 20, 23.5 now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Downing, 13+ pts 96% 68¢ 99¢ $1.01 141
Downing, 16+ pts 83% $1.20 830
Downing, 19+ pts 80% $1.25 99.00
Downing, 25+ pts 40% $2.50 284
Downing, 28+ pts 25% $4.00 200
Downing, 31+ pts 25% $4.00 246
Downing, 34+ pts 11% 2¢ $9.09 206
Downing, 37+ pts 7% 25¢ $4.00 1.7K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Montana

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  • Montana U.S. House Election Live Results 2026AP News · 3 days agoAP News Montana U.S. House results: AP's guide to this race When the nation waits for results, who do you trust? For 178 years, AP has been the steady voice America turns to on election night. Our reporters, election analysts and graphics…
  • Montana U.S. Senate Election Live Results 2026AP News · 4 days agoAP News Montana U.S. Senate results AP's guide to this race When the nation waits for results, who do you trust? For 178 years, AP has been the steady voice America turns to on election night. Our reporters, election analysts and graphics…
  • Montana Lottery Big Sky Bonus results for Nov. 8, 2026Yahoo News · 34 h agoHere's a look at Nov. 8, 2026, results for each game: Lucky For Life: 8:38 p.m. MT daily. Big Sky Bonus: 7:30 p.m. MT daily. Powerball Double Play: 8:59 p.m. MT on Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday. Montana Cash: 8 p.m. MT on Wednesday and…
  • Montana votes to ban corporate political money. Next stop? Probably the Supreme CourtCNBC · 4 days agoImagine a corporation wants to spend $10 million to defeat a political candidate. Under the Supreme Court's landmark 2010 Citizens United ruling, it can spend as much as it wants provided it doesn't coordinate with the candidate's…
  • BLM and State of Montana Expand Good Neighbor Partnership to Boost Forest Health, Community Wildfire ResilienceBureau of Land Management · 7 h ago< All Press Releases BILLINGS, Mont. — The Bureau of Land Management Montana/Dakotas, Governor Greg Gianforte, and the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation announced a strengthened Good Neighbor Authority partnership…
  • For the arts in Bozeman and Montana, the time is nowBozeman Daily Chronicle · 3 days agoThe deadline for submitting letters to the editor or guest columns related to the midterm elections has passed. Election-related content submitted from now until Nov. 3 will not be run. Bozeman is a special place with an abundance of…
  • Visualizing Montana’s midterm electionDaily Montanan · 3 days agoVoters swing left in the state’s second-largest midterm election ever Voting booths set up in Polson at the Lake County Elections Office on Nov. 3, 2026. (Micah Drew/Daily Montanan) ELECTION NEWS AROUND THE COUNTRY by Micah Drew, Daily…
  • Big win, big loss for Democrats in MontanaBig Country News · 3 days agoIndependent U.S. Senate candidate Seth Bodnar, left, talks with supporters downtown Missoula on election night 2026. (Keila Szpaller/Daily Montanan) In the “blue wave” that washed over the country this week, liberals in Montana notched…
  • Montana voters back the "Montana Plan," a direct challenge to corporate election spendingBriefs Finance · 4 days agoVoters in Montana signed off on Initiative 194, widely dubbed the "Montana Plan," with roughly 65% support. It takes effect Jan. 1 in a state where ballot initiatives can create law, though the Republican-controlled legislature can still…
  • Montana Copies Hawaii's 'Corporate Personhood' Law, immediately gets sued@HawaiiFreePress · 3 days agoCurrent Articles | Archives | Search First Amendment Lawsuit Challenges Montana Limits on Political Speech Institute for Free Speech represents Frontier Institute, Frontier Action Fund, and Montana Republican State Central Committee in…
  • Montana Unexpectedly Sheds Light On Killing Off Citizens UnitedDaily Kos · 3 days agoCNBC has an article up on how Montana basically just outlawed Citizens United in their state. Initiative 194, called The Montana Plan, contends that corporations cannot fund political campaigns in Montana without losing certain privileges…
  • “Montana Plan” challenged in federal courtYPR · 3 days agoHours after voters overwhelmingly approved Initiative 194, commonly known as “the Montana Plan,” a legal challenge has been filed against Attorney General Austin Knudsen and Secretary of State Christi Jacobsen. The measure bans so-called…

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions